Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

A sprawling upper-level ridge remains anchored over the southern high
plains, drifting slightly westward on Friday. Water vapor imagery
shows a modest sub-tropical moisture plume running from the Gulf of
California across Arizona and New Mexico and on northeast into the
central High Plains, with another moisture plume moving over deep
south Texas in conjunction with a small tropical wave moving into
northeast MX. Neither of these plumes will affect our forecast area,
although we could see additional late day t-storm activity across
central and northern New Mexico which in turn could provide some more
cloud cover on the western horizon around sunset. Otherwise,
above normal temps will persist, with highs mainly in the upper
90s to about 102 or 103 in the Rolling Plains. Lubbock recorded a
record warm low temp this morning - only dropping to 77 degrees.
We expect a very mild night again, with lows ranging in the upper
60s in the west to upper 70s in the low Rolling Plains.

Forecast remains largely on track as the center of a broad ridge
is still favored to retreat to around the Four Corners by Friday
night while deamplifying through the weekend. Models are now at
bigger odds with each other regarding precip chances by early next
week - much of which stems from a secondary high center wobbling
east over the Panhandles. The GFS is the most bullish with this
ancillary high and consequently is nearly void of precip for the
local area due to stronger subsidence. Such a departure from earlier
runs is not enough to hang one`s hat on yet, especially since the
overall pattern of improved PWs and lower thicknesses would support
some episodic showers and storms. The brunt of these precip chances
should favor our NW counties beginning Sunday evening near a surface
trough and modest monsoonal moisture. This moisture axis is still
favored to shear eastward within the flattening ridge and help
breed a few storms just about anywhere in the CWA through mid-
week. Max temps will ease after Saturday as winds from 700mb and
below turn more southeasterly.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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