Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 202313
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The focus remains on thunderstorm potential this weekend as upper
level ridging and dry mid to upper levels are replaced by a
weakness in the ridge and the return of some monsoonal deeper
moisture arriving from the west. Thunderstorm chances should be
limited to the western quarter of the area Saturday afternoon and
evening during the initial phase of this transition. Better
chances remain on tap for Sunday and Monday. Sunday`s chances may
be enhanced by a weak cold front that will move into the
Panhandle. Even if the front stays to our north, storms associated
with the front will move southward. Confidence is slowly
increasing, especially for the northern half of the forecast area,
and have nudged PoPs upwards. Could be a repeat on Monday as a
weak short wave trough ejects across the southern/central High
Plains. Afterwards, upper ridging builds back over the region with
rain chances diminishing accordingly. No argument with model
initialization and MOS temps through the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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