Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Largely VFR with some intermittent MVFR CIGs possible at CDS today
and again tonight. Otherwise, a weak front/dryline about to cross
LBB and PVW will swing winds SW from 10-15 knots, before slowing
and passing CDS tonight. Until this FROPA at CDS, low clouds
and/or fog could redevelop after sunset.

Thickening mid clouds will reach LBB and PVW later this afternoon
and likely produce some sprinkles or light rain at times.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

Unfortunately, chances of measurable precipitation look to be
fleeting with every model run including the latest ones. High
resolution models are looking dismal in their solutions. Most if
not all keep all convection east of the Rolling Plains with only
sprinkles or light rain on the caprock.

Strong lift from the upper low that devastated California will begin
to spread over the region later this morning. Upper level jet winds
will be on the increase with height falls spreading in from the
west. The best upper level divergence from the upper level jet will
unfortunately be east of West Texas this evening. Farther west on
the caprock, we will see lift within a layer of mid and upper level
moisture over a dry low level atmosphere. This will likely lead to
sprinkles or virga showers on the caprock. Convection chances are
not looking promising for the Rolling Plains this afternoon. Low
stratus and fog still working its way in from the east will likely
persist until at least early afternoon. This will clearly keep
instability fairly minimal. Model soundings indicate too much CIN
for the atmosphere to overcome to develop convection.

Primary focus remains on wind potential Thursday. An upper low,
currently just south of the Aleutian Islands, will drop southeast
through the eastern Pacific, crossing the west coast Wednesday,
then the Front Range into the central plains late Thursday. The
GFS version of things to come has somewhat opened this system,
while the ECMWF is more closed. But both major models have similar
track and timing. And they both tighten height fields across the
southern high plains late Thursday. It appears the strongest wind
fields may not pass until Thursday night, which may give the area
a break from strongest surface winds as well. But wind speeds
should still increase to significant levels by Thursday afternoon
on the Caprock, at least. Current best-guess is for Wind Advisory
but not out of woods yet for a high wind threat, as well. We
continued to lean towards ConsMos wind forecasts. And we also
retained the blowing dust mention, though confidence in how thick
it may be is not high.

Otherwise, Monday will feature dry northerly flow on the backside
of the departing upper trough. A nice day, all around. Tuesday
will be warming with an upper ridge passage, and should see
typical low level southwest breezes. Increasing southwest flow
aloft Wednesday will tighten a surface trough Wednesday with
modest westerly breezes helping enhance warming - it should be in
the 80s.

Following the wind Thursday, a modest cold front is expected early
Friday dropping highs to or at least toward normal levels. Warming
is expected heading into next weekend. Another upper trough is on
the horizon for late next weekend, perhaps with a bit more
amplitude, and may bring at least low consideration of thunder
chances for day 8 - Sunday. We`ll take more of a look at this in
the days ahead. RMcQueen

Current expectations are for critical, and possibly extremely
critical, fire weather conditions to develop for areas on the
Caprock Thursday. Strong wind fields will be overspreading the
area with deep mixing almost all the way up to 600 millibars.
Wind speeds appear capable of at least low-end critical, and very
well could be higher. Relative humidity levels near or below 15
percent are expected. And fuels may become more receptive
following very warm, dry, and breezy conditions the day prior.




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