Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 040428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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