Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
820 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Thunderstorms that were slow to get going earlier in the evening
have cranked up a notch at sunset. We are seeing an increase in
weak energy from northern Mexico into southwest Texas, and a
typical diurnal increase in low level southeasterly flow. The
dryline has retreated a bit further west but is fairly quiet at
the moment. Two zones have become relatively more active as we
anticipated: one around Caprock Canyons now spreading through Hall
towards Childress. And the other in the Southland to Post and just
north of Justiceburg areas. We have updated for a flash flood
watch for Hall and Childress Counties until midnight, as we are
seeing a tendency for some right turning and slowing and this is
the area that received excessive rainfall last evening. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Thunderstorms have been struggling gaining much traction east of
KLBB and KPVW and west of KCDS. A dryline runs from KLBB to KPVW
and should retreat enough in the evening for low level southeast
flow to remain at both sites. The thunder cluster west of KCDS
does not appear imminent to approach so we are leaving mention out
of this taf forecast. Upper level forcing may yet improve later in
the evening but short range solutions are not indicating any
significant thunder development. Later tonight the low level south
to southeast flow should moisten enough for an MVFR cloud layer
most likely spreading into all sites, and perhaps even an LIFR
cloud layer reaching KCDS towards daybreak Tuesday. Low clouds
should typically break up mid to late morning. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

As in the previous discussion, the atmosphere this afternoon has
become extremely energized over the eastern half of our area for a
risk of very large hail and with enough shear to support at least an
isolated tornado threat. The dryline remains just east of yesterdays
location, but not much. Already seeing bubbling convection over
northern Briscoe and Hall counties, within the convergence zone left
over from last evening. And a more expansive cumulus field lies
across southeast parts of our area. Anyway, a tornado watch has been
issued through 10 pm this evening. We expect a cluster or two,
probably tied closely to the existing low level convergence
boundaries, to move through eastern counties this afternoon into the
early evening. Flooding remains a possible concern but short range
solutions continue to bank on better storm movement today, so still
withholding a flash flood watch at this time. Activity should
progress east by late evening with activity most likely dwindling
later tonight but some solutions support development later tonight
as the dryline retreats west so we will maintain a low chance of
thunder later tonight as well. Otherwise, we expect low clouds to
expand back west to Lubbock as least, as well as over the Rolling

Tuesday is appearing as yet another day with potential severe
storms. Southwest flow aloft will remain perhaps slightly more
backed as low pressure moves from central California into the
southwest. Lower atmosphere will remain very moist and energetic. A
dryline once more will mix somewhere over the eastern south plains
during the afternoon with chance severe supported along and to the
east. RMcQueen

An active dryline pattern will continue for the area for the rest
of this week. Although, less active for the South Plains and more
likely active for the Rolling Plains. Things may become more
active area wide over the weekend into next week.

We will continue to stay in some form of southwesterly flow aloft
through the week. This will come from a slow moving trough across
the southwestern US this week. Much of the area will see dry
westerly winds west of the dryline with the dryline mixing well to
the east. The upper level trough axis will finally cross the
region on Thursday along with stronger jet level winds. The
dryline may not push east of the Rolling Plains on Thursday
allowing for strong instability to develop over the eastern
Rolling Plains.

The pattern looks to turn more active for a wider area beginning
late this weekend. Westerly flow aloft will back to the southwest
again in advance of additional troughs carving out in the
southwestern US drawing the dryline well back into eastern New
Mexico. Another extended period of thunderstorm activity would
occur through mid week with models showing a deep trough digging
into southern California.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ025-026.



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