Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 111732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1132 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR Conditions will persist. A weak FROPA will bring a northerly
wind shift through the terminals this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

A rex block still loitering along the Pacific Coastline will remain
largely intact this week until a parade of North Pacific troughs
finally collapse the ridge o/a Friday, and pave the way toward a
flatter and more progressive flow regime for much of the CONUS.
The low attendant to this rex block is shown to inch southward
through the Gulf of California this week, but remain largely
absent of moisture. While the GFS and some of its ensembles depict
the remnants of this low phasing with a northern trough by this
weekend and even tracking east across south Texas, remaining
models keep this low displaced well south of the border with no
effects locally. As such, our dry stretch (par for the course in
these parts during a La Nina winter) will continue for at least
the next seven days under barren NW flow with periodic `cold`
fronts. The first such modified front arrives this afternoon,
followed by another modest cool push Wed evening, with another
underachieving front at some point on Saturday. Neither of these
fronts appear capable of dropping highs to below climatological
norms, so enjoy the low heating bills until the inevitable Arctic
invasion arrives at some point this winter.

The only two changes introduced with this forecast package were
to raise high temps a couple degrees most days both ahead of and
behind the fronts (due largely to the ease in which we`ve been
able to warm in this dry airmass), and to favor much breezier
downslope winds by Fri and Sat as the base of a broad northern
stream trough impinges on the southern High Plains. This pattern
by Fri and especially Sat is checking boxes for some wildfire
growth potential, but is still well short in the vigor department
for anything more substantial.




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