Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 151141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK
UP BY LATE MORNING. A 40-40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 AM...TEMPS WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK...WITH THE WEST TEXAS MESONET STATION NEAR SILVERTON COMING
IN AT ONLY 19 DEGREES. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS TO ALSO
DROP BELOW FREEZING SOON AND A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM CDT.

SURFACE RIDING THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE TOUGHING AS UPPER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FROM NW TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SW BREEZES
WILL RETURN AND TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION.
BROAD CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IT FROM
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN EMERGING OVER THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT...SO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO LOW-END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY...INITIALLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ON THE
CAPROCK DURING THE MORNING...THEN PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...AND WITH THE UPPER LIFT GRAZING THE AREA TO THE
NORTH...THERE IS A SLIM SHOT OF A SHOWER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON THURSDAY CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIKE THEY WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WHERE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER... RESPECTIVELY...BUT WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THURSDAY/S FRONT WILL
GO BEFORE STALLING OUT. THE 00Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT DOWN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN
EITHER CASE...IT WILL NOT GO VERY FAR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN OF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON HOW COLD THE SOUTH
PLAINS GET THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
NAM...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DIP BACK INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST SPOTS. REGARDLESS...RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY
ENSUE FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS MOVING INTO THE
WEST. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IT
IS PROGGED TO HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE
DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SO THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPERIENCE A RAPID MOISTENING BY SATURDAY. AT
LEAST WEAK UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THE RARE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID START POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA
AFTER 12Z AND MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY SHIFT
EAST. WE CONSIDERED RAISING POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT
GIVEN THIS IS DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST AND MANY THINGS CAN YET
CHANGE...PLUS THE FACT WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A 3+ YEAR
DROUGHT...WE DID NOT WANT TO RAISE HOPES T0O HIGH YET. SHOWER
CHANCES COULD PERSIST LATE INTO THE WEEKEND...DEPENDING HOW FAST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY FOR NOW.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THUS...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD
BE THE RULE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
A DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN SPLNS TODAY WITH BREEZY SWERLY WINDS THE RESULT. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DUE TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR AVERAGE...COUPLED WITH DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  40  76  38  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         64  38  75  40  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  38  76  41  63 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  40  78  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  40  76  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  38  78  42  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  37  78  43  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     67  40  76  49  64 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          64  37  76  47  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     65  39  75  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

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