Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 262329
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
The brief period of thunderstorm risk has largely ended for the
night at all three terminals as outflow winds. Some variation and
gustiness will be possible through about 02Z as outflow
boundaries track through KPVW and KLBB. Thunderstorms will be
possible at all three terminals Wednesday afternoon though
confidence in timing precludes mention at this time. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected to persist during the entire cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Our high pressure ridge has moved well west of the area, and in
response, we had northerly winds for part of the day. Winds have
begun to turn more easterly and should turn more southerly
overnight. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity had started to
break out along the edge of the Caprock and parts of the Rolling
Plains by 1 PM, though the coverage was much less than yesterday.
Water vapor imagery showed the best fetch of Gulf moisture to be in
these areas, but it was slowly moving westward as the high weakened.
In addition, with the weakening of the high, monsoonal moisture was
moving across NM and into parts of the TX Panhandle.

For the rest of this afternoon into early evening, expect to see
continuation of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Once
loss of daytime heating occurs, this activity should quickly fall
apart. Southeasterly winds tomorrow will usher in more moisture and
once again give us a shot at afternoon thunderstorm activity. The
activity will be weakly forced again and fueled by daytime heating,
so pinpointing a time and place for initiation cannot be done with
great certainty. However, the increased moisture will result in
highs near normal once again for tomorrow.

LONG TERM...
Summer dog day doldrums will continue for the next several days with
diurnal chances for deep moist convection hanging around, but likely
dwindling by the weekend. Pretty straightforward forecast as upper
high that had translated westward into the southwestern conus,
thereby giving a northerly flow aloft to the region and slight rain
chances, is forecast to build back eastward with a flatter ridge,
weak west northwest flow aloft and increased subsidence likely.
Low to mid level thicknesses will rise gradually through early to
mid week next week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms
farther north and west, from the southern Rockies into the central
Plains. This would mean a slight rise in temperatures beginning
Friday and continuing into next week. Blended pops look reasonable
with slight chance fading to non-mention by Saturday afternoon and
beyond.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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