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000
FXUS64 KLUB 211133
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
633 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
SHRA and TSRA activity across the western South Plains may
approach KLBB and/or KPVW between about 12 and 15 UTC. However,
confidence was too low to include a TEMPO for either terminal.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with considerable mid and upper-
level cloud cover early, gradually thinning through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Clouds. Will there be clouds today? Will clouds mess up the viewing
of an event that can`t be "rescheduled" until 2024? It`s the number
one question meteorologists have been asked for weeks, and the day
has finally come. For our forecast area, we will average about 75
percent totality, meaning 75 percent of the sun will be obscured.
So, how many of you on the South and Rolling Plains will get to
observe this phenomenon? Here`s the short answer...it`s looking
rather iffy. Here`s the more detailed answer. Water vapor imagery
shows a large plume of moisture over the Trans-Pecos this morning
moving NNE with its sights on the South and Rolling Plains as well
as the TX Panhandle. Models show this plume spreading into the
region during the peak of the eclipse. The GFS, Euro and RAP all
show mid and upper level cloudiness spreading across much of the
forecast area, with only the far southeastern reaches into the
Rolling Plains having a shot of seeing the solar show. The one
exception is the NAM which keeps the cloud line further back on
the Caprock but east of Lubbock. For this forecast, went with the
majority of models for cloudiness. Add in a quick shortwave to
fire up convection along the TX/NM border, and the only show some
folks may be seeing out west is a lightning show. If there`s any
good out of this, you won`t have to wait another 99 years...2024
is the next total solar eclipse, and that one will cross over
Texas!

Next order of matter is a cold front on Tuesday. The GFS wants to
bring the front in a bit faster than other models, with it coming
through Tuesday evening with storms. It then has it stall just south
of the forecast area. The Euro is the slowest with the front waiting
until the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday morning, yet
still with storms and still stalling just south of the forecast
area. The NAM is right in between the two and stalls out across our
southern border. Most likely solution is a bit later FROPA, such as
the NAM, but those details can be worked out much better with the
short-term models when available. Where the front stalls will have
an impact on our rain chances through the end of the week. Too far
south, and we`ll remain dry, which will also have an impact on end
of week temperatures. However, NW will return for the weekend
allowing storms to creep back in for a couple of days.

At the beginning of next week, a Gulf tropical cyclone looks to hit
Mexico just south of the Texas border. The GFS moves the storm
quickly inland and across MX, which would limit the impact to our
moisture. The Euro on the other hand, pushes the cyclone somewhat
inland and has it meander around NE MX and south TX. This would not
only cut off the tap for our moisture, but also be a terrible
situation for those under the storm. There are many more models runs
to watch, so we`ll see how this system pans out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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