National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLUB 070827
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
227 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...
WITH THE WINTER STORM BEHIND US...LEFT IN ITS WAKE ARE TEMPS IN THE
LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS PER 8Z METARS...AND WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 C
FOR A FEW LOCALES ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS SOME COULD APPROACH/BRIEFLY EQUATE ADVISORY CRITERIA /-5F TO
-15F WITH A 10 MPH WIND/. TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES OF DIMMITT AND
WHITE RIVER LAKE FITS THE CRITERIA FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT
WILL OPT TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL SITES COMES ABOARD BEFORE ISSUING AN
ADVISORY ATTM. THE RECORD LOW TEMP TODAY FOR KLBB IS 8 DEGREES F
SET IN 2005 WITH A FORECASTED TEMP OF 6 DEGREES F. THUS FAR THE
TEMP IS 13 DEGREES F AND FALLING...AND WE CAN VERY WELL BREAK THE
RECORD LATER THIS MORNING. THOSE TRAVELING EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
URGED TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY AND WATCH OUT FOR ICE ON THE GROUND
THAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY MELTED.

ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN
OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA...AND THEREBY PROMOTING SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT EAST TO NERLY SFC WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN RATHER SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND IN COMBINATION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE /THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE DRAWING NEAR/ HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED BELOW FREEZING MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST THE UA DISTURBANCE TREKS TO
NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND HENCE ESTABLISHES INCREASING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...THOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TODAY. ADDING TO THIS
DREARY WX WILL BE VERY COLD DAYTIME TEMPS /STRUGGLING TO SURPASS THE
TEENS/ THANKS TO A DOMINATING 1030+ MB SFC RIDGE.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...UPGLIDE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND HAVE ADDED A FLURRY/FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR LOCALES
ONLY OFF THE CAPROCK...WITH SILENT WX AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SSW DUE TO LEE SFC TROUGHING NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER
THE SFC RIDGE WILL STUBBORNLY PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA...LEADING TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS SERN
COLO THEN MOVING SEWD WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT SWLY WINDS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DISLODGING THE COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO EDGE WARMER FOR SUNDAYS HIGHS. WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND BUT ALSO UNDERCUT AGAIN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
EFFICIENTLY WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODELS STILL BRINGING ANOTHER PIECE OF COLD AIR IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER TROUGH
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH GFS
ATTM THE ONLY MODEL BREAK PRECIP ATTM. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM AND
WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO CLARIFY.

MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN STILL APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND OF
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE...FAVORING A WARMING TREND AND POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL UNCERTAIN
THE EXTENT OF WRMING. ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN
TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MEX MOS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO LATER PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        14  10  43  10  26 /  10  10   0   0  10
TULIA         14  10  41  10  26 /  10  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     14  10  43  11  27 /  10  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     15  11  47  16  29 /  10  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       15  10  46  14  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   17  16  47  19  29 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    16  14  47  18  30 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  10  40  10  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          17  11  44  15  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     19  12  42  14  29 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07