Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER STABLE WITH MVFR
PREVAILING AT KLBB/KPVW AND VFR AT KCDS. WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
VFR AT THE FORMER TWO SITES ON AND OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME -RA GIVEN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH IS INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY AT KLBB THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT AS EXPECTED WITH SOME STRONGER
CORES OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM A
WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SKIRT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. BECAUSE OF THIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE ABLE TO DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
EAST...STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION BRINGING
DOWNGLIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TOMORROW BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BUT AN ABSENCE OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH MORE THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SHORTWAVE DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION.
HELD OFF MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO CHANGE
THE AMOUNT...COVERAGE...AND TIMING OF STORMS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER THAT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA EVENTUALLY MOVING OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE HELPING TO KEEP SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP AND ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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