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000
FXUS64 KLUB 112016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS TROUGH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT MID-AFTN...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A RELATIVE LULL IN WINDS IN THE VCNTY OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM FRIONA TO LUBBOCK TO ASPERMONT AT 20Z.
MAIN CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO PROG AN AREA OF INTENSE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE FRONT /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 MB PER 3 HRS/ WITH THE CENTER OF
THOSE PRESSURE RISES MOVING SSWWD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WRN ZONES. THIS PATTERN IS A FAIRLY FAMILIAR AND ONE THAT CAN
GENERATE SOME STRONG WINDS. MOS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA IN THE
NWRN ZONES GENERALLY NORTH OF A MORTON TO TULIA LINE AND WILL ISSUE
A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE
MET ELSEWHERE.

WINDS MAY DROP OFF BELOW BREEZY LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT INITIAL
MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE SOME UNTIL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...NO
ARGUMENTS WITH MOS ATTM WHICH IS LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALONG WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND RENEWED
LEE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO A WARMUP THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOP DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BE IN EFFECT...BUT AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN TO APPEAR TOO ANEMIC TO WARRANT POPS
HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT. DISCREPANCIES STILL REMAIN AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TOWARD AN APPROACHING SYSTEM RIDING DOWN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE. EXACTLY HOW FAR
WEST THIS FEATURE CAN MAKE IT WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...A POSITIVE TILT DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NONETHELESS...A COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
FALLING FROM THE MID 60S-LOW 70S TO 50S-60S SUNDAY BEHIND AN EARLY
DAY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMUP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES
DEVELOP. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE IN THE OFFING TOWARD THE END
OF OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOLID RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS IDEA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ENDING ABOUT 03Z REMAINS VALID AND WILL THUS MAKE NO CHANGE TO
ONGOING WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  52  25  60  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         29  55  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     31  55  26  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  55  26  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  56  28  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   34  55  26  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    34  56  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  31  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  59  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  60  29  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-029>044.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

07/31