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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161059
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
559 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

24 hours ago, winds were howling, dust was blowing and temperatures
were quickly dropping behind a fast moving cold front. Tonight, with
extremely dry air aloft, there`s not a cloud in sight, and winds are
light to calm. This will set the theme for most of the week.

Beginning today, we`ll find ourselves on the eastern edge of a ridge
with northwesterly flow aloft. Deep drying will persist, so calm,
clear skies are to be expected. As flow turns a bit more to the west-
southwest (zonal) by late Tuesday, a few more high clouds will
work their way into the region. Flow splits mid-week with strong
zonal flow staying across the northern tier of the U.S., while a
few weak waves ripple across the otherwise, zonal, southerly flow.
Early on, these look to do little for our weather, however, late
week, we will see one of these waves hang up over the Central and
Southern Plains creating backed flow. This looks to pull moisture
(both Pacific and Gulf) back into the region with perfect timing.
On Friday morning, our next feature of interest, a trough over the
Pac NW, develops and pushes eastward. A southern lobe deepens on
this trough as it progresses eastward, stretching into the
Southern Plains by the middle of the weekend. There is some model
disagreement on the timing and strength of this trough as it
approaches the forecast area, which has great bearing on placement
and likelihood of PoPs attm. However, they all agree that a front
will be dragged through the region late Saturday or early Sunday,
meaning a return to more fall-like temps by the end of the
weekend.

For this forecast package, adjusted temps up slightly for Tuesday
with southwesterly winds at the surface. Also, pushed winds higher
on Saturday morning as a 35-40 KT LLJ looks to develop early morning
through sunrise. Again, raised winds over the Blend late Saturday
into Sunday with the frontal passage.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

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