Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 182326
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
526 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.AVIATION...

Gusty winds should decrease to around 15 knots shortly after
sunset. There is potential for some MVFR ceilings overnight, but
confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Winds will
increase again Monday afternoon from the southwest around 20
knots with gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level southwesterly flow has set up across the region and will
remain in place through the forecast period thanks to the continued
southward digging of an upper level Pacific trough to our west. As
this occurs over the next several days bouts of energy will be sent
across the CWA.

Today, a decent low level jet will develop helping deeper moisture
return to the area. As a result 40 to 50 degree dewpoints will be
present across the FA. This afternoon a dryline-like feature will
develop across the FA giving the far southeastern corner of the
Rolling Plains a brief opportunity for light precipitation this
evening. Have keep POPs low as precip development will be dependent
on there being enough lift along the dryline. The dryline feature
will stick around through Monday afternoon before being pushed east
by drier air.

Tomorrow, mixing will occur as an upper level shortwave crosses the
region. The energy from the shortwave will help tighten pressure
gradients, leading to stronger afternoon winds. The threat of
elevated Fire Weather continues. Temperatures will be warm
temperatures and higher wind values are expected but, it does looks
like a decent amount of low level moisture will be left behind from
the LLJ keeping the RH values just above critical values.

Tuesday afternoon, an upper level short wave will move through the
area ahead of a backdoor cold front that is progged to move through
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will create a rather
cool day on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 40s. The cooler
air will linger on Thursday resulting in highs in the 50s.

Friday through the end of the weekend is where the forecast
challenge lies in terms of precipitation for our area. The guidance
for Friday is indicating that low/mid level moisture will once again
move over the area. Depending on what model you believe there could
be a rain event on Friday. As stated in the previous forecast, it
will all be dependent on when the dryline pushes east drying us back
out and whether there will be any precipitation along the dryline.
Have continued POPs on the lower end of guidance during the last
periods due to the differences in the models.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/08


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