Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151723
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Surface observations show the cold front continuing to push well
south of our forecast area with gusty northwest winds expected
overnight and for much of the day tomorrow before winds begin to
subside in speed tonight. Thick overcast and persistent northwest
winds will lead to much cooler temperatures today with highs in the
40s and 50s. With this in mind, high temperatures have been lowered
several degrees from NBM which is likely too warm given the expected
conditions.

An upper level low is expected to continue to move very little and
spin over the western United States today but with southwesterly
flow aloft increasing and several weak shortwaves moving across West
Texas. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop across the
South Plains this morning with model guidance showing strong
isentropic ascent in the 295-305 K surfaces (roughly around 850 to
650 mb). High-res guidance shows a band of scattered rain showers
moving northeast from the South Plains around daybreak today and
continuing across the forecast area into the southern Texas
Panhandle by midday. Models show a lull in rain shower activity
beginning in the afternoon and lasting through early tonight before
our next batch of precipitation arrives. Forecast instability
parameters are low but some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
with this activity this morning and through early afternoon. Rain
totals should generally range from a few hundreths of an inch up to
several tenths of an inch, but some localized areas could approach a
quarter of an inch this morning, especially in the South Plains
where some isolated and brief downpours may be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The pattern this weekend and into next week remains consistent with
the Rex Block, resulting in the upper low spinning over the Desert
Southwest. A longwave trough will swing southward out of Canada into
the Midwest and eastward across the East Coast through early next
week. Several rounds of rain showers are possible through this time
frame. A surface high will set up along the lee side of the Rockies
with upslope flow across the forecast area. Moist 700mb isentropic
lift will help to give way to rain showers Saturday morning and
afternoon with PWATs up to 1.0" in some areas. Very weak elevated
instability Saturday morning may lead to a few rumbles of thunder as
well. Heavy rainfall is not likely with dry air present in the
midlevels. QPF values for Saturday are around 0.1-0.25" with a
corridor of up to 0.5" of rainfall possible across the Rolling
Plains. Several more rounds of light rain showers remain possible
Sunday through Wednesday with the chances remaining low due to the
unknown timing of the forward progression of the upper low.

Below normal temperatures Saturday in the 50s with cloudy skies and
rain showers. These cooler temperatures in the 50s to 60s will
persist through Tuesday as the surface ridge builds southward into
Texas. Late next week, temperatures will begin to rebound with a
return of downsloping southwesterly surface flow due to lee
troughing as the upper low begins to slide eastward. Models are
trending towards the upper low becoming an open wave by late next
week as it passes over the Central Plains. If this pattern plays
out, there will a potential cold front passage towards the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Showers and isolated thunder to continue to lift northeastward
across the Rolling Plains and eastern TX Panhandle early in the
TAF period. Ceilings have/will briefly improve with and
immediately behind the precipitation, but MVFR ceilings should
fill back in behind, especially at KLBB and KPVW, before some
improvements back to VFR late afternoon into the evening before
deteriorating again overnight. The next round of showers will come
toward sunrise Saturday. Instability looks to be more limited
than this morning and will run without a TS mention for that
period at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07


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