Area Forecast Discussion
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035
FXUS64 KLUB 081003
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
403 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A low amplitude upper level impulse over far West Texas early this
morning will scoot to our south across southwest Texas today. A
light snow band is expected to remain just to our south, but we may
see just enough mid level lift and saturation for flurries mainly
near our western and southern border areas. Otherwise a cold, cloudy
morning is on the way, perhaps with some thinning clouds later today
once the impulse passes by to our south and southeast. Guidance
temperatures have trended slightly colder for today and we have
followed this trend as well; it will be a struggle to reach freezing
today, especially on the Caprock.

Tonight a cold surface ridge will nose across our eastern zones
while surface pressure falls will bring surface flow back from the
south later in the night. Low level moisture will be quite depleted,
but will attempt to return along our western border in the low level
warm air advection pattern. We have added a mention of light
freezing drizzle in this area with isentropic upglide expected
though overall moisture quality questionable. No significant
temperature changes from the previous forecast. RMcQueen

.LONG TERM...

Continued the mention of patchy light drizzle through noon Friday as
the conditions discussed above will still exist, though be tapering
throughout the morning. Thicknesses will be on the increase starting
Friday, but 850 mb temperatures will still be a bit on the low side
keeping Friday in the 40s. However, Saturday`s breezy southwesterly
winds and westerly zonal flow aloft will help to advect drier and
warmer air into the forecast area. The first of two cold fronts for
next week arrives on Sunday, though with the latest model runs, it
appears to be arriving late in the day allowing for a decent amount
of warming to occur Sunday. Blend came in at the lower 60s, which we
chose to increase by a degree or two, but the GFS MOS guidance of
upper 60s to 70 seems a bit warm at this point. Should the front be
delayed further, though, these temperatures could be conceivable,
especially across the southern half of the CWA.

The second, and stronger of the two cold fronts for the week
actually starts its trek our way this weekend when a low pushes
south out of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago into the northern
Canadian territories. This airmass will start out with H850 temps
around -30 to -35 C, so even though it has quite the distance to
travel, it should be a decently strong cold front. MOS Guidance is
beginning to reflect this, and we are in general agreement with
this. Therefore, raised winds for Tuesday with FROPA and dropped
temps a couple degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as
Wednesday morning. As we head into the weekend and watch the airmass
dislodge, we will start to form a better idea of whether or not
we`re headed towards another cold snap like the current one.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/74



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