Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 150433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THUS FAR...TRENDS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR TO BE LARGELY RIGHT ON
TRACK. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT ARE
TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NWP ESTIMATES.  THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WARM BIAS MAY OCCUR IN URBAN LUBBOCK THOUGH UPPER 20S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY. INVERSION HEIGHT LOOKS TO BE UP IN THE 500 TO 1500
FT RANGE THUS MAKING MITIGATION ATTEMPTS DIFFICULT FOR AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS EVEN WITH THE USE OF HELICOPTERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE LAST EVENT OF THIS CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CYCLE WILL BE THE
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER BUT WE DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER TONIGHTS
MINIMUMS WHICH SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE COLD VERY DRY AIR...CLEAR
SKIES...AND WINDS TURNING MUCH LIGHTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. OPTED TO FLIP THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING VALID FOR
THE SAME AREA AND TIME FRAME. WE CONTINUE TO ARGUE THAT THE ODD
TETRAS SHAPED AREA IN OUR NORTHWEST HAS YET TO REACH THE START OF
THE GROWING SEASON...AS WE DEFINE IT BY THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST
FREEZE IN THE SPRING...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION IN THE FREEZE
WARNING EVEN THOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
WITHIN THIS AREA. NOTE ALSO THAT WE DO NOT ISSUE A HARD FREEZE
PRODUCT AS OUR NEIGHBORS TO OUR NORTH DO...ALTHOUGH OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. TUESDAY WILL SEE
DECENT RECOVERY BY THE AFTERNOON AFTER SUCH A CHILLY START...WITH
HIGHS BACK MOSTLY INTO THE MID 60S. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL TURN
FAIRLY BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH MANY AREAS AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE-SOUTH PLAINS REGION. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WHILE THE CURRENT DRY SPELL IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM.

TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD TUESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS WILL BE
SITUATED UNDERNEATH FLAT RIDGING AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND
IN BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRIVE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO VERY GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTHWARD FOLLOWING TODAYS COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE
SURGED BEYOND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THAT POINT. THIS WILL BE A
SLOW PROCESS... SLOW ENOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE LOW
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. WHILE MODEST AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INDEED REACH THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUICKLY PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTH BY A MILD
COLD FRONT COURTESY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE IMPROVED MOISTURE...HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.
AND...WHILE THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MILD IN COMPARISON TO THE
FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA...A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

FROM HERE...DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW KEY SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS THAT
SUGGEST THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME
MORE ACTIVE...AS A BAGGY...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD IN MULTIPLE PARTS.
MEANWHILE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE WEAKENED THURSDAYS COLD
FRONT TO THE POINT THAT IT NO LONGER PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
TEXAS BEFORE WASHING OUT.  THIS LATTER TREND INCREASES THE
PROBABILITY THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...AND POTENTIALLY AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE THE TIMING AND NATURE OF THIS WAVE
REMAIN A RELATIVE QUESTION MARK...IT DOES APPEAR THAT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORTHY OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  21  65  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  22  64  38  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  24  64  38  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  23  65  39  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  26  64  39  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  27  64  39  82 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  27  64  39  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  28  67  39  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  26  65  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  29  66  41  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-028>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26





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