Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 290849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an anticyclone churning over
the Great Basin with the eastern extent of the ridge nosing into
Texas while broad troughing was in place from the Midwest through
the eastern CONUS. Several embedded disturbance were traversing the
broad cyclonic flow including one that was supporting continued
convection from northeast New Mexico into southern/western Kansas
and northwestern Oklahoma as of 08Z. The brunt of the lift will be
directed to our northeast though we could see a little activity
attempt to graze the northern/northeast zones later this morning as
it tries to develop southward into a weakening and veering LLJ. Even
if showers/storms don`t make it into the FA this morning, it will
help push an effective front a bit further south from yesterday.
This frontal zone (likely sitting across the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon) along with the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado
will serve as a focus for afternoon and early evening convective
development. Although the storms may initiate north and northwest of
the CWA, northerly mid-level flow atop a 30 knot southerly LLJ will
bring a better shot of storms propagating into the northern zones
Friday evening/night. Similar to what we are seeing well to our
north early this morning, there may be enough instability to support
a few strong to marginal severe storms. Hence, we have maintained a
low thunder mention across the northeastern zones today, expanding
to solid chance PoPs across the north this evening/tonight, with
lower chances with southern extent.

Minimal change in thicknesses and progged 850 mb temperatures over
yesterday should secure temperatures very similar to Thursday,
slightly to the high side of average.

A series of shortwaves moving across the central Rockies will
keep the upper ridge over the southwest states fairly suppressed
through Sunday. However, the energetic northwest flow aloft and
baroclinic zone at the surface will remain to our north during
this period, keeping our weather pretty quiet. We can`t rule out
some isolated t-storms Saturday and Sunday afternoons - especially
across the western South Plains - but the signals are too weak to
mention in the grids. As we move into next week, and the next
month, the upper ridge will begin to migrate eastward and
strengthen, until it is centered over east TX by Tuesday. Although
this will keep hot temperatures in the forecast for the area, it
will also direct the sub-tropical moisture plume toward West Texas
as weak troughing develops across the desert southwest. We should
see a better chance of late afternoon and evening t-storm activity
across western portions of the forecast area as early as
Wednesday. Unfortunately, it will likely remain hot and dry in the
Rolling Plains. The upper ridge may shift even farther east into
the Ark-La-Tex region late in the week, which may allow temps to
cool down a bit toward average and could also support some rain
chances. The average high temp at Lubbock begins it`s slow descent
on Aug 5th (from 93 to 92).


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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