Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 261744 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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