Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Low CIGS may be here to stay at KPVW and KCDS. A break in the low
stratus may occur at KLBB for the next few hours before filling
back in. These low CIGS will likely persist through the mid
afternoon at KCDS with the cloud deck dissipating by late morning
at KLBB and KPVW. Although current thunderstorms are moving out of
the KCDS terminal, more thunderstorm development could move in
around sunrise. After clouds dissipate, strong winds will move in
from the west behind a passing upper level storm system. Early on
Friday evening, a strong cold front will move through bringing
strong northerly winds at all TAF sites.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017/

Frontal boundary appears to have stalled out across our southeast
corner late this afternoon, with low level moisture and convergence
this area. Warm and dry air spreading overhead effectively capping
through the afternoon, but should weaken during the evening. An
upper level trough will pull out of the Rockies and across the
central high plains midday Friday, with upper heights expected to
fall our area during the night. Potential for enough destabilization
to unleash fairly significant convective energy during the night.
And during the evening although capping inversion is an issue, the
boundary adds another factor with good low level turning. Anyway, we
have added severe thunderstorm mention mainly Rolling Plains during
the evening, and spreading back west onto parts of the Caprock later
in the night.

On Friday, with the wave kicking out to our north, low level flow
will veer leading to warming and drying again on the Caprock. A mild
and breezy day will occur, with strongest west to northwest winds
near the New Mexico border. Even Rolling Plains should see some
drying in lower levels. But looming to the north will be a rather
notable cold front expected to move into our northern zones late in
the afternoon, and central areas probably by early evening. RMcQueen

Upper low to move east from central KS to MO toward Saturday morning
as strong surface high builds in across West Texas. Looks windy
Friday evening with those strong winds continuing through Saturday
afternoon before winds diminish Sunday morning with a fairly cool
night with dewpoints drying into the 30s. In fact not out of the
question to see some frost across the SW Panhandle if winds are
light enough. Progressive pattern means a quick return to southerly
winds on back side of high upper level ridge axis
results in a nice warmer day with rising heights and temperatures
bouncing back from highs in the 60s Saturday to 70s Sunday

Next shortwave trough progged to move quickly across the central
Rockies early Monday with an eastward surge in a convergent surface
trough resulting in some low level forcing but a lack of return
moisture then will likely preclude any convective chances. Should be
warm and breezy however especially behind the trof/dryline with
toasty 80s back in the picture. Start to see some model differences
by Tuesday with handling of shortwave energy moving through
progressive flow with diverging solutions becoming more pronounced
by Thursday. GFS is certainly more agressive in its depiction of a
mid level low across the central Plains Thur while ECMWF holds
back significant troffing encroaching on West Texas Friday. In any
event...should be warm and dry most of next week with the dryline
potentially becoming more active late in the week with more upper
support lending to increasing convective chances. James




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