Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151741 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1141 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

18Z aviation discussion below. Updated to lower max temps
primarily in our southern counties where trends are clearly
favoring mostly upper 30s, and also to re-insert fog mention for
the duration of the afternoon. Even under recent TS at Lubbock,
fog did not mix out much at all unlike yesterday. Am inclined not
to issue a dense fog advisory as not all regional webcams are
under 1/4 mile, but will revisit this through the day.

Else, cloud tops are getting progressively colder from Tatum
southeast to Midland. This region is tied to the principle axis of
strong height falls spreading ENE ahead of a stout upper cyclone
just south of Ciudad Juarez. Hail growth CAPE is shown to be
nearing 200 J/kg in our SE zones and earlier a spotter in Lubbock
observed pea hail from rather tame TS. With strong lift arriving
in the coming hours, would expect more reports of small hail at
times, but greater threat is clearly heavy rain and flooding
urban following the widespread 1/2 to 1 inch amounts in the past
24 hours. Would expect some flood advisories if this thinking
holds up.


Continued LIFR in low CIGS and fog through tonight, likely
switching back to VFR late Monday morning. Until then, scattered
TS with small hail at times will affect LBB and PVW before
numerous TS arrive around 2-4 PM, and a bit later at CDS.




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