Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AT KLBB THIS MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS BUT GIVEN
THE SETUP...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO IFR LEVELS
/70 PCT CONFIDENCE/ AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES
EXIST AT BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  10  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  20  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  20  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  20  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  10  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





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