Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270920
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER WARM LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS NARROW HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING TO GENERATE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES. SEEING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
GOOD INSOLATION. BUMPED MOS GUID MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS AS MACHINE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL WITH THIS PATTERN.
WINDS RETURN TO W/SW LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THAT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
JAMES

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMISES A LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE AMPLIFIED THEME OF LATE WILL
REMAIN LARGELY UNDISTURBED. STOUT UPPER RIDGE NOW TRAVERSING THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL COLLAPSE BY 12Z WED AS A TROUGH TRACKS
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WED AFTN...SO WITH A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE AND STRONGER WESTERLIES OVERSPREADING OUR DOMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAX TEMPS WERE RAISED CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH
THIS REGIME. MET GUIDANCE IS BATTLING AN OBVIOUS HEAD COLD AS
EVIDENCE BY ITS STREAK OF COOL DAYS LATELY...SO WE/VE GIVEN THE
NOD TO THE TOASTY MAV AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

FOLLOWING FROPA LATE WED AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THU...THE
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SWRN
CONUS. GFS SEEMS TO BE EXHIBITING ITS OLD FAST BIAS WITH THESE
DEEPER WAVES WHEREAS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF APPEARS MORE
CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEUTRAL TILT TO THIS TROUGH BY THU
NIGHT AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OVER WEST TEXAS. IN LIGHT OF
MEAN RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT TOP-DOWN
SATURATION AND LIFT TO FACE MORE RESISTANCE UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS
DEPARTS ON FRI OPENING THE FLOODGATES TO DEEP MOISTURE AND
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS PATTERN OF SUSTAINED SW FLOW
AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY DEEP AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH FITS THE BILL
FOR A REGIONAL PRECIP EVENT...ESP BY FRI NIGHT WHEN ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT
BEFORE THE INEVITABLE DRY SLOTTING ARRIVES LATE SAT MORNING/AFTN.

PRECIP PHASE IS STILL OPEN TO SOME SNOW AT TIMES ON THE CAPROCK...
BUT A LACK OF APPRECIABLE COOL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
OVERWHELMINGLY MILD SW FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT WITH SNOW ACCUMS SERIOUSLY HAMPERED BY MILD 2M TEMPS.
NONETHELESS...INITIAL WET BULBING LATE THU INTO FRI SHOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO SOME SNOW WITH A SLIM SHOT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW BY
LATE SAT AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MOISTURE
DEFICITS BY SAT NIGHT HOWEVER APPEAR MORE SERIOUS FOLLOWING THE
DRY SLOTTING EARLIER THAT DAY...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW SAT NIGHT.

SAT NIGHT...THE TROUGH/LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
PIECES LEAVING A BROAD POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS. GFS STILL WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE SRN END OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS NWRN MEXICO BY SUN BEFORE SCOOTING THIS DEEPER LOW
EAST...THOUGH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN ARE LARGELY AGAINST THIS
WHICH IS HOW WE/LL LEAN FOR NOW. DRY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE OUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE
WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/93


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