Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 160953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
TODAY TO HELP KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT ELEVATED MOISTURE...AROUND 850-750 MB...NORTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FIRST TO OUR
SOUTH...THEN SPREADING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES LIKELY BY 12 UTC. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
POPS JUST BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RESPECTIVE WAVES HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE MOST RECENT NWP.

INITIALLY...A LEAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST. GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE WAA REGIME....FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS...PROSPECTS FOR
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TOO GOOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FURTHER SOUTH MEANING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY SKIRT THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. EVEN SO...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT...COUPLED WITH ADDED FORCING OVER A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT BACKDOORING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO KEEP AT LEAST THE
PROSPECTS OF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WE HAVE DECREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...WHILE BOOSTING THEM
MODESTLY IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EVEN ADVECT IN TO BRING THE RISK OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.

LASTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONALLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
NWP HAVE ADVERTISED A POTENT CLOSED LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE REGION...THOUGH TODAY THE GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WOULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WITH COORDINATION OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL SHOWER
MENTION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE POPS MAY NEED SHIFTED EARLIER OR REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NO BIG SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY ON THE
HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  28  55  31  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         50  30  52  34  51 /   0  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     50  32  52  34  53 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     51  32  58  33  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  35  56  35  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  34  60  35  59 /   0  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    51  35  58  35  58 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     50  33  49  36  52 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          51  35  53  38  57 /   0  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  37  54  39  60 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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