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000
FXUS64 KLUB 151956
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Model guidance has struggled with surface features in wake of
this mornings convection. NWP mostly had S-SW surface flow 10-15
knots progged this morning while we`re actually seeing S-SE flow
at 15-20 knots. As cloud cover decreases west to east with the
exiting convective system to the east, we`re seeing CAPE values
build across our western counties near the state line up between
2k/3k J/Kg. This should be enough to overcome weak capping aloft
along the state line, with convection already beginning to initiate
in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico as shortwave energy
ejects northeastward from the base of the upper level trough axis
entering southern New Mexico as of 3pm CDT.

Most of the blended guidance had lowered POPS across our area for
the remainder of this afternoon and overnight. As a result of the
stronger SE surface flow and increasing instability to our west
we decided to keep higher POPS in place from previous forecast as
we go through the remainder of today and the overnight. The NAM
seems to have the best handle on convection moving out of New
Mexico into our western counties this evening with continued
initiation further east through the South Plains and northern
Rolling Plains through the late evening hours which the GFS and
ECMWF pick up on eventually after midnight.

Once the trough axis lifts out of southern New Mexico into the
Central Plains through the course of the day tomorrow, we`ll see
high pressure, currently across the southern Gulf States attempt
to inch westward. Continuous shortwave energy will work to
suppress height rises with slight chance to chance POPS confined
mostly to the Rolling Plains tomorrow then returning across much
of the area for late Thursday into Friday. Saturday and Sunday
look mostly dry as heights rise aloft while a Pacific trough dives
south along the California coast. Dewpoints will remain elevated
helping to keep highs right around normal despite the lack of
precip chances Saturday and Sunday. Longwave pattern change
doesn`t appear to change much in the longterm keeping temperatures
at or slightly below normal into next week while continuing to
hint at typical convection moving off the higher terrain of
eastern New mexico across the state line into our area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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