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000
FXUS64 KLUB 142321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECLINE BELOW 12
KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE
WEST WILL COMMENCE THE INCREASE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A PREVAILING MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED VERSUS A PROB30 FOR KLBB. A COLD FRONT WILL VEER WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH INITIAL SPEEDS
OF 12-13 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD TO MVFR PARTICULARLY AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO WEST
TEXAS. CONSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE OMEGA PROFILES INCREASE AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OCCURS. SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK QUESTIONABLE IN
TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS...BUT WILL ELECT TO KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AS STRONG LIFT CORRESPONDS WITH GOOD TOP
DOWN MOISTENING OWING TO AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT OF NEW MEXICO.

THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH FURTHER ENCROACHING UPON
THE REGION AND COMBINING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...EVIDENCED BY
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. FURTHER AIDING IN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
MAY ACT TO PHASE WITH A PORTION OF THE INITIAL UPPER
WAVE...PROVIDING FOR PROLONGED HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY WAY OF
DIURNAL HEATING AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH TO
UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SOUTH

LONG TERM...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS
AND BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE CWA SAT
EVENING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 OR 11 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH RENEWED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH OR SOUTH EAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE AMOUNT AND
WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION-MARK...SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE ZONE OF
FRONTAL LIFT. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE GENERATES SOME QPF ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT VARIES GREATLY IN
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT. WHILE WE`VE HAVE BOUGHT INTO THE IDEA OF
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LESS BULLISH
GUIDANCE...SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVERALL. WE HAVE
RETAINED A MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
WIND...BOTH THE GRADIENT WIND WITH THE FRONT AND ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS. IN FACT...THERE
MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HABOOB IF WE DO SEE ENOUGH
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THAT INDIVIDUAL CELL
DOWNDRAFTS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR FEATURE. ASIDE FOR THE
OUTFLOW ENHANCEMENT...THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IS HAS QUITE
THE MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE RISES ACCOMPANYING IT AS THE PREVIOUS
ONE...THUS WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HIGH
WINDS...ALTHOUGH WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. A STRONG MID-LVL SPEED MAX WILL
ALSO BE MOVING OVERHEAD...AND ALTHOUGH WE WON/T MIX DEEPLY...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WE/LL SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...PERHAPS
AGAIN REQUIRING A WIND ADVISORY AND GENERATING SOME BLOWING DUST
AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND SW BREEZES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD COME
THROUGH DRY AND COOL US BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY. DEEP
SW FLOW RETURNS THU INTO FRI AND THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FRI/SAT
TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF OFFERS RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW SO WE/LL
HAVE TO SEE WHICH ONE PANS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  66  30  53  31 /  20  20  50  10   0
TULIA         38  68  34  53  30 /  20  20  50  10   0
PLAINVIEW     39  68  36  54  29 /  20  20  50  10   0
LEVELLAND     40  69  36  55  30 /  20  10  40  10   0
LUBBOCK       42  69  39  55  30 /  20  10  40  10   0
DENVER CITY   42  70  36  57  32 /  20  10  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    42  69  38  56  32 /  20  10  30  10   0
CHILDRESS     43  68  40  56  32 /  20  30  50  10   0
SPUR          43  70  42  56  31 /  20  20  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     46  71  42  58  31 /  10  30  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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