203
FXUS64 KLUB 291719
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

 - Warm today with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
   across the region this afternoon and evening.

 - More numerous showers and storms are expected through most of
   Monday and Tuesday with locally heavy rain possible.

 - Relatively cool temperatures are expected this week with daily
   thunderstorm chances continuing throughout the entire week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

An upper level high remains stagnant over the Gulf Coast states
while an amplifying trough tracks east over northern portions of
the CONUS and should reach the Great Lakes region by the end of
the day. Ample mid to upper level moisture continues as the
monsoonal moisture plume remains stagnant over much of West Texas.
Southerly surface flow will prevail through the day with somewhat
breezy winds expected through the afternoon but should weaken
just before sunset and remain light overnight. The predominantly
southerly flow will keep dewpoints mainly in the 60s across the
region. Hot temperatures continue today with highs in the lower
90s on the Caprock and upper 90s off the Caprock. With sufficient
mid to upper level moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to return this afternoon and evening over much of the
region once convective temperatures are reached. With little
instability and low-level forcing, any storms that do develop will
be sub-severe except for isolated strong gusts and heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

A progressive upper level trough axis over the Great Lakes region
will continue to shift eastward on Monday with a weakening upper
level ridge still progged to be positioned over the south-central
CONUS. Convection will likely still be ongoing to some degree on
Monday morning, with scattered showers and storms set to continue
through much of the day supported by continued rich mid/upper level
moisture and a gradually deepening surface trough axis positioned
directly over the South Plains region. Thunderstorm activity is then
expected to become even more widespread Monday evening through early
Tuesday morning as upper level forcing becomes a bit better
pronounced as an inverted trough axis deepens over the Trans-Pecos
region. Heavy rain and localized flooding looks possible Monday
night through early Tuesday given expected slow storm motion and
potential for training cells, as well as PWATs near 1.5". A second
round of scattered to numerous showers and storms then looks likely
on Tuesday afternoon and evening given little change in the moist
airmass and the continued presence of the weak inverted troughing
aloft.

During the mid to late week period, models remain in good agreement
that a broad upper ridge will be centered over SE TX resulting in
another period of unsettled moist southerly to southwesterly flow
aloft over our area, with moisture availability possibly enhanced
by a tropical system off the coast of the Baja peninsula. Ensemble
consensus supports maintaining daily chances for showers and storms
over most of the forecast area from Wednesday through Friday as a
result. In addition to the continued precipitation chances,
temperatures are expected to remain below normal area-wide through
the majority of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Will run with a clean, VFR set of TAFs, but there should be some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area
later this afternoon and evening to overnight. The best chance
will come from storms moving off the High Plains of eastern New
Mexico with those possibly reaching KPVW/KLBB after 03Z.
Confidence of that remains fairly low at this point and will keep
mention out of the TAFs this period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07