Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 021649
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TX/NM STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT...
SHOWERS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AT THIS POINT WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH
SLIM CHANCE FOR RE-ENERGIZING OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY
WHILE EDGING INTO EASTERN ZONES LATER TODAY. WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION
THOUGH SOLUTIONS MIXED ABOUT ABILITY TO DEVELOP NEW WEAK THUNDER
ACTIVITY THIS AREA LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...WE RESTORED THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AREA FOR LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE TODAY
SHOULD FOLLOW CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS IN MOST ASPECTS AS SUMMER
KICKS IN ANOTHER NOTCH. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL FLEX ITS MUSCLES OVER THE CENTRAL US THIS WEEK
AS A TROUGH DIGS AND STRENGTHENS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
FORM A PSEUDO OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH WILL GENERALLY
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER
THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER ON
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK SHOWING NEAR OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE MODEL DRYING OUT SOIL MOISTURE
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE RECORD RAINS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST MONTH.
SUPERBLEND AND ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER WHICH LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKELY. A FEW FRONTS WILL
MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME AT ENTERING THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVERHEAD.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DECREASE ITS AMPLITUDE ALLOWING
THE CUT OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO EJECT OUT EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO WEST TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FURTHERMORE...THIS WILL ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE AT DRAWING A
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM UP INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  59  94  61 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         88  62  92  63 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  62  91  64 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     90  63  95  64 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  65  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   91  62  96  63 /  20  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  64  96  64 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  66  92  68 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          89  65  91  65 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  67  91  67 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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