Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 230443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY MOVING VERY FAR EASTWARD...REMAINING
DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING THROUGH KLBB AND WILL BRING A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH IT...BUT LITTLE ELSE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A SHOWER LATE TONIGHT AT KLBB...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIM CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KLBB AND/OR KCDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND CHANCES OF A
DIRECT IMPACT ARE LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS /AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURED A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM NEAR CLOVIS NORTHEAST TO A SURFACE LOW AROUND
GUYMON. LL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN TWO SPOTS SO FAR...ONE
NEAR HEREFORD WITH ANOTHER SOUTH OF CLOVIS. TSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PREVALENT NEAR I-40...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR ADDITIONAL TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INITIATING FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SHOULD RAMP UP BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/FILLING LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SPREADS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE TX-NM BORDER ALONG WITH ENHANCED
SWLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
MOVING WITH MORE ZEST THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT NARROW SWATHS OF
HEAVY RAIN REMAIN A LEGITIMATE THREAT NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THE
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR LIES PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF ASCENT. ON A
RELATED NOTE...PRECIP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACE GREAT DIFFICULTY IN
PROPAGATING EAST TOWARD THE I-27 AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS...SO PRECIP
LOOKS TO DWINDLE MARKEDLY AFTER 06Z.

DESPITE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER FLOW DOES
RETAIN A CYCLONIC COMPONENT WHICH WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE DUE TO CONTINUED SHEARING AND SOURCE DISRUPTIONS...
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING LOOK
ON PAR FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTN TSTORMS...THIS
TIME PROBABLY A BIT FARTHER EAST FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE SERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME...ALTHOUGH ALL
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ARE FAIR GAME FOR THESE TSTORMS CONSIDERING THE
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DISPLACED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHINESS IN THE WEST
ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIVE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  IT IS
THE TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO WHICH WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOBES OF ENERGY WILL BE
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY MORE OR LESS MAKING IT ACROSS OUR PART OF THE
WORLD EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LARGELY
BE THE RULE MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE QUITE LIMITED.  THEREAFTER...STORMS LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AT LEAST NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE PERHAPS PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.  HAVE THUS GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY DEMONSTRATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
THOUGH THE SUSPICION IS THAT THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN NWP.
 THEREAFTER...THE DETAILS OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOME TOO
NEBULOUS TO GIVE MUCH OF AN IMPROVEMENT THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LATE
SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF MONSOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  62  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  20
TULIA         69  94  66  93  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  94  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  94  65  93  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  94  65  94  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  96  67  98  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  98  71 100  71 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




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