Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 102339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
CENTER JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON 500 HPA HEIGHT
ANALYSIS.  WINDS ALOFT WERE SHOWN TO BE FAIRLY WEAK BUT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TENDENCY FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SO RIDGE MAY BE CENTERED A BIT
FURTHER WEST THAN THIS MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS HELPING TO HOLD DEWPOINTS UP A BIT
MORE THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK FOR UPPER 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.  SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR-WEATHER CU FIELD
DEVELOP SOON ACROSS THE REGION BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS THAT WE
WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS PRECIP AT
BAY.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS
DAYS HAVE SEEN.  LOWS WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE SOUTH
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER HAS BEGUN LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BY SATURDAY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING RIDGE WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OUT AHEAD OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ITS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONGTERM CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS RUN TO RUN...DUE TO DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 50`S THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG BUT STILL HOT...IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S..HIGHS WILL
DROP TO THE LOW 80S TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  63  90  64 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         64  92  66  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  91  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  92  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   63  90  64  90  65 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  90  66  91  66 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     71  97  72  98  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  94  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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