Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 290853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CLUSTER OF STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER JET
NUDGES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF EASTERN CONUS CYCLONIC
FLOW AND EASTERN FRINGES OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WIND SHIFT PROPAGATES INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS NORTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS. BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR STORMS INITIALLY BY MID THIS
AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
CAPROCK CANYONS STATE PARK TO ABOUT MORTON...NEARER A SURFACE TROUGH
AND IN THE VICINITY OF BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD ALSO
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A H25 JET
AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE ALOFT. CAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG...OWING
TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD ENTERTAIN A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO THE THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS...WHILE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AN ERODING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO PROMOTE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT
GIVEN BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

STEERING FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...ADVECTING THE REMAINS OF ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT MAY FORM TO THE SOUTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY ALSO HELP TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO MAINTAIN STORMS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO
PERSIST...THOUGH WITH SOME EVOLUTION AND CHANGE IN AREAL EXTENT...
THROUGH 240 HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF COURSE IS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE INTERACTION WITH THE
JET WHICH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
A BIT OF A GYRATION OCCURS WITH THE HIGH THUS VEERING THE FLOW TO A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AND THENCE NORTHEASTERLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A BIT OF A MORPHING OF THE HIGH...THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY SEES A BACKING OF THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION WHICH PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.  A
VEERING TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR SAT/SUN
WITH THE RIDGE CENTER APPROACHING OUR AREA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME POPS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY TO OUR SE.  AS NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD LIGHT UP ACROSS
THE RATON MESA AND MAKE THEIR WAY SE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  TSTMS
MAY WELL OCCUR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS DRY OFF
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  62  89  66 /  30  20   0   0
TULIA         92  64  90  68 /  30  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  64  90  67 /  30  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     92  65  90  67 /  30  30   0   0
LUBBOCK       93  67  91  69 /  30  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  64  90  65 /  20  30   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  65  91  67 /  20  30   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  69  96  73 /  20  30   0   0
SPUR          94  66  92  69 /  20  30   0   0
ASPERMONT     96  69  96  72 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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