Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 231749
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1249 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Last band of rain will move through KLBB over the next hour or so,
with clearing skies after that. We can`t completely rule out a
brief dip to MVFR levels at KLBB, but VFR should be the primary
mode. The rain has shifted south of KPVW and KCDS and clouds will
gradually clear at these sites through the afternoon...aside from
some fair weather cumulus. VFR will be the rule this afternoon and
tonight. Breezy northerly winds at times this afternoon will
become light this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Have again updated to increase PoPs along and ahead of this final
band of rain showers moving through the South and Rolling Plains
and remove PoPs across the far northern zones. The rain will
linger a little longer than earlier anticipated and have extended
PoPs through mid-afternoon over all but the southern Texas
Panhandle and northwest South Plains. However, will likely have to
update as things clear out and rain comes to end north of this
final rain band. Temperatures will recover this afternoon as
sunshine gradually returns, though whether we can make it to
forecast highs is yet to be determined.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1047 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor update to boost PoPs over much of the area through 18Z.
Mid-morning radar shows scattered light rain showers over most of
the CWA. This activity is associated with the a round of lift
from a shortwave trough sinking out of the southern Rockies and
across the southern High Plains. Given fleeting elevated
instability expect little to no additional thunder so have removed
the thunder wording from the grids. The showers may hang on over
the Caprock through 18-19Z, and a couple of hours after that over
the Rolling Plains before coming to an end altogether. Skies will
gradually clear this afternoon with temperatures recovering into
the 60s, maybe low 70s in a few locations. Breezy northerly winds
will continue through the afternoon before diminishing in the
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

AVIATION...
TS and IFR/MVFR concerns have abated. Gusty north winds through at
least early afternoon will diminish by evening. VFR likely through
the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level low dominating much of the CONUS weather pattern has
moved only slightly southward into central MN this morning. Cyclonic
flow was driving a cold front southward through the Rockies and
Central Plains, and this feature was just entering the northern TX
Panhandle as of this writing. Convection was firing along the
frontal boundary with light shower activity behind the front as
well. Moving out of the forecast area was an area of showers and
thunderstorms that had formed along a shortwave this afternoon.
While much of the forecast area stayed dry, Aspermont was a big
winner with approximately 1.5" of rain.

The cold front will be moving through the forecast area this
morning, bringing yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms to
those who missed out yesterday. Short-range models are indicating
coverage will be better than yesterday, but as dry air works in
behind the front later today, the tap will quickly turn off for
several days. Enjoy the cool, somewhat damp day, because as the edge
of a ridge starts to build in tomorrow, temperatures will rise
quickly. By Thursday, WSW flow at the surface and aloft will usher
in a large amount of hot dry air, causing temperatures to soar to
the upper 90s for all but the southwestern TX Panhandle, which won`t
be too far behind. A few triple degree highs will most likely be
seen Thursday as well as Friday. A new Canadian low will attempt
to push a cold front through on Saturday, but models are in great
disagreement on the strength of this initial push, so have opted
to stay with the warmer highs for Saturday. Better agreement lies
in the cooler air making it through on Sunday, though that only
brings us back to seasonal norms thanks to the extreme heat of the
previous days. The position of the low for the weekend will be
approximately the same as the one currently creating our weather,
however, this time, rain chances from this system are looking a
bit suspect. Copious amounts of dry air will have been advected
into the region Thursday through Saturday, leaving little recovery
time for moisture return. It is possible as moisture returns
early next week and the low pushes into the Great Lakes region, we
could see precipitation chances increase aided by northwest flow
aloft. This is quite far out, so we`ll have to see if the models
keep any continuity with this feature.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23/05/23



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