Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 052056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

The upper level low that brought rain to the area to start the
weekend is on the move this afternoon, crossing the Rio Grande
around Del Rio/Eagle Pass and will track toward East Texas this
evening. In addition, an upper low will dig southeastward over the
Dakotas. The combination of these two features will send the initial
wave of cold air through the forecast area during the overnight
hours. Cold advection Tuesday in combination with a fair amount of
high cloud will hold temperatures down with highs in the 40s,
favoring a couple of degrees below MOS. Chances for any light rain
or sprinkles is looking less and less likely as models are just not
showing any mid level moisture across the area.

A strong cold front is still slated to push through the region
Wednesday. While the timing of the front is still in question, the
NAM is the fastest with the front by having it south of the FA by
21Z. Given how these fronts usually push through faster than what
guidance shows the forecast will reflect a quicker fropa. The timing
of the front will determine the high temp for Wednesday. It is
possible that the temperature observed in the late morning could
very well be the high for the day. Lows Thursday morning will be the
coldest so far this winter with current lows forecasted to range
from 8-24 degrees with the coldest temps occurring across our
northwestern zones. Wind chill will also be a factor overnight
Wednesday into the early morning hours Thursday as post frontal
winds will be 20-25 mph.

Models have trended highs warmer Thursday which seems to be on the
right path compared to what models were forecasting the past several
days. While near freezing temps will be possible for highs, solar
insolation as a result from clear skies should help keep daytime
temps from dropping below freezing. Winds should turn back to the
south/southwest by Friday allowing a gradual warmup with highs
reaching back into the low 60s by the weekend. Another cold front is
progged for late Sunday but will only cool temps slightly as mostly
zonal flow will be dominate aloft which will not allow another dump
of arctic air.





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