Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
257 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016

Low clouds took a while to burn off across the far northern Rolling
Plains but did so by late morning resulting in sunny skies across
the region.  A light and variable is gradually swinging to the south
but wind speeds remain under 10 mph for most of the area.  This
combined with the sunny skies has helped temperatures to climb into
the low 80s across the region.  Aloft, high cloud cover is
increasing to the west of the forecast area and this is associated
with a weak shortwave that will continue to move towards the area
through tonight.  Weak shortwave ridging aloft will gradually give
way to weak zonal to southwesterly flow which will help to deepen
the lee surface trough.  This will slowly increase wind speeds
overnight at the surface and also allow a decent low-level jet to
develop across the region.  Increasing boundary layer moisture and
weak lift with the low-level jet may result in low clouds that could
spread across most of the South Plains and all of the Rolling
Plains.  Did increase cloud cover in the morning across the Rolling
Plains but kept the highest values east of the Caprock for now.

The shortwave will continue to move over the area during the day
Tuesday while gradually weakening.  Passage of the shortwave should
help to clear skies out from west to east as surface winds veer to
the south to southwest through the day and as mid-level moisture is
pushed east of the area.  Biggest uncertainty is what impact cloud
cover in the morning will have on high temperatures.  The longer
clouds can hold in across the forecast area, the lower highs could
potentially be.  Most guidance and model data are a few degrees
cooler than today, but not by much so the stretch of above normal
temperatures looks to continue.


A very lackluster pattern remains in store Tue night through the
weekend as upper ridging re-exerts itself complete with anomalously
high 500 mb heights for late October. Tue night begins with a minor
trough grazing the southern Panhandle before diving SE ahead of an
expansive upper ridge. The SE component to the trough will help
deliver a decaying cold front to most of the area by Wed, but
aside from a northerly wind shift there are few sensible weather
changes evident. Weak surface ridging then departs on Thu ahead of
southerly flow and stout 500 mb height rises of 30 meters or more
by Fri. With the center of the upper high poised to our south Fri-Sun,
we see no reason not to aim higher with max temps compared to the
semi-cool MEX numbers. We saw much success with this strategy for
the past two weekends under similar ridging when extended guidance
was obviously too cool, so we see little reason why this scenario
would fail this time around. The only fly in the ointment could
involve a minor front creeping south from CO and KS by Sat, but
this is unlikely to interfere with the unseasonably warm dome of
air still entrenched south of I-40 during that time.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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