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000
FXUS64 KLUB 231734
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.AVIATION...
Brief bout of MVFR cigs that flirted with KLBB around 15Z has
since scattered and lifted leaving VFR conditions for all TAF
sites this afternoon and evening. Continued southerly flow,
including another 30-40 kt LLJ tonight, may carry in enough
moisture to bring a risk of MVFR cigs Saturday morning, though
confidence in this is a little too low for explicit mention in the
TAFs ATTM. Any isolated convection this afternoon into early this
evening will likely stay east and west of the terminals. However,
isolated to widely scattered convection may approach the terminals
from the west early Saturday, though limited coverage preclude any
mention in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level low currently centered over the dessert southwest will
lift north through the day today while vort max centered at the base
of the trough moves through the Four-Corners region into the Front
Range. Moisture will steadily increase through the short term.
Lowered Fridays highs slightly from previous forecast but will still
mostly mid-80s up on the Caprock to low 90s off the Caprock in the
Rolling Plains.

Surface winds will become breezy out of the south ahead of the
sharpening trough that drops into northern New Mexico Friday
afternoon with increasing cloudiness later in the afternoon and
early evening. Deepest surface moisture will remain to the east
during daylight hours but if its able to advect farther north and
west we could see and isolated shower/thunderstorm across our
counties in the southern Texas Panhandle where best instability in
our CWA is located. By early evening we`ll see a LLJ between 30-
40kts spread across West Texas along with weak mid level
baroclinicity and steep midlevel lapse rates develop amid
deteriorating inhibition aloft. We`ll see more widespread showers
and tstorms develop after midnight across the Rolling Plains and
slowly spread westward into the South Plains as stronger upper level
forcing approaches from the north. Some of these storms may become
strong but will likely remain sub-severe with wind gusts up to 40kts
being primary threat and some small hail. Given increased moisture
and rainfall potential, overnight lows into Saturday morning will
remain in the 60s across the CWA.

LONG TERM...
Some interesting evolutionary changes in this morning`s data with
regard to the low across the Great Basin.  The main circulation is
expected to lift rapidly northward into eastern MT as ridging
maintains a stronghold across the Mississippi Valley.  however, what
was simply just a sharpened trough in yesterday`s data has trended
toward the energy on the back side of the system initiating
cyclogenesis across srn NM/AZ by Sunday morning and continuing SW
into either WRN Sonora or into Baja California.  All the while, a
tropical system is progged to develop near 17N117W and be swept
NEWRD toward us slinging a slug of moisture up our way.  Granted,
there is a lot that has to align for this to work out but the
general story is consistent between the ECM and GFS.  The MT low
will slowly drift toward the Great Lakes by Tuesday.  What happens
thereafter becomes very unclear as either the ridge will build into
W TX or we`ll be dealing with deformation between the MX low and the
a ridge to our along the Missouri Valley SE of the Great Lakes
system.

In terms of sensible weather, we may have some showers around
Saturday morning which typically would diminish toward mid day
before re-activating convection in the afternoon.  Rain chances
favor the Rolling Plains Saturday afternoon east of the dryline
(which exhibits a wide spatial spread among the models.) Forecast
soundings do hint at instability supportive of strong to severe
storms though shear profiles are a bit of a mixed bag with a
weakness around 10kft.  Rain chances look to spread westward into
Saturday night ahead of a fast moving cold front (and quite windy)
which is expected Sunday morning. Sufficient instability looks to
exist in the post- frontal airmass to keep storms going during the
day Sunday mainly south with a rather sharp decreasing gradient
toward the NW. As such, the SWRN Panhandle may largely end up
being dry on Sunday. Probably most notably will be noticably
cooler temperatures for Sunday. Another surge of cooler/drier air
then makes its way into the area late Sunday/early Monday. Things
should dry out into Monday or Tuesday, depending on how the
synoptic scale influences pan out, with cooler temperatures into
the upcoming work week.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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