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000
FXUS64 KLUB 082341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RH VALUES. GIVEN THE SETUP EXPECTED...KLBB
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATER BR THREAT TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING THOUGH THERE EXISTS SOME RISK UP AT KCDS AS WELL FOR A FEW
HOURS. AT THIS POINT A FOG CONFIDENCE IS RUNNING AROUND 20 PCT.
INTO MONDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL IMPINGE UPON THE AREA
AND LIKELY HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...
FREEZING FOG MAY BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN FOR MONDAY MORNING BUT
CHANCES ARE LOWER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. A
RESURGENCE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OCCUR BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE INTERESTING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ON MONDAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WEST TEXAS UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET. MODELS ARE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...ISENTROPIC LIFT
AROUND THE 280-290K LAYER WILL INCREASE BY MONDAY MORNING FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE
ALL SNOW WITH A FULLY SATURATED SOUNDING. A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH LIFT DEPICTED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.

LONG TERM...
SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE BEST
LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION AND AS THE ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO DRY
OUT. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING
PLAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...FLOW ALOFT WILL DE-AMPLIFY SOME
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK TROFS MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED
IN THE MOS TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DROP WITH EACH RUN.
ORIGINALLY READINGS WERE IN THE 50S FOR WED/THUR BUT THEY HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NOW AND LOWERED TEMPS IN THE GRIDS
WITH THIS IN MIND.

MORE INTERESTING PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
POTENTIALLY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE MODELS AND LIFTS
OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES OF
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION GENERATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS
ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE TROF
PASSES SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. MODELS ARE JUST
NOW COMING AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES WITH TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  24   9  38  16 /   0  30  10   0   0
TULIA         17  24  10  38  19 /   0  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     17  25  12  38  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     18  26  14  39  21 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       18  26  14  39  22 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   20  27  21  41  23 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    19  26  17  40  22 /   0  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     17  26  17  37  20 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          19  26  17  40  23 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     20  27  19  42  22 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26