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000
FXUS64 KLUB 041747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE FOR WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
WITH ASSOCIATED ICING ALOFT. EXPECTATION IS THAT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH NEAR-CONTINUOUS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. KCDS HAS MOSTLY REPORTED SNOW AND A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS ONGOING AT KPVW. WOULD EXPECT SNOW
TRANSITION AT KLBB AT OR BEFORE 20Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLOWLY AFTER 06Z WITH RAPID CLEARING AFTER 06Z.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 / 100  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 / 100  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 / 100  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 / 100  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 / 100  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 / 100  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 / 100  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 / 100  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  90  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26