Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 282333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS HELPED DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WAS NEARING THE NM/TX LINE WEST OF
KLBB. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TSRA BACK TO
THE WEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH MAY AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW LATER
THIS EVENING...CONFIDENCE ATTM IS LOW AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT
OUT OF THE TAFS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WET SOILS.
WILL GO MVFR ATTM BUT POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER RESTRICTIONS EXISTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
DUE TO ONGOING ACTIVE WX...NO CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY
TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT ROUND OF
STORMS AND FLOODING...A REPEAT OF SEVERE WX APPEARS LIKELY FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. UPSCALE
GROWTH TO MCS STATUS IS A SHARED NWP THEME ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
BY FRI EVENING WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS ISSUED THIS EVENING
OR TONIGHT. 93

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF T-STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND MAY TRAIN
ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.
THIS HEIGHTENS THE CONCERN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLOODING
THREAT GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT..AS WELL AS ENHANCING A
TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT GETTING WORKED OVER
WITH THE CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

OLD DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LATE MAY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUMP
UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SYSTEM THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WELL DEFINED
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 250 MB OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO APPEARS
HEADED EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND WILL INITIATE DEEP LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES AT SOME POINT BY LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS QUITE AT ODDS HOW SCENARIO FOR
TODAY WILL UNFOLD WITH A HIGHLY COMPLEX SCENARIO AT 00 HOURS AS
THE LATEST EVOLVING MCS SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. ALREADY HAVE
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE CAPROCK...AND SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW TO STEER IN FROM THE EAST LATER
IN THE MORNING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE CAPES LATER TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ JOULES PER
KILOGRAM...WITH AT LEAST MODEST SHEAR WHILE STEERING FLOW HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. UNKNOWNS INCLUDE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY
MCS OUTFLOWS...POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
WESTERN ZONES THAT COULD MODIFY AFTERNOON PROFILES... AND LIKELY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY PROBABLY WITH MORE CLOUDS. DUE TO
THE LIST OF UNKNOWNS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND FOLLOW SHORT RANGE MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

IN SPITE OF DAYTIME CONFIDENCE ISSUES...MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT AREA WILL SPAWN ANOTHER LARGE MCS OR TWO BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDER CHANCES AS POTENTIAL COMPLEX
EDGES EAST. IN ADDITION TO HIGHER CHANCES WE HAVE ADDED MORE
EXPLICIT SEVERE IMPACTS TO WEATHER GRIDS MATCHING DAY ONE CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. COULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY BIG DAY FOR WEATHER THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONE MORE ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS PRIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A QUIETER PATTERN TAKES
SHAPE COMPLETE WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
SPELL A DRY FRIDAY MORNING AND AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THAT LOOKS TO CHANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD
OF AN ENCROACHING UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF COLORADO ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HELPING TO SUPPLY A DEEP LAYER OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS A THETA-E RIDGE SITS IN
PLACE EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. PWATS IN THE 1.5-2" RANGE COMBINED WITH
CAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
PERTURBATION TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE THESE FACTORS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY...STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY SLOW...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG THUS HOPEFULLY NOT
PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAINING OR STATIONARY RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SOME TIME SATURDAY MORNING...COOL
SURFACE RIDGING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL SEE DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGING AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
ATTEMPT TO ADVECT A FEW STORMS...ORIGINATING IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME...IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...SAID SUBSIDENCE AND
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS THREAT LOW WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS VERY LOW. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW GIVEN THIS AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES LEADING TO DECREASING LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY. NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL ATTEMPT TO BACK UPPER FLOW INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...SO
WILL MONITOR TRENDS MOVING FORWARD REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90 BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGING/BUILDING HEIGHTS IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  82  52  69 /  40  10  70  30
TULIA         57  81  56  70 /  60  20  70  30
PLAINVIEW     60  82  58  70 /  60  20  70  30
LEVELLAND     59  83  57  71 /  50  10  60  30
LUBBOCK       60  83  59  70 /  60  10  70  30
DENVER CITY   60  87  58  75 /  50  10  50  40
BROWNFIELD    59  85  58  74 /  50  10  50  40
CHILDRESS     61  83  60  74 /  70  30  80  30
SPUR          60  83  59  75 /  60  20  70  40
ASPERMONT     63  85  61  77 /  70  30  70  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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