National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLUB 030025 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS THIS EVENING AND ISSUE A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
ZONES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY WEATHER EARLIER PASSES
OVER...THEN EAST. THESE SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND/OR SNOW...BUT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE WEATHER GRIDS NOW REFLECT A CHANCE
OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES...ROUGHLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LUBBOCK...THROUGH 03Z...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S CURRENTLY...WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST SPOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WIND
CHILLS IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE EXPECT
SIMILAR WIND CHILL VALUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
AFTER 06Z MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...AND AT LEAST LIGHT
BREEZES...WE HAVE DECIDED TO RUN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH
12Z. FURTHER SOUTH...FROM LEVELLAND TO LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE
SOUTHWARD...WIND CHILLS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA /-5
DEGREES OR LOWER AND WINDS AOA 10 MPH/...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MORE
INTERMITTENT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 06 UTC...THEN MAY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW AT KCDS
BETWEEN 00 AND 01 UTC. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVERNIGHT
AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA WIDE. REMNANT BAND OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP PUSHING THROUGH OUR EASTERN COUNTIES HAS NOT
AMOUNTED TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE IMPACTS PER EARLIER CALLS
TO THESE AREAS.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN CONVEYOR OF ASCENT
EASING ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THIS
DRYING WILL HINDER THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED VORT MAX FROM CREATING MUCH
IN THE WAY ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP...BUT AS THIS IMPULSE EXITS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE 00Z WE DO EXPECT IT TO SPARK SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT LINGERING
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS FAVOR A SHORT WINDOW OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH THUNDER IN THIS SETUP...BUT WE EXPECT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS TO BE TOO SPARSE IN TIME AND DURATION FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WX HEADLINES.

WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SWRN TX
PANHANDLE...TONIGHT IS SHAPING UP BITTERLY COLD ESPECIALLY IN THOSE
AREAS SUCH AS MULESHOE WHERE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW OCCURRED.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD PRACTICALLY GUARANTEE THIS
SCENARIO...BUT BEFORE WINDS TREND LIGHT WE/LL LIKELY SEE OCCASIONAL
WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -10. FOR NOW WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT IN
THE SPS...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT MAY OPT TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IF THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE ROBUST. SURFACE RIDGING DOES
MAKE SOME PROGRESS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW...BUT WITH E-SELY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE WE REMAIN RELUCTANT TO RAISE TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AT
ALL.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING ON A
COMMON SOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A WEAK...DRY TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.  WHILE
THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPRESS THICKNESSES A BIT...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT TOLERABLE AFTER THIS
RECENT COLD OUTBREAK.  THIS WARMUP WILL BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY POTENT UPPER WAVE DIGGING SE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THIS AIRMASS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AN UNIMPEDED ARCTIC SOURCE...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD WEDNESDAY ALBEIT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREEZY
NORTH WINDS.  IN ADDITION...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES INDICATE A FLEETING BUT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BURST
OF OMEGA AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE SOMEWHAT SCARCE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TOP
DOWN MOISTENING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

AS THIS WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD...COUPLED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
QUICKLY THURSDAY...PERHAPS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.  ON FRIDAY...MODEL
AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE PRODUCT OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH...WHICH TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN HANDLED
POORLY BY BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE ROUGHLY DUE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...THEN ATTEMPT TO DETACH FROM THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AND LINGER AS A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  DEPENDING ON ITS EXACT EVOLUTION...WHICH IS VERY MUCH
IN QUESTION AT THE MOMENT...THIS COULD INTRODUCE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        -1  37  27  62  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA          0  31  21  60  32 /  20   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW      2  32  23  62  35 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND      4  36  27  64  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK        7  34  25  62  36 /  20   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   13  39  27  63  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    10  36  26  63  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS      3  29  19  52  31 /  30   0   0   0  10
SPUR           8  30  21  59  37 /  10   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT      9  30  20  58  37 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>032.

&&

$$

33/23