Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270442
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...
A batch of weakening showers and thunderstorms traversing the
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains could
flirt with KPVW to kick off the TAF cycle. Given the weakening
trend, confidence in a bonafide storm impact at KPVW is
relatively low, but did include a VCTS remark for the first couple
of hours. A few of these showers could potentially make it as far
east of KCDS several hours later, but the more likely outcome is
only some debris clouds, while all late night convection should
remain well north of KLBB. Outside of any storm influences, light
winds and VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Additional
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday,
though uncertainty in coverage and location preclude explicit
mention in the TAFs ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 900 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

UPDATE...
PoP/Wx grids have been updated to better reflect evolving radar
trends. In particular, PoPs were greatly increased across the
northwest zones through late evening where the tail end of a
broken line of convection was edging across. Brief heavy rain and
gusty winds will be common with this activity, though a couple of
pockets of small hail may also be possible. A general decreasing
trend is expected later tonight, though just enough upper support
along with a minor uptick in a southerly LLJ could keep a little
convection going late into the night across the northern zones.
Thus, we have expanded the low thunder mention across most of the
southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains after midnight.
Further south and east relatively quiet weather should persist
through the night. Minor adjustments were also made to the near-
term temperature, dewpoint, and wind grids in accord with recent
observations and trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper trough axis from 300-250 mb extended from the eastern TX
Panhandle southwest to the Davis Mountains. Mid-level moisture has
remained more resilient ahead of this trough, mainly over the
eastern Permian Basin where numerous diurnal storms are noted. This
convection will continue to make strides into our far southeast
zones this afternoon, however there is an obvious instability
void/lack of Cu evident north of these areas which should greatly
hinder progress of these storms north of Highway 82. Farther west,
subsidence behind the trough should keep convection suppressed to
mostly stable Cu, but have inserted a broad mention of isolated
storms through tonight as water vapor reveals additional lift and re-
moistening upstream within additional cyclonic flow. This flow
should flatten and trend a bit more anticyclonic on Sat, but with
such negligible height rises it appears that lingering moisture and
favorable lapse rates could easily encourage spotty storms. Unlike
recent days, less interference from low to mid clouds should allow
for warmer max temps especially on the Caprock.

LONG TERM...
High across the southeastern US will stay pretty much in-place
during the initial extended though it`s westward reach will vary
and shift westward late next week. A trough will exist, Sunday
morning, from nrn MB into the Desert SW. A weakness in the high
will linger along the middle Texas coast through the weekend. This
will place us under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft
through the weekend. However, by Monday, we`ll see ridging build
into the central CONUS as the the Texas low hangs around south
Texas. The southeastern high will then move westward into the
Southern Plains by mid week and sit there for the remainder of the
extended.

Saturday and Sunday continue to display indications of scattered
showers and thunderstorms with Sunday being a bit more favored at
this point thanks to favorable jet max positioning to our NW.  All
in all, the models continue to be much too wet in terms of
coverage though the general trend toward favoring storms in the
area is on point. Precipitation is indicated across the CWFA just
about every 6 hour period. We will see our winds shift around to
the east which should keep low level moisture plentiful. In
essence, we will see surge after surge of higher theta-e air
advecting into West Texas. Given the weakly forced nature of the
convection and its dependence on day-to-day affects which are
inherently not handled well by guidance, will continue to
advertise low to moderate pops through mid-week with drying
thereafter as the ridge builds in.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

23/33/23



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