Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 112111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51


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