Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
318 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Fairly widespread convection has broken out from the Panhandle
into western Oklahoma extending as far south as Plainview to
Guthrie. It appears these storms are breaking out along an
elevated frontal boundary with some modest upper level support in
the form of a subtle shortwave trough. This forcing should shift
eastward through the morning with the Rolling Plains favored for
some lingering precipitation past 12Z. Any subsidence on the
backside of the trough will likely keep the forecast area fairly
quiet through the remainder of the day. However, the moist
atmosphere, cool mid level temperatures, and potential for
additional upper support continue to point to additional rain
chances through Monday with Sunday night still looking like the
best potential after this morning`s round. Persistent low level
cold advection today and abundant cloud cover will limit upward
potential to temperatures, although am nervous going too cool as
any break in cloud cover this time of year will allow temps to
increase pretty quickly. Will favor the warmer MAV numbers, but
the much cooler MET has potential if low clouds hold firm all day.

The pattern begins to change Tuesday as upper level high pressure
to our west begins to bulge eastward. This should return the area
to hot and dry condtions for a couple of days at least until
another cold front enters the picture late next week.




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