Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 222335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Great evening for flying with light southerly winds and only some
passing high clouds. VFR will persist through the TAF cycle though
a weak cold front with a northerly to northeasterly wind shift
will move through the terminals between 14-17Z Monday. The post-
frontal winds may edge up to breezy levels.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Dry northwest flow will be the theme for the majority of this
work week in response to persistent longwave ridging slowly
amplifying along the Pacific coast. Not until Friday do we foresee
any potential for precip-laden clouds following a strong cold
front on Thursday. Until then, the pleasant surface high of today
will be replaced by another surface ridge on Monday afternoon
behind an uneventful cold front. 850mb temps by Tuesday are
progged to cool even lower than today, and a favorably timed
surface high by daybreak may foster another light freeze in our NW
counties - not at all unlike this morning.

Behind Tuesday`s surface high, thicknesses will rebound nicely
with almost no influx of low level moisture on breezy W-SW winds.
This dry airmass should garner large diurnal temp swings of
nearly 40 degrees on Wednesday, with even milder temps on
Thursday in advance of a strong cold front around midday.
Models are in good agreement with this front, but past experience
says such strong fronts tend to arrive sooner than models depict.
As such, opted to trim high temps a bit lower across our northern
two rows of counties. The only real challenge behind this front
is how effective Pacific moisture can linger in the base of a
broad trough in northwest flow. It`s not uncommon to see precip
favor the NM upslope in these post-frontal NW flow regimes, with
an abbreviated extension of precip into the Panhandle along the
elevated frontal layer. Although the timing of this moisture and
lift are still at odds among the global models (GFS is now slower
than the ECMWF), the overall pattern is not one for much in the
way of measurable precipitation. However, thermal profiles
clearly prefer light snow as early as Friday evening in our NW
zones, with a gradual S-SE progression thereafter before deep
subsidence erodes this saturated layer late Friday night/Saturday
morning. Given the colder deterministic model temps Fri-Sat, have
undercut the climo weighted MOS numbers from earlier forecasts.
This may offer a widespread freeze CWA-wide by Saturday morning,
with 20s potentially invading most of the Caprock.




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