Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY
IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB LATER THIS EVENING AND TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH THIS IN MIND. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN /AND MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES/ AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE CONVECTION AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE TERMINALS.
KCDS COULD TOO EXPERIENCE SOME CONVECTION THOUGH THIS IS A LITTLE
LESS CERTAIN...AND WOULD LIKELY BE DELAYED TO LATER THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. IN ADDITION...MVFR /OR LOW/ CIGS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...THOUGH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN COULD LIMIT THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE SETUP AT 3PM CONSISTED OF A DECAYING SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING FROM NEAR SEAGRAVES E-NE TO GUTHRIE. WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN VEERING EASTERLY IN OUR NW COUNTIES IN
RESPONSE TO MORE PROMINENT SURFACE TROUGHING IN EASTERN NM. EARLIER
ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS REMOVED OVER ALL BUT
OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN PRECIP BEFORE 7 PM.
DEWPOINTS HAVE SIMPLY PROVED DRIER OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THAN MODELS INDICATED AND THIS IS PAINFULLY EVIDENT BY THE
LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU THUS FAR. FARTHER NW...UPSLOPE STORMS ARE
ALREADY IN PROGRESS NW OF TUCUMCARI AND PER RECENT MCD THIS ACTIVITY
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS IT
SPREADS SEWD AND ENCOUNTERS A THETA-E AXIS ORIENTED SE-NW DIRECTLY
ACROSS OUR CWA. SUFFICIENT CAPE UP TO 2K J/KG SHOULD BREED SOME
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...BUT THE COMMON NWP THEME IS FOR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS TO SOLIDIFY INTO AN MCS OVER TIME. WE WOULD EXPECT THIS
TRANSITION TO OCCUR SOONER THAN LATER AND NOT BE AS SLOW AS THE 12Z
NAM SUGGESTS PARTICULARLY GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS OF W-NW FLOW AT 500MB.
THIS FASTER PROGRESSION AND MOTION OF STORMS MAY SERVE TO CUT BACK
ON RAIN TOTALS...BUT IN LIGHT OF THE FAVORABLE THETA-E AXIS AND
RETURN OF RICHER PWATS EXPECTED...WE/LL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

RATHER STOUT COLD FRONT DIVING TOWARD I-70 IN COLORADO AT 3PM IS DUE
TO ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THIS TIME...
THE MCS SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER
MOST MODELS FAVOR ENOUGH POST-FRONTAL SATURATION ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONT/INVERSION LAYER WHICH SHOULD GARNER ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES
PARTICULARLY AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH GLIDES SE FROM COLORADO.
PRECIP SHOULD BE FADING STEADILY FROM N-S BY SUNRISE AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES GRASP BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...LOW-MID CLOUDS MAY
PROVE STUBBORN TO SHAKE OFF IN THIS MOIST PATTERN...SO WE CONTINUE
TO SIDE WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING BECOMES REESTABLISHED
IN THE WEST.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH A PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THAT ASPECT OF THE FCST. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERHAPS THE OCCASIONAL
STORM POPPING UP DURING THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY EVENING
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT TSTMS UNTIL FRIDAY ROLLS AROUND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  69  53  79 /  80  20  10  10
TULIA         57  69  53  78 /  80  20   0  10
PLAINVIEW     58  70  53  77 /  80  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     58  71  55  79 /  80  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       58  72  55  78 /  80  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   59  73  56  80 /  60  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    59  73  56  80 /  70  40  10  10
CHILDRESS     61  74  56  80 /  70  20   0  10
SPUR          60  74  56  79 /  80  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     63  76  59  79 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

23/33/23


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