Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 230429
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1129 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR again this TAF cycle with any storms likely to remain 100+
miles to the west and northwest of the terminals. Winds will
remain in the 5 to 15 knot range with a few higher gusts possible
during the day Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Large scale subsidence shows little sign of easing through Saturday
even as the center of high pressure aloft relocates west to near
Gallup, NM by Saturday afternoon. As this ridge flattens tomorrow,
an eastward extension of the ridge will build over the South Plains
and serve up another very hot afternoon given negligible 24-hour
temp changes from 850-700 mb. A surface trough meanwhile is shown to
deviate very little from its present axis of Springfield, CO to
Roswell, NM. This trough should once again serve as the primary
focus for storms today through most, if not all, of the weekend.

LONG TERM...
Large scale upper high will flatten somewhat and move westward and
weaken just a bit into the early part of next week.  By mid week,
the high will begin to strengthen again over the Great Basin. This
will allow our flow aloft to become a bit more northwest oriented as
embedded disturbances in the mean flow track out of the Canadian
Prairies into the Ohio Valley.

The hot temperatures will persist. After all, it is summertime.
However, we may see some cooling toward the latter half of the week.
Overall, precip chances will be on the rise.  But, not everywhere
will have a shot of rain each day.  Overall, the northwestern zones
look to have the best opportunity.  Otherwise, more of the same--
perhaps until about the second week of September.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/23



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