Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262358
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
658 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A retreating
dryline may bring an isolated thunderstorm in vicinity of KLBB
before midnight resulting in brief MVFR conditions. Confidence too
low to have in TAFs at the moment. Otherwise breezy southwest
winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
As of 2 pm the dryline had made it as far east as a Turkey to Post
line. There still appears to be a little impetus eastward, but do
not expect a shift more than about 15 to 30 miles further. East of
the dryline surface dew point temperatures holding in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. Satellite imagery showing some cumulus having formed
but nothing vigorous yet. Subsidence in the wake of an upper level
trough that is moving toward north central Texas seems to be
squashing vertical development of the cumulus. That could come to an
end during the late afternoon hours, and thus there remains a chance
that isolated to scattered thunderstorms may yet develop across the
Rolling Plains. Better chances for storms still appears to be from
convection that has initiated in the Pecos River valley and Permian
Basin south of Midland that will migrate northeastward through the
evening. There is a good chance that some of those storms will clip
the southeastern zones. Will thus maintain the highest chances
across the southern Rolling Plains with a tight gradient to slight
chance to the north and west and most areas on the caprock
maintaining no precip mention.

The upper low that is in large part responsible for today`s storms
will move onto the high plains of Colorado and Kansas tonight and
early Friday. This will force the dryline to sweep across the
forecast area early Friday with dry, warm, and breezy conditions
expected.

LONG TERM...
The weekend will start off warm but rather nice as the upper low
passes off to our east. Winds will be calm for west Texas standards
(10 mph or less) and highs will reach into the upper 80s/low 90s.
Shortwave ridging will move overhead by late Saturday ahead of an
approaching upper low that will be positioned over central CA. Some
moisture return will be underway, though exactly how strong it will
be is yet to be determined. The ECMWF continues to be the most
aggressive with moisture return than the GFS. The NAM is more in the
middle of the road between the other two models. Despite their
differences in timing, they are all fairly consistent with
developing showers and thunderstorms by late Sunday evening. The GFS
and NAM bring some convection across the FA by early to mid
afternoon as a few disturbances make their way around the upper
ridge. SBCAPE is progged around 2900-4900 J/kg with the NAM being on
the very high side of that range. Part of the reason the NAM shows
high amounts of CAPE is it shows much more cooling aloft thus higher
lapse rates. Given we will still be under the influence of an upper
ridge, the NAM appears to be overdoing instability. Shear will be
rather weak Sunday afternoon/evening with 20 knots being the average
though it does increase to around 35 knots Sunday night into Monday
morning. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, but
organized widespread severe weather is not expected ATM. Storm
motion will be slow and will allow for very heavy rainfall at times.

Storms will continue to be possible into mid week as the upper low
slowly moves towards the FA. An Alberta Clipper low on late
Tuesday/early Wednesday could push a cold front into the region
which would enhance precip coverage and chances. The ECMWF continues
to be the early bird with the FROPA occurring by 00z Wednesday. The
GFS up until the 06z run has not embraced the idea of a FROPA. The
12z run shows a stronger FROPA than the 06z run but does not have it
pass through until Wednesday afternoon/evening. The forecast will be
a middle of the road mix given the front, if it occurs, is roughly a
week away. High temps during that time frame are tricky as well with
guidance showing highs anywhere from the mid/upper 80s to the low
70s.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/55


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