Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK AT KCDS THEN LIFTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LOWERED VISBYS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  73  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         52  76  51  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  73  54  73  53 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       55  74  54  74  54 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  71  57  71  54 /  20  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    56  73  55  73  54 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     57  81  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  78  57  77  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  57  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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