Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 120418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1018 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR and dry with weak surface high pressure ridge settling over
the area late tonight and early Tuesday - replaced by surface low
pressure troughing mid to late Tuesday. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/

VFR and dry with a weak cold front now south of the TAF sites.
Surface flow expected to remain mostly 11 knots or less and
weaken later in the night besides, as surface ridge settles
overhead. Flow will return to westerly tomorrow, but speeds also
mostly under 11 knots. Will reassess winds for 06Z TAF. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/


Short Term...
Front is working its way through the South Plains this afternoon
with slightly cooler air in its wake. Will make for a chilly
Tuesday morning with low in the mid 20s on the Caprock and near 30
in the lower elevations. Mainly in the 50s areawide tomorrow
perhaps flirting with 60 at Childress with light winds. Another
shortwave dropping southeast across the northern Plains will drive
another weak cold front into our region Wed afternoon and evening
knocking back temperatures again for Thursday. Could see elevated
fire weather conditions Friday into Saturday but should remain
well outside Red Flag conditions with less than criterion winds
and relative humidities around 20% or above.

Medium Range...
Little change from previous forecasts. Western Conus blocking
pattern finally budges in 72 hours with cutoff low still near
Baja. More shortwave energy is poised to cut through the stout
western upper ridge toward the weekend. Shortwave trough late in
the weekend moves closer just to our north. That may create some
wind Saturday ahead of a stronger front and then windy behind the
front on Sunday. May actually stay in the 40s Sunday depending on
cloud cover. Longer Term...still seeing signals of significantly
colder air just beyond 10 days and some model consistency and CFS
agreement ups confidence a tad. Largely amplified pattern with
high amplitude ridging up into Alaska would be favorable flow
pattern for intrusion of modified arctic air around that time
frame. Will watch with interest as we get closer. At least that
scenario might offer some hope for some light precipitation.





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