Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
344 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Today will be seasonably hot across the region with higher
dewpoints and thin high cloud cover helping to keep much of the
South and Rolling Plains from reaching triple digits while the
extreme southwest Texas Panhandle should reach 100 degrees.
Increased southwest downslope surface flow will assist in rising
temperatures as we shift to more zonal flow as the center of the
high pressure to our southwest gets pushed farther south. ECMWF
has been consistent indicating slightly more in the way of height
falls aloft and weak surface convergence setting up along the
TX/NM state line by early afternoon. Thermal profiles with much of
the operational guidance is too hot to support any initiation
anywhere in our area but decided to add a slight chance of
isolated thunderstorms across our southwest counties in case the
30+C values at H85 are overdone.

Thursday continues to be the peak of the heat through the forecast
period as breezy west-southwesterly afternoon winds and a
cloudless sky lead to triple digit heat for most of our area.
Strong consensus continues for the early Friday morning frontal
passage that will be dry as it pushes south out of the Texas
Panhandle and through our CWA by noon Friday. Highs on Friday will
cool by 10 or more degrees from the day before.

The cold front early Friday will stall in the vicinity of the I20
corridor and despite the FROPA, Gulf moisture will remain mostly
unimpeded and surface pressure falls across SE NM with increased
omega timing well with a mid-level shortwave will lead to chances
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday evening into early
Saturday. With rain chances tapering off early Saturday, the rest
of the day will provide enough time for dewpoints to recover back
into the 50s and 60s and the stalled/lingering front begins to
lift and gets pulled east as the deeper synoptic trough exits to
the northeast allowing for a strengthening low-level jet to
potentially lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday into early Sunday. Severe potential for either round of
convection will be low with wind gusts looking to be the most
likely candidate to even come close. Precip chances continue into
late Sunday and the new the work week as the upper level
shortwave pattern continues on the east side of weak ridging
across the southwest.




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