Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Models are consistently showing isolated to scattered convection
across just about the entire FA this afternoon. Another weak short
wave trough was seen on water vapor moving through New Mexico and
may be able to provide some convective enhancement this afternoon in
the absence of any low level forcing. Therefore, there will not be
as much subsidence seen today. With the lack of any low level
forcing, not one area is favored over another for convection. Low
level theta-e values will advect into the region today with south to
southeasterly low level winds. Warmer surface temperatures will
garner increased instability as well with mixed layer CAPEs on the
order of 500-1000 J/kg. Low amounts of shear will likely prevent
widespread organization to any storm development.

A vigorous mid and upper level low pressure trough was digging
through the desert southwest this morning, apparently heading
towards the central or southern sections of the Arizona-New Mexico
border by late Sunday. Solutions have adjusted significantly
eastward with this trough, and likewise were no longer showing
any significant westward movement of the broad low pressure system
currently deepening along the central Texas coast. The result of
these changes were stronger mid and upper level southwest flow
across our region late weekend into at least the first two or
three days of next week, and retaining above normal monsoonal
moisture flow into our area. The Texas coastal low certainly will
moisten lower and mid levels not far to our east, and very well
could contribute to an increase further west into our region as
well by late Sunday or Monday. Still not entirely convinced by the
much more robust increase in moisture shown by the WRF/NAM. And
upper heights that are currently rising but still not enough to
shut off thunder chances, will flatten and probably fall slightly
by late Sunday into Tuesday or so before more significant height
rises later next week.

So, not totally convinced that this is a valid trend, but for now
we are accepting a bit more bullish depiction of thunder in our
area Sunday into Wednesday, along with corresponding slight
reduction in maximum temperatures. Still favoring the dry and
warmer pattern showing by late next week following ejection of the
final 300 millibar upper trough on Wednesday with an upper ridge
axis overhead late Wednesday into early Friday. But this as well
may prove only a temporary reprieve from shower chances as a yet
more significant upper trough is currently depicted to push into
the interior west with increasing southwest flow aloft and
possibly a new subtropical moisture plume to tap into by next
weekend. RMcQueen


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