Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1050 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR conditions with light winds through the TAF period.


.DISCUSSION... A sharp upper-level shortwave diving through the
plains sent a cold front racing through the area today. North
winds have generally remained in the 20 to 30 mph with some gusts
to around 40 mph for the past couple hours, and should continue
for a couple more hours before decreasing after 5 pm or so. The
trailing surface ridge slides across the area tonight, bringing
light winds and with the dry airmass in place, it will be a chilly
night with lows in the 20s and 30s.

A large upper-level ridge centered over srn California will
dominate our weather Wednesday and Thanksgiving. There may be a
weak front/wind shift work through the area on Thanksgiving but it
won`t prevent temperatures from warming nicely. Highs slightly
cooler than average on Wednesday (in the 60s) will warm into the
70s for Thanksgiving.

On Friday, a shortwave rounding the upper ridge into the high
plains will cause cyclogenesis over the Panhandles. And increase
in subsidence and southwesterly flow over our forecast area will
boost temperatures into near-record territory (80s). The
associated cold front is expected to pass through Friday evening,
bringing a modest cool-off for Saturday, then quickly warmer
again on Sunday. Through this period moisture will be lacking at
the surface and aloft, keeping precip. chances at bay.

The start of next week should be mild and dry underneath broad
west-southwest flow across the region. Toward midweek there is a
pretty good signal in the latest deterministic GFS and ECMWF and
the ensemble data that an upper trough will dig southward through
the Rockies while a stronger front surges south through the
plains. This should produce a pronounced cool down by Wednesday,
although at this point precip. chances still look pretty dim.

Gusty north winds, above average temperatures, and dry air have
resulted in critical fire weather conditions across much of the
forecast area this afternoon. Conditions will improve toward
evening as winds relax and temperatures begin to cool off.

Critical or near-critical fire conditions may return on Friday in
a dry, very warm and breezy pre-frontal regime.




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