Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 152349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
549 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions in place at all TAF sites. However, expect MVFR
ceilings to return after midnight local time as low level moisture
moves back over the area. Still some uncertainty on when ceilings
will develop but confidence is high that they should remain MVFR
through the night. Ceilings will burn off late Thursday morning
with VFR conditions through the day.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017/

Immediate short term issue will be return low level southeast
flow and more widespread low clouds than earlier expected. Upped
sky coverage overnight into Thursday Rolling Plains and at least
southern part of the areas on the Caprock. Solutions have also
trended a bit more toward fog possibilities near or mainly now
just west of the Texas-New Mexico line, but we have not added
that. Stratus should mix/erode to the east by late morning or so
Thursday with weak surface troughing and a warmer day resulting.

Stronger westerly components aloft will factor into deeper surface
low pressure trough Friday and more veered low level flow.
Strongest flow aloft likely remaining mainly to the north during
the afternoon, and then passing by Friday night with an upper
trough passage, so we may avoid stronger wind from this system.
Still, we expect to mix fairly deeply and result in breezy to low
end windy day Friday, strongest northern zones. Also unseasonably
warm with highs mostly well into the 80s - perhaps touching 90 a
few parts of the Rolling Plains.

Wave passing by will send cold front southward early Saturday
morning - solutions have trended a bit breezier and cooler early
Saturday and we have incorporated as well into our grids. Chilly
early Sunday with surface ridge passing overhead so a slow start
to the warmth. But surface trough will redevelop and temperatures
will recover back near 60 at least.

Solutions still in reasonable agreement Monday with passage of a
low amplitude wave through the southern Rockies - perhaps just
some high clouds - and additional warming into the 60s. From then,
solutions highly diverge with the jumble of energy in the eastern
Pacific factoring into low probability outcome in our area. For
now, we will retain slight chance showers with possibility of a
stronger wave mid-week, but GFS has just about zeroed out this
wave while ECMWF has slowed and deepened it. hmmm.

More interest lies later in the week - Thanksgiving holiday
after-all - perhaps upstream ridging along the west coast will
allow some amount of meridional component aimed toward our area.
Just watching for trends and persistent signals at this point.

Stronger wind flow aloft will overlap the area Friday, though
upstream disturbance and front do not look on track until Friday
night. Still, we expect deep enough mixing at least to tap into
breezy or low end windy conditions and probably widespread
elevated fire danger. If the stronger winds develop - probably
more likely across the Panhandle and perhaps northern part of the
Texas South Plains - there could be critical fire weather
conditions. Fuels appear capable of being receptive. Deferring
actions until later shifts. RMcQueen




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