Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 281617 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1117 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A SEASONABLY WARM/HOT LATE JUNE DAY. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT THIS
HEAT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN CI IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE SIGNALS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED...BUT
THE STRONGEST HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CI /AND LIMITED
COVERAGE SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP/ WE HAVE MAINTAIN POPS NEAR
10 PERCENT WHERE THE THUNDER MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. DESPITE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO A CUMULUS FIELD WITH BASES NEAR
FL060 TO FL070 THIS AFTERNOON...ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE VERY ISOLATED WITH PROBABILITY OF DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY TERMINAL
VERY LOW. THREAT OF LOW CEILINGS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ALL
SITES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY SPARKING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALTHOUGH
MORE THAN LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

BEST GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT FOLLOWING DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 1.5-
2 KJ/KG AS A 35-45 KNOT UPPER JET NOSES THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS
LEADING TO BETTER DEEP LAYER LIFT. HOWEVER...STRONGER H85 WIND
FIELDS WILL BE AVAILABLE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TO FEED INTO
ANY SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20
KNOTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW CELLS TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR A
SHORT TIME...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD COMING IN THE FORM OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS BENEATH A SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER AS FAIRLY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION KEEP EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL. LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES
COMBINED WITH A WARM AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S-LOW 70S.

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH 240 HOURS.  THE INFLUENCE OF COURSE IS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
INTERACTION WITH THE JET WHICH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY.  MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY BEFORE A BIT OF A GYRATION OCCURS WITH THE
HIGH THUS VEERING THE FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY
AND THENCE NORTHEASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A BIT OF A
REORGANIZATION OF THE HIGH...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SEES A BACKING OF
THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN WHICH PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW...A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
TO OUR NORTHEAST THE FIRST OF WHICH WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THURSDAY
MORNING NIGHT WITH PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER TROUGHS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TSTM ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE REGION.  BY TUESDAY MORNING
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DRY OUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INDICATED
BY MOST ALL THE SOLUTIONS.  AS THE FLOW BACKS TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY VECTOR...TSTMS WILL FIRE ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF NERN NM AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD.  AS THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC
POPS UP IN THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  IN GENERAL...THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT LATE NIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL THEN PERSIST EACH NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.  ALL IN ALL...ALMOST THE SAME STORY DAY AFTER DAY FOR
THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRIER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  90  63 /  10  20  30  20
TULIA         89  66  90  65 /  10  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     88  66  90  65 /  10  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     89  67  91  66 /  10  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       90  69  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  65 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    90  67  92  66 /  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     93  70  96  70 /   0  20  20  20
SPUR          89  68  91  67 /   0  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     94  71  96  70 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/01



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.