Area Forecast Discussion
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094
FXUS64 KLUB 202051
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
251 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather and wind on Sunday will be the only eventful things
within the next several days. The drought will continue with very
little chances of precipitation over the next week.

An upper level system with its center of circulation was currently
over southern Nevada which will bring us the winds for Sunday.
Overall, there is not much deviation from the previous forecast. An
extreme height/pressure gradient will be centered overhead on Sunday
afternoon. The highest winds will be centered on the caprock into
eastern New Mexico. Guidance seems to indicate sustained speeds
close to 40 mph with possible high wind gusts. Temperatures will be
much cooler than experienced today with a pacific cold front moving
through during the morning. This will also serve to shove east the
low level thermal ridge potentially somewhat easing a fire weather
threat. Temperatures at 850mb will be significantly lower from today
into tomorrow afternoon. Afterwards, a stronger cold front will move
through Sunday night. Analog guidance does pick up on one event on
21 Dec 2007 where a 4500 acre wildfire was observed in Yoakum
County.

As previously mentioned, not much eventful weather will occur after
Sunday. A deepening trough across the western US by late in the week
may promote additional strong winds around Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much stronger winds will spread over the region on Sunday in
response to a powerful upper level storm system moving overhead.
Sustained winds at the 20 foot level will likely be between 30 and
35 mph with highest winds on the caprock. However, a pacific cold
front moving through the region during the morning will keep
temperatures around to just above seasonal averages. Very dry air in
place will still allow afternoon relative humidity values to drop
below critical levels for the Rolling Plains and portions of the
South Plains. More uncertainty exists across the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle where temperatures may be too cool for
critical relative humidity values.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for TXZ021>044.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

01



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