Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240535
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY STILL FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC OR 09
UTC...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

UPDATE...
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
WEST TEXAS MESONET SITES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ARE STILL SHOWING PERIODIC ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME WE
ARE PLANNING ON ENDING THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM AS SCHEDULED.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY AT KCDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SHOULD DROP UNDER 20 KTS BY 7 OR 8
PM...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        17  47  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  46  25  61  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  47  26  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  48  24  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       26  49  27  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   23  48  25  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    24  47  25  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     30  51  29  65  40 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          29  50  28  63  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     31  51  30  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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