Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR is expected through the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

Convective cloud debris was proving resilient across the area this
morning after beginning its journey Monday afternoon along the
Sangre de Cristos of NM. These clouds have kept lows quite mild
thus far which is staving off fog and to a lesser extent low cloud
development. Additional, but thinner, high clouds look to stream
through the area today around a dirty ridge centered east of
Phoenix. These clouds however will have little impact on temps as
milder thicknesses arrive behind a departing surface ridge.

With surface troughing poised well to our NW today, storm chances
are near zero except in the far SW Panhandle this evening. Should
any storms find the courage to survive this far south in meager NW
flow, then they`ll at least benefit from an improving theta-E ridge
after sunset. Odds are better that any storms in the western
Panhandle or the NM Plains die a quick death as they encounter a
zonal upper ridge camped out across the South Plains. By Wednesday,
mid-level heights within the zonal ridge axis are progged to relax
enough for an improved shot at late-day and overnight storms
wandering south, mainly into our N-NW zones where ensemble
clustering is greatest. Otherwise, the mean surface trough will have
budged very little since Tue from northeast NM thru western KS, with
a similar placement on Thu.

Heights continue to lower on Thu within the upper ridge, but the
core models and Superblend are suspiciously absent with late day QPF
due in large part to steady warming of temps at 700 mb over much of
the High Plains. Some extended CAMs favor a more bullish scenario
Thursday afternoon and evening which from a gut feeling perspective
seems plausible should mid-level warming not be as strong. For now,
have stayed in step with silent PoPs of the neighboring offices for
Thu and Thu night. The subdued warming aloft will also play a large
part in mitigating high temps - a theme which is readily apparent in
the markedly "cooler" MEX and ECE MOS guidance. Current max temps
for Thu and Fri fall short of our heat advisory threshold everywhere
(cue the tiny violins) and these numbers may even need to be
trimmed considering we`ll have thicker low-level moisture than
last Fri and Sat when dewpoints cratered into the single digits
with ease.

Lastly, global models are converging later this week regarding the
evolution of troughs in fast westerly flow near the 49th Parallel.
Although the 00Z ECMWF is now the laggard in releasing a robust cold
front south through the Plains this weekend, overall spread with
this front through our area among the GFS, ECM and CMC is now
within a 24-hour window as opposed to 48-hour range of
possibilities this time yesterday. We currently favor FROPA Fri
night with fair chances for storms under cyclonic NW flow. GFS
appears overblown with episodic convection this weekend in the
post-frontal regime, so the generous Superblend PoPs were shrunk
back to mostly 20% each day before shallow upper ridging rebounds
and helps warm the column early next week.




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