Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191128
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR and light wind through 12Z TAF cycle. A few storms may
develop or move to near KLBB in the 20Z-02Z time frame, but
probability too low to include at this time. JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper-air analysis and water vapor imagery this morning shows an
upper ridge centered over southwest Texas with an upper trough
over California. In-between, sub-tropical moisture was moving out
of northwest Mexico into far west Texas and srn New Mexico. The
ridging over Texas may not be strong enough to completely
suppress convection across our forecast area today. Some of the
high-res guidance shows convective signals focused on the southern
Rolling Plains. We`ve added a isolated mention to the forecast to
cover this possibility. Guidance also suggests that temperatures
will warm just a couple degrees over Friday, with highs near 90 in
the far southwest Panhandle to upper 90s in the Low Rolling
Plains.

On Sunday, the bulk of the moisture plume will remain to the west
over NM, but guidance is showing several small-scale convectively-
induced vortices that will be lifting northeast across NM and
support t-storm activity out near the TX-NM state line by Sunday
evening. These vortices will likely keep t-storm activity going
through the night across much of eastern NM and potentially
spreading farther east across the far southwest TX Panhandle and
western South Plains. Unfortunately, it looks like there is a good
chance that cloud cover associated with this activity may extend
east across portions of the Caprock Monday and interfere with the
viewing of the eclipse. However, there is still uncertainty with
just how the activity will evolve overnight and it`s still
possible skies could at least partially clear for some locations.
We are fairly confident that the chances for good viewing
conditions will be better east than west, with the Lubbock area
located roughly in the middle.

Upper-ridging will pump up across the area Monday into Tuesday,
temporarily reducing rain chances. But the chances will be on the
upswing late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves into
the South Plains. The upper trough supporting the front appears to
be fairly vigorous as it moves out of Canada into the Midwest and
should support widespread convection along the front across the
central and southern plains. So we are pretty confident that the
front will reach our forecast area, but there is still some
uncertainty in the timing, with the ECMWF bringing it through late
Tuesday and the GFS on Wednesday. As the western trough finally
ejects across the plains late week, it looks like we will maintain
a favorable pattern for t-storm chances for several days,
especially if the front lingers in the area. The GFS has also come
on board with the cooler ECMWF temperatures, with highs mainly in
the 80s beyond Tuesday, and perhaps some 70s Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33/33/13



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