Area Forecast Discussion
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575
FXUS64 KLUB 081732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES MAINLY IMPACTING KCDS TODAY AND
TO LESSER EXTENT KPVW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 23Z AND 24Z
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH DRY AND VFR OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS...SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH AFFECT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND REALLY RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WE WILL SEE SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT
IN BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FROPA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND
AVERAGE TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA /STRONGEST NEAR CHILDRESS/
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR AVERAGE
/MOSTLY IN THE 20S/.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST DETAILS WITH WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST. SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY/S PEAK BUT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY
NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF
QUICKLY DISINTEGRATES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF PROMOTES A MORE
COMPACT AND PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE POLAR JET
GLANCING US TO THE EAST AND REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHILE THE GFS SPLITS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE SE PACIFIC. BOTH SCENARIOS
KEEP US DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE
GFS WOULD MERELY ALLOW FOR WARMER GULF AIR AND GULF MOISTURE TO
ENCROACH OUR LATITUDE FROM THE SOUTH.

OTHERWISE LITTLE CONCERN IN SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. WE MAY SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK AND
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS ON THOSE DAYS
BUT WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE INCHING CLOSER WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT DRY AIR WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST /SUSTAINED
AT 15 TO 25 MPH/ AND TEMPERATURES HIGHEST /IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S/...A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR OFF THE CAPROCK FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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