Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 162030
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
230 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of short waves are still on track to affect the region
over the next several days followed by a significant pattern
change at the end of next week.

The first short wave was currently extending as far south as
northwestern Mexico and will continue to lift out to the northeast
this evening. Strong jet level winds on the east side of the short
wave will bring large scale lift mostly east of the forecast area
for the rest of today. There is abundant mid and upper level
moisture with this system evidenced on GOES-16 water vapor
imagery but low levels remain fairly dry. This short wave will
quickly move east of the area tonight followed by a weak surface
cold front during the day on Sunday.

Models are still inconsistent in the handling of the second short
wave after it becomes cut off from the northern stream. This short
wave was currently moving into Baja California and will move very
slowly over the next few days. The main difference in model
guidance is on the timing of the ejection of this system but lift
will favor the Rolling Plains on Tuesday. Mid level moisture will
be available for this lift but lower levels of the atmosphere will
again be lacking. Much better low level moisture will exist to the
south and east of the region which is usually the case.

The pattern change coming at the end of next week will bring a
large atmospheric dump of arctic air into West Texas. A
reinforcing shot of cold air may enter late next weekend before
Christmas with both the GFS and ECMWF depicting a 1056mb surface
ridge moving into the north-central CONUS. Colder temperatures are
the most certain part of the forecast following the initial cold
front during the day on Thursday. However, anything else in the
forecast remains murky. The latest ECMWF continues to be dry while
the GFS is in sharp contrast bringing wintry precipitation to the
area.



&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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