Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 272336 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A well-defined short wave moving into the northern Rockies today
will drag a modest mid level moisture plume across our area
tonight into Wednesday though within a low amplitude upper ridge
passing overhead. Lift mainly to the north, but storms currently
firing over the higher terrain in northern New Mexico will make a
run southeast towards our western areas late this evening. Short
range solutions have waffled on activity making it as far
southeast as our area - though current trends now move activity
in. We have increased to low chance thunder favoring our northwest
overnight. A very outside risk for strong winds as these storms
approach.

Heights will remain suppressed and flow more deeply veered
Wednesday and especially Thursday with airmass continuing to dry.
The addition of downslope surface wind components Thursday with
the 33-34 degree centigrade 850 millibar air will lead to the
hottest day coming up - guidance similar with highs Thursday
mostly in the 101-104 degree range. Apparent temperatures at this
point would not suggest a need for a heat advisory product but it
may be fairly close on that. Strong heating could stir up a
cumulus field along the dry-line near the edge of the Caprock by
late Thursday, solutions are very limited on ability to break
through the cap, however.

A front is still on track to pass southward early Friday morning,
probably enhanced by outflows from the north. Moisture quantity
is questionable as well as lift - solutions current dry with
frontal passage. Instability and moisture will improve post
frontal but lifting mechanisms uncertain. Holding on to much of
previous plan for low chances of thunder mainly late Friday into
early Sunday favoring the northeast corner. But hard to rule out
some possibility anywhere Saturday as moisture will be more
widespread.

Upper heights look to rebuild Sunday into early next week with a
new ridge center forming just to our west or southwest, eventually
taking it`s typical four corners spot mid to late week. Can`t rule
out weak waves especially Sunday night which current solutions
agree and justifies a low mention for thunder northeast again. But
hard to find discernible waves beyond. Heating should be strong
with available moisture so may very well have isolated coverage at
times though when and where not sure so prefer no mention.
RMcQueen


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/14/14



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