Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

857
FXUS64 KLUB 102322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 10-12 KTS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GENERALLY LIGHT WSW WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
LEAD TO LOW TEMPS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW MOS. THE ARRIVAL OF A
MODEST COLD FRONT BY SUNRISE WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MINOR DECREASE IN UPPER
HEIGHTS POINT TO HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY...MAYBE A BIT MORE THAN THAT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE TEMPS WILL
SO WARM THIS AFTN. THIS PUTS THINGS ON THE WARMER END OF MOS...A
TREND THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY A WINNER FOR A NUMBER OF WEEKS NOW. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TAME BEHIND THE FRONT...SO NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY AFTN ATTM.

LONG TERM...
WARM...DRY...AND A LITTLE WIND WILL BE THE FOCUS INTO NEXT WEEK SANS
A FEW RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTS. A LEE TROF WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY PASSIVE BACKDOOR FRONT
WHICH WILL PUSH IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE FLOW GOING INTO
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER LEE TROF WILL SET UP EARLY SUNDAY AND PUSH
INTO THE FA AS A PACIFIC FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD
OF THE TROF/FRONT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST POST FROPA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
ANY REMAINING SURFACE MOISTURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING TO HAVE PRECIP
FOLLOWING ALONG THE FRONT BUT NOT UNTIL THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE FA.
THIS SEEMS TO WORK VERY WELL GIVEN SURFACE MOISTURE WILL OUTRUN THE
UPPER LEVEL LIFT UNTIL IT IS CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. WITH THAT THE WX
GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BLANK. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AT A LATER TIME WILL BE FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN COMBINING WITH SLIGHTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MID
WEEK AS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE RIDGE
AXIS SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS WARM AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GET THAT GREEN THUMB ITCHING WORSE THAN WEARING A WOOL
SWEATER. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-036>038.

&&

$$

29/99/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.