Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51






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