Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 211218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
718 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

VFR contintions are expected to continue the next 24 hours. Winds
will remain southerly, but at speeds below critical levels.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

Today is expected to be pretty much a carbon copy of Wednesday.
Temperatures will either be the same or possibly a degree or so
warmer as the center of the upper ridge which has been over Oklahoma
begins to slowly drift west.

Only real big change in the forecast from yesterday is GFS`s
evolution of the upper ridge by mid next week. The ridge is still
expected to flatten by the end of the weekend allowing a very weak
front to push into the the extreme northwestern TX Panhandle by late
Saturday which will have little influence in our FA. The ridge
remains flat into early next week, but some monsoonal moisture may
be able to make its way into the region on Monday allowing for some
diurnally driven isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop. By
mid week the ECMWF stands by its word on the ridge pushing off to
our northwest opening up northwesterly flow aloft. This would in
turn increase precip chances. The GFS does push the ridge westward
but still keeps the FA under its grasp and hinders most precip
chances. For now the forecast will continue to reflect mostly the
ECMWF as it has by far been the most consistent. Pops will be left
at no higher than the slight chance category given the still
uncertain fate of the ridge. Temps will continue to reflect a
downward trend from the weekend into next week as the ridge flattens
and thicknesses decrease.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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