Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
639 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Dry air in the lower atmosphere appears to be conflicting with
the ability to generate low clouds this morning, as solutions have
been eagerly anticipating all night. Latest short term solutions
still only barely backing off, in spite of discrepancies between
observed and zero hour/one hour/two hour forecasts. We have backed
away to only mention scattered deck at both KPVW and KCDS by mid
morning, with no current mention of low clouds in the KLBB TAF.
Low level flow becoming more moist south to southeasterly by late
tonight as well, which should favor low cloud development by early
Thursday morning. Yet solutions remain in disagreement. So with
only modest confidence will not include low cloud mention yet in
the 18+ hour part of the TAF forecast. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/


It will be cooler today following yesterday`s cold front, while low
clouds remain fairly uncertain this morning. Low cloud deck has not
advanced significantly southward from the Oklahoma Panhandle, and
actually a bit of a retreat occurred. Short range solutions have
further delayed these clouds southward into our area, but insist by
mid morning on a low cloud deck extending through much of the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle, and persisting some areas as late
as midday. High temperatures may not be significantly impacted,
but we have edged slightly towards the warmer guidance expecting
sunshine most areas, especially by later today. Tonight, an upper
level ridge axis will edge just east of the area, with backing
flow aloft. A weak high level impulse will lift northeast into the
area late evening and after midnight. Solutions differ also on
extent of low clouds tonight, but the WRF/NAM has trended towards
a bit more, and so have we. Moist low level south-southeast flow
fairly classic setup for low clouds, especially on the Caprock
later tonight. This should result in fairly mild night-time
temperatures, mostly mid to upper 50s. Cannot rule out a few
showers as the impulse overrides low level warm advection, but the
moist layer doesn`t appear significantly thick. Patchy drizzle
seems a more likely outcome, though even this is low confidence
for now. RMcQueen


Our strong storm system is still on track for Thursday and Friday
with high winds, strong to severe storms and fire weather all still
real threats from the system. With the approach of the low on
Thursday, we`ll see winds quickly ramp up out of the south reaching
near or just above Wind Advisory criteria. A dryline will set up
right along the TX/NM border during the afternoon and start to
makes its move eastward during the early evening. Though we`ll
remain under a strong cap most of Thursday, the movement of the
dryline along with the added lift of the potent low shifting east
will help erode the cap quickly during the evening. Good upper
level support exists for the development of supercells with decent
shear expected. Large hail will be the primary threat, though
thermodynamic profiles do suggest the probability of downburst
winds as well. The severe threat will sweep across the forecast
area overnight, and we`ll experience a brief respite in the
winds. The latest model runs now bring the center of the low
further south when it takes its southeast jog, now pulling it
across the TX Panhandle on Friday afternoon. The GFS is the most
progressive in this southern jaunt, with the NAM not far behind.
This may allow some wrap around moisture to approach the northern
portions of the forecast area on Friday, though at this time it
appears this may remain in the form of cloud cover. More
importantly, we will see a wind max spread across the forecast
area that will most likely put much of the Caprock into at least
the Wind Advisory category along with blowing dust. One positive,
the winds will be out of the northwest, dragging cooler air in,
and thus, finally giving us a nice break from the heat for a day
or two.

Sunday afternoon sees the passing of a weak trough just to our
north. Call it the "middle sister" trough, with the sibling troughs
on either side raising quite the commotion, and Sunday`s trough is
left to quickly pass in between. Other than a breezy afternoon,
that`s about all we`ll see from that one. From there, we will be
watching the development of yet another strong trough into a closed
low for midweek next week. Long range models agree on the
development of this feature, but they`re still working out the
details on the timing, movement and strength. We`ll keep you




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