Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 271741 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER EAST TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH THE EXPANSE OF THE FEATURE HAS BROADENED
SOMEWHAT. A TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING THOUGH ITS IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE WEAK. SOME
WEAK H7 FRONTOGENESIS IS NOTED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE HRRR
AND NMM DO INDICATE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
OUR SOUTHEAST BUT THE SIGNAL IS QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. PLUS...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WOULD TEND TO LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
LONG SHOT...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF TSTMS OUT. OUT TOWARD THE
WEST...A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL EXISTS THATNKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. EVEN STILL...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY LOW. WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP...BUT POPS NEAR 10
PCT SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE SETUP AND TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY WX PERSISTS.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PROGGED EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT
DESCRIBED THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
APPEARING THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DOES
NOT SHIFT AS FAR TO THE EAST AS PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND THE RIDGE
DOES NOT BREAK DOWN AS MUCH EITHER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN THE CHALLENGE AS IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE INFLUENCES OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT. THE LACK OF BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
WILL LIMIT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED
JUST INTO THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING. THIS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE NW AND NCNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA
MIDWEEK. WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND
AND THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ONCE AGAIN...
SLIM RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND FAVORED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        95  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         95  69  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     93  70  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  70  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       96  72  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  70  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          98  72  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 101  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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