Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016


Next upper trof is about to move onshore in the Pacific Northwest
with 100+ kt upper jet moving through CA towards the Great Basin.
This will continue to make progress across the Rockies through
Sunday bringing windy conditions to southern Colorado.
Currently...hitting red flag criteria across the San Luis
Valley...portions of Fremont county...and the southeast mountains
including the Wets...Sangres...and Wet Mountain Valley.  Spotty
areas along the I-25 corridor have also been hitting
criteria...specifically the Fort Carson area...and down around
Walsenburg...but coverage has been too sparse in those corresponding
zones to warrant further expansion of highlights thus far. Will let
current set of Red Flag Warnings continue until scheduled expiration
at 7 PM.  Winds will relax tonight...though mountain peaks will
continue to see some 50-60 mph gusts at times overnight.  Lee of the
southeast mountains could see some gusts up to 40 mph at times in
normal windy spots late tonight through early Sunday as weak mtn
wave sets up.

Stronger winds aloft on Sunday will mix down into the lower
elevations by afternoon...and with humidity values remaining
critically low.  Set up will be ripe for another critical fire
weather day across the mountains and valleys.  With lee trof
deepening...gusty winds should spread out onto the plains as well.
Thus...Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
with the afternoon package.  Some locations will take a little
longer for gusty winds to materialize...including locations like PUB
and COS in wake regions of the Wet Mts and Pikes Peak. High res
models pick up on this nicely.  But by mid afternoon those locations
should also start seeing gusts of 25-30 mph mix across the region.
Thus all outdoor activities that could start a fire should be
suspended as condition will be favorable for rapid rates of fire
growth and spread. Temperatures will once again be well above
average...with some locations approaching record highs. Records on
Sunday are: ALS 77 in 1991, COS 85 in 1991, PUB 94 in 1991.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Main longer term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures, critical fire weather concerns/strong winds at
times(especially into Monday evening) and increasing
precipitation potential by the middle of next week.

Latest longer term computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings suggest that basically dry southwesterly to zonal
upper flow will prevail over the CWFA from Sunday night into Tuesday
with cooler conditions in combination with increased precipitation
chances anticipated from Tuesday night into Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning as an upper disturbance and an north-northeasterly
surface surge impact the forecast district.

Then warmer and drier conditions are expected to develop over
southern Colorado from Friday into at least next Saturday as strong
upper ridging becomes centered over southern Arizona by later

In addition...have also issued a high wind watch over many higher
terrain locations from late Sunday afternoon into late Monday
afternoon as several meteorological parameters coming into place
for a potential high wind event during this time-frame.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are still projected to run above
mid-October climatological averages over the majority of the
forecast district from Sunday evening into Tuesday with cooler
conditions then anticipated from later Tuesday into Friday morning
with temperatures then rebounding from later Friday into at least
next Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Winds will be the main concern over the next 24 hours...with gusty
southwest winds expected to spread into the TAF sites during the
afternoon and evening hours.  KALS already gusting to a little over
25 kts...and suspect KCOS and KPUB will see winds increase by 22z.
Winds should decouple for the terminals by 02z.  Mtn top winds will
remain strong...and by morning pockets of LLWS will be possible
along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains.  KCOS may
be too far east for a LLWS threat below will leave out of
the TAF for now...but window of possibility would be between 12z-
16z.  Winds should increase by late morning on Sunday with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range during the afternoon at all three sites.
Otherwise...expect some passing high cloudiness at times...though
any cigs should be brief and remain VFR. -KT



Issued at 347 PM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across fire zones
222, 224 and 225 through this evening.  Spotty areas along the I-25
corridor will also see critical fire weather conditions into early
evening...though conditions should stay limited in coverage. Winds
will decouple across the lower elevations this evening...though max
relative humidity recovery is expected to remain poor for the lower
eastern slopes and I-25 corridor.  Jet stream moving into the
western U.S will cause winds to increase again on Sunday with breezy
to windy conditions expected across all of southern Colorado.
Critical Fire weather conditions will be met across all of southern
Colorado where fuels are deemed critical...therefore Fire Weather
Watches will be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings with the afternoon
package.  -KT

From later Monday morning into Monday evening...have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for roughly the eastern 2/3rds of the fire
district...i.e. similar to Sunday`s fire highlights location due
to the existing dry conditions...continued/projected very warm
temperatures...projected low minimum relative humidity values and
gusty winds.



Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ221-222-

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ221-222-224>237.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-225.

High Wind Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for


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