Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180556
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS A BIT...REMOVING MENTIONABLE POPS
FROM KCOS. SHOULD SEE ALL SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY DIE OFF IN A COUPLE
HOURS. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK...LOOKS PRETTY QUIET NEXT 24
HOURS. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FROM EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.  WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL
KEEP THESE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MOVING TOO MUCH.  ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE
TERRAIN.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN
SETS WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.  DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS RATHER ISOLATED.  MOST MODELS HOLD OFF ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AROUND 21Z WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY...WHILE NORTHERN PORTION PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MOST MODEL SOLUTION MOVE THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ODILE
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF NM INTO SW KS BY FRI EVENING...THOUGH
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER ERRATIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...KEEPS
THE CIRCULATION FARTHER SOUTH OVER ERN NM/W TX. STILL APPEARS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS DURING THE DAY FRI
WILL BE ALONG THE NM BORDER IN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO INCH APPEAR
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
MUCH LESS ...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW DON`T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FRI SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGF
OFF OF MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

UPPER RIDGE THEN BRIEFLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES
SAT/SUN...BEFORE WESTERN U.S. CUT OFF LOW PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE E-SE OVER THE WEEKEND....AND WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE IN PLACE
UNDER THE HIGH...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AREA-WIDE ON SUN AS SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS. MAX
TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN LOOK SEASONABLY COOL...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW LIFTS E-NE OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST FORCING THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
TUE...THOUGH SOME STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE KS BORDER. DRIER CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THEN DEVELOP WED AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE REBUILDS. MAX TEMPS WILL
STAY AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO AVN CONCERNS NEXT 24-30 HOURS...SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE


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