Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 292122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
AND POPS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EASTERN SECTIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SO FAR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST
LOCATIONS.

REAL-TIME DATA AS WELL AS NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...MAJORITY OF
STORMS QUICKER FORECAST MOVEMENT MAY PRECLUDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES/CONCERNS.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

FINALLY...HEALTHY UPPER RIDGING(596+ MB) INITIALLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL UTAH AT 00Z TUESDAY IS PROJECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ALLOWING ABOVE SEASONAL LAST DAY OF
JUNE MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE NOTED IN COMBINATION
WITH BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.  MANY SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

...AN BIT MORE ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK THEN DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...

THE STOUT RIDGE TO OUR WEST THE LAST FEW DAYS IS FCST TO BREAK DOWN
AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AS WE
COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS
SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...

FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ENSUE AND WE SHOULD MOISTEN UP BY LATE IN THE DAY AS FLOW
TURNS UPSLOPE. PROJECTED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30 KNTS OF
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SVR STORMS. MID LVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BE NW`ERLY SO STORMS SHOULD PUSH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.

SCTD MTN/VALLEY STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

THURSDAY...

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE THAT IS FCST
TO COME THROUGH DURING PRIME HEATING. CAPES PROJECTED TO BE 750-1500
THIS DAY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40 KNT RANGE. LIKEWISE...WE WILL
SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SVR STORMS DURING THIS DAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS
UPWARD THIS DAY WITH SCATTERED POPS ALL AREAS. ALSO MENTIONED
MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDDS.

ONCE AGAIN...SCTD MTN/VALLEY STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FRIDAY...

A BIT DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE REGION AND CAPES ARE FCST
TO FALL OFF A BIT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. WE WILL ALSO SEE HEIGHTS RISING...SO THIS MAY BE A DETRIMENTAL
FACTOR FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. NONETHELESS...WE WILL HAVE THE CHANCE
TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP THIS DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD.

SATURDAY...

RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE FARTHER EAST WITH DECREASING FLOW ALOFT. CAPES
FCST TO DRY OUT AND POPS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE JULY 4TH.
LIKEWISE...JULY 4TH MAY BE WARM WITH ISOLD POPS.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLD POPS WITH WARM TEMPS IN THE 90S
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES OVER AND NEAR THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...77



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