Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 172220
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Another mild afternoon over southern Colorado as upper level ridge
hangs on for one more day across the Rockies. Still waiting for
first piece of the deep western trough to reach the Continental
Divide, with radar and obs suggesting most precip this afternoon
still fairly far west over Utah/nrn Arizona. Overnight, mid level
flow gradually becomes more swly across the region as upper low
pushes onshore across California. Models suggest brief period of
snow showers still possible along the Divide later tonight as
initial wave lifts north, though coverage/amounts will be
spotty/light. Just increasing cloud cover elsewhere, with another
relatively mild Feb night in store as clouds and winds hold temps
up. On Sat, low and mid level S-SW flow increases as upper low
pushes into wrn AZ by late afternoon. Continental Divide should see
a lull in snowfall Sat morning between upper waves, with increasing
precip late as moist sly flow pushes into the San Juans. Breezy and
mild elsewhere as surface pressure begins to fall in the lee of the
eastern mountains. Slight increase in 700 mb temps looks to be
offset by increased cloud cover, leading to max temps near or just
slightly cooler than Fri maxes.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Saturday Night and Sunday...Latest model runs are indicating a
different path for the upper low pressure system over the weekend.
Sat night the low pressure trough will extend south along the West
Coast, with the low center located over southern CA. The low then
migrates to the northeast, crossing the Great Basin on Sun and the
trough axis moving into the Dakotas and eastern CO Sun night. This
solution indicates that the window of heavier snowfall will likely
move up in time and start earlier, lasting through Sun day and
night, then shut off through Mon morning as the flow aloft shifts to
a more northwest direction. At this time, forecast snowfall amounts
along the peaks of the ContDvd are returning total accumulations in
the 7 to 12 inch range through Sun night, so perhaps an advisory is
in the offing. As for temps, brisk southerly flow will keep the high
valleys in the 40s and 50s initially, while the plains should warm
up into the upper 60s.

Monday and Tuesday...As the upper trough exits to the east, pcpn
will come to an end across the higher terrain by midday Monday. Dry
and warm conditions for about a day as temporary ridging moves in,
then southwest flow aloft increases once again late Tuesday night.
Look for mild max temps on Mon with readings in the 40s and 50s for
the high valleys, and 60s for the plains. Tue then heats up with 50s
and 60s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s for the
plains.

Wednesday through Friday...Southwest flow increases late Tue and
into Wed as the next Pacific low pressure system digs south across
the Pacific NW on Wed, then sweeps across the northern Rockies on
Thu. Snow returns to the ContDvd starting late Tue night, overnight
into Wed morning, then continues across all of the higher terrain
until Thu when a cold front drops south across the plains and brings
an isolated shot of some moisture for the east. Activity will then
taper off and diminish through Thu night into Fri. High temps are
forecast to be in the 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and in
the 60s to around 70F for the plains on Wed, but then look for a 5
to 10 degrees drop in temp for Thu, and another 5 to 10 degrees drop
for Fri. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions expected at the terminals tonight and Saturday with
gradually thickening cirrus overcast across the region. Winds
overnight will become light drainage at most locations after 02z,
with gusty S-SE flow developing at KPUB and KCOS after 18z Sat. Over
the mountains, higher peaks along the Continental Divide will be
occasionally obscured by clouds and snow showers overnight and
through the day Sat.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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