Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152146
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow returns to the southwest mountains and portions of the
  San Luis Valley late tonight into early Saturday morning, with
  accumulating snow likely over the southwest mountains. Winter
  Storm Warning extended for the E. San Juans.

- Rain and snow possible across the southeast mountains and
  portions of the plains Saturday into early Sunday morning.
  Confidence is low at this time.

- Warmer into the work week, with increasing chances of showers
  by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Snow has really diminished over most of southern Colorado this
afternoon, with really only some light snow being reported
across the southern mountains and far southern I-25 corridor.
For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening time frame,
expect similar conditions, if not additional drying as focus and
large scale ascent lessens during this time frame. Given these
anticipated trends, did cancel the winter storm warnings for
portions of the southwest mountains and Sangres this afternoon.
Once again, additional accumulating snows and impacts are not
expected. The fog which was in place across portions of El Paso
county has since diminished, but there is some potential for it
to return if at least briefly tonight. Confidence is low on
trends, but did go ahead and keep it in the forecast for
tonight.

The upper low of interest remains situated to the southwest of
the area at this time, and will be a feature worth monitoring
over the next day or so as it will likely be a feature that
returns precip chances to southern Colorado. Guidance is now
suggesting this low will lift slightly to the northeast through
Saturday, bringing a south to southeast mid level flow back to
southern Colorado. This returning mid level energy and focus
across the southwest mountains will support additional
accumulating snows for the eastern San Juans tonight into
Saturday. Confidence is high for these trends and even amounts
and with this in mind, did go ahead and extend the Winter Storm
Warning through Saturday. Did only go through midday Saturday,
as this is when confidence is highest, but it is possible that
this warning may need to be extended even further.

Even though we`re less than 24 hours out, confidence really
drops for expected precip chances for the southeast mountains
and portions of the plains on Saturday. Guidance really
struggling with resolving how the low to mid level flow will
respond, which will affect any upslope component and precip
chances. While some guidance was indicating returning
focus/support as far north as the Pikes Peak region, think that
is a less likely scenario for Saturday at this time. Where
confidence is increasing is across the far southern Sangres,
where additional accumulating snow is possible. If trends
continue with this idea, then additional winter headlines may be
needed for the Sangres as soon as Saturday afternoon. Can`t
completely rule out any precip spilling into the I-25 corridor
on Saturday, but have lower confidence with this occurring at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Similar lower confidence extends into Saturday evening, with
the similar precip potential across the southeast mountains and
adjacent plains. Once again, any higher confidence for
precip/snow Saturday night into Sunday will be across the far
southern Sangres. During this time, snow likely continues across
the eastern San Juans, but should see an overall diminishing
trend. Much of the weather into early next week will be tied to
this upper level low, which guidance is still suggesting will
meander across the region through much of the forecast period.
Periodic snow chances will be possible mainly over the southern
mountains into early next week, but at this time, the potential
for any additional significant amounts or impacts looks to be
low at this time. Warming does occur into early next week, with
above normal temperatures returning to southern Colorado. By the
middle part of next week, guidance suggesting this low will
finally open up and shift east across the region. As this does
so, will see precip chances increase once again over much of the
area during that time. Still some uncertainty as to how this
will unfold, along with exact details on precip chances and
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

KALS: Low MVFR clouds and generally southeast winds will continue
until this evening. Starting by about 08Z, conditions will be
favorable for fog formation, bringing things into the IFR range
until sunrise. Near the end of the period, low clouds will continue
as snow showers form over the nearby mountains.

KCOS: Breezy southwest winds and low clouds will continue across the
area this afternoon. Later this evening, winds will turn
northwesterly with clouds moving from IFR to MVFR. Gusty northwest
winds will accompany continued low MVFR clouds and snow showers
moving over the Pikes Peak Region near the end of this forecast
period.

KPUB: Low MVFR to IFR clouds will persist along with southeast winds
through this afternoon. This evening, winds will turn more westerly
and then northwesterly as MVFR clouds stick around. Tomorrow, winds
turn southeast again and clouds increase as snow showers form over
the nearby higher terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Saturday for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO


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