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000
FXUS65 KPUB 291428
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
728 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT THIS TIME DUE
TO WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LIFTING THE STRATUS. NO APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...COOLER WITH MOISTURE INCREASING...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE THICKENING ENOUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO START SPREADING INTO THE
AREA.  THIS WILL MAINLY JUST AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
NORTH AND EASTWARD.  BY MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE SHOULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS
AREA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR JUST
SNOW.  NOT GREAT ACCUMULATIONS BY MORNING BUT COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
NOTHING UP TO ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH THE
GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND JUST A TRACE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES....RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY FOR THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TIMING AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS AND TYPE OF HIGHLIGHT POTENTIALLY NEEDED IS NOW
IN QUESTION. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN
AZ THROUGH THE DAY FRI...PUSHING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. THE SW MTS SEEM TO BE THE FOCUS
AREA FOR SNOWFALL UNDER THE EXPECTED FLOW...WHILE SPARSE PCPN IS
IMPLIED FOR THE E PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE
E PLAINS LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING...AND THIS IS WHEN THE
PLAINS WILL FINALLY START FILLING IN AND SEEING SOME PCPN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WARM...AND UNTIL THE TRUE COLDER
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A RAIN SNOW
MIX FOR THE PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO MEXICO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SAT AS NW FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO EDGE IN...CUTTING THE
SNOW MACHINE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTS. DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING...AND ALLOW INCOMING SHIFT TO
REFINE TIMING OF THE HIGHLIGHT...AS WELL AS DECIDE WHAT TYPE OF
HIGHLIGHT IS APPROPRIATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL SHUT
OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 30S. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FORECAST MON THROUGH WED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

SO FAR CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR OVER THE FLIGHT AREA.  IT`S GETTING
CLOSE IN A FEW AREAS AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
FROM THE NORTH.  KMNH...THE ELBERT MOUNTAIN SENSOR...JUST THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS COUNTY LINE...IS DOWN TO
OVERCAST 3600 FEET. K1V6...THE FREMONT COUNTY AIRPORT...IS
REPORT 3500 BROKEN AT THIS HOUR AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THERE.
KTAD IS REPORTING 4500 BROKEN AND K4V1...WALSENBURG...IS REPORTING
3300 OVERCAST.  ALSO...SOME OF THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AREAS ARE
REPORTING CIGS IN THE 1800 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BEING REPORTED AT KCCU...COPPER MOUNTAIN...NORTH OF LEADVILLE.

COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTH TO ABOUT THE MONARCH PASS AREA...EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  ON
FRIDAY...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO CREEP
GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA.

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE AT TIMES WITH CIGS
BORDERING ON MVFR.  ALSO...COULD BE SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS IN
THE VICINITY AT TIMES...UP CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR KALS...A
LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  KALS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.  EXPECT KALS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR TODAY BUT
THEN GO DOWN TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ068-074-075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW