Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151718
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1018 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE WINDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENTLY...THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER AND MT
PCPN WAS DIMINISHING...WITH TEMPS AS OF 330 AM IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...TEENS ACROSS THE MTS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE SLV.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY TO THE EAST...ALLOWING A TRANSIENT RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS
COLORADO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG THE
CONTDVD THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDDAY...THEN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN ISOLATED SNOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL MTS. EXPECTED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER 40S FOR THE E PLAINS...30S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS THE MTS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

...ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM TRACKS...

DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY THOUGH WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT ON PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SNOW SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE CONTDVD. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION MAY HINDER
MIXING SOME...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT TROF MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE CA
COAST EARLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TOWARDS COLORADO BY THURSDAY.
STILL A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND STORM
TRACK...WITH 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN THE FARTHEST NORTH. ECMWF HAS
THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AS IT GLANCES BY THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ON THURSDAY. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE GFS SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS MORE
RAPIDLY INTO WESTERN CO ON WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW
SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST CO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND NAM KEEPS
THE BRUNT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS
BRINGS THE TROF ACROSS CEN NM SPREADING A BAND OF WAA SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS VS THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NM/TX. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST COLDER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR THIS SYSTEM
VS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK...IMPACT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LOOK
MOST FAVORED FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS
LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH PERIODS OF
OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE...THEN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS MORE NORTHERLY WHICH APPEARS TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GRIDS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT KICKS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED OR DECREASED FOR SOUTHEAST
CO.

ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS POISED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS EVEN MORE
VARIABILITY WITH THIS STORM TRACK WITH ECMWF DROPPING THE SYSTEM
INTO SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE SUN...WHILE 00Z GFS HAS IT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CO/UT SAT NIGHT AND INTO NM ON SUNDAY.
06Z GFS HOWEVER CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
OPEN WITH THE TROF MOVING ACROSS CO ON SUNDAY. ALL THAT CAN BE
SAID AT THIS POINT IS THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WILL COVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28



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