482
FXUS65 KPUB 091724
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mainly dry for today.

- Increasing chances of showers and storms on Thursday, with
  critical fire weather conditions possible across portions of
  south central Colorado.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
  expected for the later part of the week and through early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Quick update to the forecast grids for the upgrading of the
Fire Weather Watch on Thursday to a Red Flag Warning. Tricky
situation, with potential showers affecting the RH vs drier air
behind the wave, coupled with guidance indicating some decent
sustained winds in the aftn. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Current water vapor and upper air analysis indicates  modest northerly
flow aloft across the region, with upper level high pressure centered
across the Four Corners region. Water vapor imagery also is indicating
dry air in place across the region under the ridge, as short wave energy
is moving onshore across the West Coast at this time. GOES satellite
imagery is indicating generally clear skies across the region as of
1 am, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the southeast plains,
and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.

For today, hot, dry and subsident air under the ridge will keep the
area mainly dry, with the potential for a few cumulus buildups across
the higher terrain through the afternoon, as will as a rogue pop up storm
across the plains with convective temps being breached. Warm air aloft
(18 to 20C at H7) will yield highs in the 90s to lower 100s across the
plains, mainly in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain and into
the low 90s across the high mountain valleys. With the hot temperatures
and little convective cloud cover through the afternoon, we have issued
a Heat Advisory from 10am to 8pm for El Paso, Pueblo and eastern Fremont
counties. Current records for July 9th are 92F at ALS (2021 and 2003),
98F at COS (2022) and 103F at PUB (2022 and 2021).

For tonight and Thursday, models remain consistent with the upper ridge
being shunted south and east as the West Coast short wave energy translates
across the Intermountain West later tonight, and continues across the
Northern Rockies through the day on Thursday. Increasing moisture and
lift within the increasing westerly flow aloft will lead to increasing
chances of showers across the higher terrain along and west of the
Continental Divide later tonight. Breezy westerly flow will keep overnight
temperatures on the mild side areawide, and will allow for temperatures
to warm quickly once again Thursday morning, with highs only slightly
cooler than today. However, the passing Northern Rockies system will
send a cold front across eastern Colorado through the afternoon, with
increasing moisture along and behind the front, leading to chances of
showers and storms across the eastern mtns and plains Thursday afternoon
and evening, with the potential for strong to severe storms once again.
With the expected breezy westerly flow, we have left the current Fire
Weather Watch in place for Fire Weather Zones 220, 223 and 224.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the long term period, active weather
is expected each day for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow over the region will vary from westerly to northerly
during this period in response to a ridge of high pressure across
the southwestern US. While no major forcing is expected, this
pattern will allow for persistent orographic forcing, along with
brief periods of enhanced forcing along frontal surges. With some
forcing in place, and moisture still present, daily isolated and
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected
to remain along the higher terrain where forcing will be maximized.
Along with that, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out,
particularly across the plains, with frequent lightning, gusty
outflow winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most
likely hazards from any stronger storms. Beyond all of that, winds
are expected to remain breezy through early next week, with
increased cloud cover each afternoon and evening. Looking at
temperatures, the later part of the week and start of the weekend
will be the coolest and around and slightly below seasonal values
thanks to a couple of cold front passages. Then for the end of the
weekend and early part of next week, temperatures are expected to
rebound, with values warming to near and slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Very isolated high-based convection over mt peaks will produce gusty
outflow to 40 kts, but are not expected to affect terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220-223-
224.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE