Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 110531
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENTLY...WARM AND GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS.  WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH HAVE HELP US WARM UP.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MID ALONG THE LEE SLOPES WEST OF I-25 WITH 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHILE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DROP INTO THE 20S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.  THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA BY MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  LACK OF MIXING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ONLY ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WITH DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY
MORNING. FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO
(ALONG OR EAST OF I25) FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE RETREATING
EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY SAT MORNING AS WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE COLD AIR
MASS...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. MAX TEMPS FRI WILL COOL 5-10F MOST
LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...WITH BIGGEST DROP NEAR THE KS
BORDER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 700 TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE
3-6C RANGE ON SAT...AND WITH WLY FLOW
STRENGTHENING...MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND I25 CORRIDOR SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER WILL BE
SLOWEST TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR LA JUNTA...WHICH MAY
KEEP SURFACE WINDS EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.

RIDGE RETREATS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS NEW UPPER ENERGY DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW -SHSN TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY SUN AS WAVE
MOVES BY...THOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE MOST
LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS EASTWARD NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY
WARM/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT COS...PUB
AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW


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