Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221151
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Another Storm to bring heavy wind driven snow to the Continental
Divide...

The upper low over OK/TX will pull away to the east with ridging
expected over the region this afternoon.  This will bring a brief
reprieve to the snowfall across the mountains...and warmer
temperatures to most of the region.  Will maintain some isolated
pops across the Continental Divide where some lingering moisture and
orographics will be present. Winds will be breezy over and near the
mountains through this afternoon.

The next storm system moves into the western U.S. with 150+ kt upper
jet translating into western CO towards 12z Mon.  This will send
another round of deep moisture and heavy snow into the Continental
Divide this evening...spreading over into the Sangre De Cristo
mountains towards morning.  Winds at mountain top level will
approach 50 kts or better late tonight...which will produce areas of
blowing and drifting snow. Southwesterly flow will provide the best
orographics across the eastern San Juan mountains tonight where the
heaviest snow will fall...and this is expected to continue into the
medium range. Given the likelihood for a high impact event for
the Continental Divide...have upgraded winter storm watches to
warnings...and will include lower interior valleys and the crest
of the Sangres into winter weather advisories for tonight. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

...Potential for significant new snowfall for the mountains through
Monday night...

Monday through Wednesday...Models are being fairly consistent on
bringing an upper low pressure system onshore across the Pacific NW
Monday morning, with a longwave trough extending back across the
West Coast down into CA. This system sweeps across the Pacific NW
and Great Basin on Mon, then the Rockies on Tue and reaching
the Dakotas and NE late Tue.

Moist southwest flow ahead of the system will draw abundant moisture
up into CO, while the placement of the upper jet will provide strong
gusty sw winds aloft and significant new snowfall for the mts
through Monday night. Therefore, a number of Winter Storm Warnings
and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Meanwhile, the
southwest flow will produce a warm and mild day for the e plains
Mon, with max temps in the 30s and 40s for the high valleys, and 50s
to around 60F for the plains. As the upper low passes across WY and
NE Mon night, it will push a cold front south across eastern CO Tue
morning and introduce pcpn chances back to the e plains. Models
differ on frontal passage timing, with the NAM quicker as it brings
the cold front across the Palmer DVD around 12z Tue morning. The GFS
drops the front south of the Palmer between 18z-21z, so the max temp
forecast for Tue is tricky. Max temp forecast grids for Tue will
show 20s and 30s for the high valleys, and mid 30s to mid 40s for
the plains. By Wed the system will be exiting the area, with showers
lingering the longest over the central mts under lighter northwest
flow aloft. Wed is expected to be colder, with max temps in the 20s
and 30s for all areas.

Thursday through Saturday...Light north to northwest flow aloft with
a few embedded disturbances will keep a few showers over the central
mts for Thu, then dry and continued cool into the weekend. Look for
max temps in the 20s and 30s for all areas Thu and Fri, then
slightly warmer on Sat with upper 20s to upper 30s for the high
valleys, and 40s for the e plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 450 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Patchy IFR stratus will still be possible across portions of the San
Luis Valley this morning...though it looks more likely that KALS
will stay VFR. Otherwise...expect high cloudiness to spread over
the region today ahead of the next system. KCOS will see window of
breezy north winds this morning in the 10-25 kt range...while
winds at KPUB and KALS remain light. Should see light diurnally
driven south to southeast winds for all 3 terminals by late
afternoon. IFR to LIFR vis/cigs will spread back into the
Continental Divide this evening as another round of +SN BLSN moves
in. Could see a few snow showers spread across the San Luis Valley
affecting KALS after 04z and continue through early Monday
morning. These could bring brief MVFR to IFR conditions to the
terminal. KCOS and KPUB will remain VFR. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Tuesday for COZ073-075.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Tuesday for COZ059-061-064-067.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ058-060-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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