Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 102257
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

...More High Winds and Heavy Mountain Snows...

Southern Colorado remains on the storm track.  Afternoon satellite
loops show yet another moist Pacific storm system head across the
Sierra and the Great Basin toward Colorado.  It will move in here
tonight, bringing another ramp up in wind and snow along the
Continental Divide and another round of high winds to the eastern
slopes of the mountains and the adjacent plains.

After a brief lull lasting into early evening, we should see
snowfall begin to ramp up again overnight, with the main period of
heavy, blowing snow during the day on Wednesday.  In fact, the ramp
up in wind and snow will likely hold off over the southwest
mountains until after daylight Wednesday.  The central mountains
should get started later tonight.

For the eastern slopes and plains, another period of high winds is
in store.  Another Pacific jet stream will track over the area
tonight and Wednesday.  Soundings indicate an inversion will set up
near mountain top level later this evening and overnight...with at
least a brief period of reverse shear indicated in thermodynamic
profiles.  This wind profile will help set up a mountain wave along
the lee of the mountains that will force strong winds aloft down to
the surface along and west of the I-25 corridor overnight.  The
setup is similar to Monday but not exactly the same.  The inversion
looks pretty similar but the reverse shear does not look as good.
This will have implications on how the winds play out tonight.  In
general, this event doesn`t look as widespread or nearly as long-
lived as the Monday event.  Additionally, the overall peak gust
potential doesn`t look as great.  So, while this event has the
potential to be bad enough, it will likely not have the same impact
as on Monday.

The mountain wave will break down pretty early Wednesday.  The
warning that is in effect for the eastern slopes and I-25 corridor
until noon may be able to come down early.  However, it will continue
windy and spread east across the plains through the day due to deep
mixing from aloft.  So, while no highlights later in the day, still
windy...with gusts to 50 or even 60 mph possible at times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

Active meteorological pattern/period during the longer term with
several issues to be concerned about, including but not limited to
pops, snow amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation
potential(especially over far southeastern sections), gusty winds
at times and temperatures.

Recent longer term computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings suggest that snow and blowing snow will be ongoing
over portions of the Continental Divide Wednesday night which
matches well with WFO Pueblos recently issued Winter Storm
Warning. Additional rounds of snow and blowing snow over portions
of the central mountains are then anticipated from later Thursday
into Thursday night. Elsewhere across the forecast district from
Wednesday night into Thursday night expect drier conditions in
combination with gusty winds at times.

Latest computer simulations indicate that a relatively slow
moving upper closed low located just southwest of San Diego at 00Z
Saturday which moves to south of Tucson, Arizona by 00Z Sunday and
then into northeastern New Mexico by 03Z Monday before shifting
into western Kansas by later Monday.

Meteorological focus is the amount of impact that this potential
longer duration storm system will provide to the forecast
district. At this time, it appears that the most widespread
precipitation potential with this system should be noted from
Friday night into Monday morning with beneficial precipiation
anticipated(including the potential for heavy snow at
times...primarily over southern and eastern sections) as well as
mixed precipitation potential(including freezing drizzle/ice-
pellets/freezing rain...etc.) over portions of the far
southeastern Colorado plains. As always, WFO Pueblo will closely
monitor the track and strength of this potential incoming system
and issue winter weather highlights as warranted.

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast district
during the longer term should be noted Wednesday night, Thursday
night into Friday and then again from Sunday night into next
Tuesday.

Finally, warmest conditions during the longer term should be noted
from Wednesday night into Thursday with coolest readings
anticipated from Friday into at least the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 355 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

ALS...

VFR conditions will be present throughout the forecast period, but
the main concern is the wind.  Gusty winds will be present and there
will be LLWS around 09Z lasting through 17Z as the max WS magnitude
peaks around 35 KTS.

COS...

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period.  Strong and somewhat
variable winds will be the biggest factor, especially through 07Z.
After around 07Z, winds will be predominantly from the west with
very strong gusts.  LLWS is a factor around 07Z through 14Z.

PUB...

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period. Moderate winds will
be changing frequently for the beginning of the forecast period
becoming westerly after 09Z.  Around 09Z is when the gusts become a
factor.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MST
Wednesday night for COZ058>061.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MST Wednesday
for COZ072>075-078>088.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight MST
Wednesday night for COZ066-068.

&&

$$



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