Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131729
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1029 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 442 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Low stratus has moved into portions of the southeast plains, with
KPUB reporting low VSBY and have been seeing some light flurries in
the area as well.  The HRRR is showing the low stratus dissipating
thru the morning hours but is showing it staying around the KPUB
area the longest and finally has it dissipating between 18 and 19Z.
Forecast soundings off the NAM show the stratus dissipating early
this morning, but the RAP has it staying around until between 16 and
17Z.

Northwest flow aloft over the area is expected and tonight.  The NAM
shows the potential for a few light snow showers over portions of
the central CO mtns today, but if this occurs it shouldn`t amount to
much of anything.  The rest of the area will be dry today and
tonight.  Temp forecast for today over the southeast plains is a
little challenging and think that leaning toward the cooler model
guidance values is the way to go.  It looks like highs will range
from the mid 40s over the far southeast plains to the upper
40s/around 50 along the I-25 corridor.  The Upper Arkansas Valley
should see highs in the mid and upper 40s, and the San Luis Valley
should see lower to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 442 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Longer term concerns will be the potential for unsettled
meteorological conditions over eastern sections of the forecast
district from Monday into Monday night and then over the majority
of the CWA from Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Recent longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that warmer and tranquil meteorological
conditions should be noted over the majority of the forecast
district from Sunday into Sunday evening as dry northwesterly
upper flow in combination with eastern Colorado lee-side surface
troughing develops over southern Colorado.

Unsettled and colder conditions then return to eastern sections
of the forecast district from Monday into Monday night as moist
north-northeasterly surface surge driven by 1052 MB surface
high(located over South Dakota) moves into northeastern New Mexico
by sunrise Monday. In addition, an upper disturbance moves across
eastern sections of the forecast district into Monday night. The
combination of these features will allow colder temperatures as
well as primarily light snow to develop over many eastern
locations from Monday into Monday night. At this time, it appears
the locations that have the highest potential on experiencing
a few inches of accumulating snow with this event will be over
portions of EL Paso and Teller counties.

A brief respite is then expected over the forecast district
Tuesday before closed upper low initially located over
east-central Nevada at 12Z Wednesday shifts across southern
Colorado from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening before
moving into western Oklahoma by 18Z Thursday, bringing another
round of unsettled conditions over the forecast district from
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

More tranquil and warmer conditions should then return to
southern Colorado from Thursday into Friday as transitory upper
ridging moves across the forecast district in combination with
eastern Colorado lee-side troughing.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be noted from Thursday night into next Friday, with warmest
temperatures anticipated Thursday and Friday, while coolest
temperatures should be experienced from Monday into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1022 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; kpub, kals and kcos. light diurnally driven wind flow
is anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH


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