Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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120
FXUS65 KPUB 170511
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1011 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper ridge across Colorado today, leading to extremely warm
temperatures areawide, with readings near/just short of record maxes
at Pueblo and Colorado Springs as of 2130z. Expect generally clear
and mild conditions overnight, as lee surface trough deepens on
the plains and weak downslope gradients develop along/east of the
mountains. On Friday, upper wave moving across the Nrn Plains will
push a very weak cold front south through eastern Colorado early
in the day, though impact looks to be limited to just some slight
cooling of max temps, as mid level heights/temps only fall a minor
amount. A few showers may reach the Continental Divide Fri
afternoon as moisture increases ahead of West Coast upper low,
though precip looks to be spotty and light during the daytime
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

Friday Night and Saturday...A slight change to the positioning of
the incoming system, as compared to what models have been indicating
the past few days. The low pressure system is now expected to move
onshore across central CA Fri evening, then dip to the southeast
across southern NV and CA through Sat. This track will still produce
deep south to southwest flow ahead of the system, drawing moisture
up into Colorado. This will provide isolated to low-end scattered
pops for the higher terrain, with the best chances for snow
persisting along the ContDvd. Look for temps in 40s and 50s for the
high valleys, and 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Though the upper trough continues to extend all
the way south into Mexico, latest EC and GFS model runs now show the
upper closed low to be further north, tracking east across northern
New Mexico Sunday into Monday. The best window for pcpn across the
forecast area will occur Sunday aftn and eve. The best chance for
snow will be across the higher elevations, and the best shot for
some rain will occur across the far eastern plains near the Kansas
border. Pcpn chances then taper off through the day Monday as the
system continues sliding to the east into Texas. Not a lot of
cooling associated with this system due to the southern track, so
max temps are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s for the high
valleys, and 60s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...West to southwest flow aloft settles back in
across the region. There will be an isolated chance of some showers
for mainly the central mts, but expect dry conditions elsewhere with
very mild to warm temps. Max temps both days are forecast to climb
into the 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s
for the eastern plains.

Thursday...Another Pacific low pressure system is lining up to
affect the state on Thu. Isolated pcpn along the ContDvd late Wed
night increases and spreads east through Thu for all areas. Look for
about a 10 deg drop in temps as compared to Wed. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 944 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be primarily diurnally
driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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