Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261044
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PCPN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.  UPR LOW OVR NRN NV THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR CENTRAL UT BY 12Z
WED.  THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WL ALLOW MSTR TO
CONTINUE STREAMING ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO...TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...WITH AROUND 0.8 INCH OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY LATE MORNING
SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVR THE SRN
MTNS...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD.  AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE
HIGH RES FORECAST MODELS SHOWING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SRN BORDER AREA OF THE SERN
PLAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE TSTMS THEN MOVE AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA.  ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH AROUND NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED OVR THE FAR
SERN PLAINS.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
ACRS ERN CO.  THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES AND SHOULD KEEP
PCPN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS
THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY A LITTLE LONGER.

HEAVY RAIN WL BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS.  WL DELAY THE START
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WL LEAVE THE END
TIME OF 09Z AS IT IS.  CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO ...MAINLY FROM EL PASO COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD TO KIOWA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT HAIL AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...COOL AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...MAIN THEME HAS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
SEE POPS CRANKING UP ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING UVV AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF SAID SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OFF PARENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP POPS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHT LULL EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS...LEADING TO
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTING. SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SCATTERED POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT COOLING WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ON FRIDAY. COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
COOL FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS IN THE
OFFING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS DRIER BUT BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB THIS MORNING WL PROBABLY CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z OR 16Z...WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING VFR.  KALS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.  THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL
DEVELOP...AND BY 20Z KALS MAY SEE VCTS THRU ABOUT 03Z.  KPUB AND
KCOS PROBABLY WL NOT SEE VCTS UNTIL ABOUT 22Z.  KPUB AND KCOS COULD
SEE THE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z-08Z.  TSTMS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR COZ066>068-072>089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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