Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 300206
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
806 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION.  LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40...WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIXING FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

BASED ON RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PV ANALYSIS...WILL ADJUST EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING INSTEAD OF
MIDNIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AT
21Z THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY 03Z SATURDAY
AND THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  IF SYSTEM DEPARTS FASTER THEN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE ADJUSTED TO
END EVEN EARLIER.

OVERALL...ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...HAVE DEPICTED AREAS OF FOG OVER MANY LOCATIONS FROM
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AND COOL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
THEN DEVELOPING OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WESTERN LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY 00Z SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...HAVE DEPICTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY UNDER 3 INCHES
DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME.

FINALLY...WELL BELOW SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD RUN AROUND
10F HIGHER THAN MAXIMUM VALUES NOTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MANY
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY AND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY,
PASSING OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES OVER COLORADO. QG FORCING WEAKENS WITH THIS
STORM AND THE BEST QG LIST STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WPC
AND SUPERBLEND QPF WHICH HAVE AROUND ONE THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ON THE PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE WHICH
HIT THE REGION TODAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER QPF NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL STICK TO THE ROADS GIVEN THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION RATES.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST, AND ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT, RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND STRONG EARLY MAY SUNSHINE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS. CONVECTION WILL NOT BE EVERY ORGANIZED AND ANTICIPATE
LIGHT QPF. EC CONTINUES TO HAVE A COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SOLUTION IS UNUSUAL AND STILL DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION. CURRENT
EC SOLUTION KEEPS MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA.
ANTICIPATE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT QPF.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO START BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, AND GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASES IN POPS,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS...INITIALLY DUE TO SNOW AND THEN FOG...ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO BY
03Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SUNDAY.  SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS
COLORADO.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77


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