Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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953
FXUS65 KPUB 201717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Currently...Monsoon moisture continues to stream up across the 4
Corners and into Colorado, and a few showers lingered once again
along the CONTDVD and in Chaffee County this morning. Temps have
remained mild, with most locations in the 60s to around 70 F as of
330 am. Mountain areas have dipped into the 40s this morning.

Today and Tonight...Very similar look to the weather pattern through
the short term, with an upper ridge of high pressure remaining over
the central US. With Colorado being on the western side of the
ridge, the stream of monsoon moisture into the western half of the
state will continue. Convection is expected to fire up once again by
midday over the higher terrain, then slowly move off across the
adjacent plains through the aftn. Thunderstorms will be scattered to
likely over the mts, and isolated elsewhere. It looks like there is
enough dynamics in the upper levels to support isolated convection
even across the far eastern plains later this evening. Another hot
day is forecast, with max temps in the 90s to around 100 F for the
plains, and 80s to around 90 F for the high valleys. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Upper high pressure area centered over the southern/central plains
will flatten out and migrate westward this weekend into early next
week.  Meanwhile...southwesterly flow aloft will keep the modest
draw of monsoon moisture across Colorado through the end of the work
week with temperatures remaining above normal.  Both GFS and NAM
suggest thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase
across the plains for Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy
rainfall...small hail...and gusty outflow winds will be the primary
threats...as CAPE and shear remain limited.

Upper trof will move across the northern U.S Rockies Friday night
sending a cold front through the southeast CO plains Saturday
morning. Initially this surge doesn`t look as cool or as moist
immediately behind the front as runs from 24 hours ago...but
should at least bring temperatures down a few degrees for
Saturday. CAPE may end up being too limited for severe
thunderstorm potential on Saturday...but its too soon to be sure
at this point. A little better moisture return in southeast
upslope flow occurs for Sunday and Monday...and with shortwaves
evident in westerly flow aloft. These days could see an upswing in
thunderstorm strength across the southeast mountains and plains
bringing a marginal potential for severe weather...particularly
north of highway 50 where shear will be strongest.

By the middle of next week...upper high center becomes established
over the southwest U.S. which brings drier into the region and
shunts the monsoon plume tap to the south. There will still be
enough moisture for some isolated thunderstorms over the
mountains...but coverage should decrease quite a bit as
temperatures heat up once again. So far...winds look to stay on
the weak side which should limit fire weather concerns in spite of
the drying trend. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

There could be thunderstorms in the vcnty of the terminal
forecast sites this afternoon and evening, with KCOS and KALS
having the best chance of this occurring. Gusty outflow winds and
locally heavy rain wl be possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected at the forecast sites.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28



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