Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240313
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER LOWS A TAD AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY WARM...ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRRAIN...AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AND MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 509 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPIRE WSW FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

AN UPR LOW OVR CA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...
MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z TUE...AND THEN WEAKENING AND
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU NM ON TUE.

SNOW HAS CONTINUED FALLING OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
AND IT FAIRLY SPOTTY AND WL CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY AT 3 PM.

OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS THE SNOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE
SPOTTY...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SRN AREAS NR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  WL
ALLOW THAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM.

THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW PCPN CHANCE DECREASING RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS OVR MOST OF THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS.  THE NAM KEEPS
WIDESPREAD SNOW OVR THE ERN SAN JUANS EARLY IN THE EVENING. WEB CAMS
SHOULD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL CURRENTLY AT LXV AND MONARCH
PASS...SO WL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES AT 3
PM...ALONG WITH CANCELING WARNINGS FOR ZONES 64 AND 65...BUT WL
LEAVE WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ZONES 66 AND 67.  WL LEAVE
THE WARNING FOR THE ERN SAN JUANS (ZONE 68) IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z.
ERN SAN JUANS COULD GET ANOTHER FEW INCHES IN THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF.

BY 09Z THE NAM SHOWS DRY WX OVR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MIDMORNING TUE. THE NAM THEN SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN AGAIN OVR THE SW MTNS AS THE UPR LOW
MOVES INTO NM. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING OVR THE SW
MTNS AND THE SANGRES THRU THE NIGHT AND THRU TUE.  THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT DOES NOT SPREAD THE PCPN ON TUE QUITE AS FAR
NORTH.  HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS OVR THE SANGRES AND PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH HIGHER POPS OVR THE
SW MTNS DURING THIS SAME TIME-FRAME...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP AGAIN AS LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON TUE...BUT THE SNOW COVER IN MANY LOCATIONS WL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AND SO WL STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

...ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT LINGERING
SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE A FEW SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SNOW SOME AREAS SEE. SNOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTERLY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...WHILE
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS WITH THE NAM
WHICH KEEPS LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH
WOULD LIMIT UPSLOPE EFFECTS AND SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD WITH 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 20S ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WEAK ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY KEEP
LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SPREAD IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE. MODELS KEEP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
30S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  KALS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING HOURS UNLESS SOME SHOWERS
ARE IN THE VCNTY WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.  THEN
LATE TONIGHT KALS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP WITH IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS INTO MIDMORNING TUE...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  KCOS MAY STILL HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE VCNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS...THEN BY LATE EVENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR AS SFC WINDS BECOME NW TO N.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



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