Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK INDICATES THAT
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IMPACTING MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING.  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EXPERIENCING VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH ALL OF THE CWFA NOTING DRY
CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...FORECAST DISTRICT GENERALLY GRACED BY LOW-
GRADE GRADIENT WINDS AND ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER
TEMPERATURES WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE ENCROACHING THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IDEA OF EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LATER
THIS MORNING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND THEN OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ISOLATED TO LOW-GRADE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS ALWAYS...WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS...PRIMARILY
THE WEST FORK AND PAPOOSE BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER PRIMARILY OLD NORTHERN MEXICO AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ON WEDNESDAY AND UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE MTN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.  SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD END BY LATE NIGHT.  THE UPR RIDGE WL
BE CENTERED OVR CO ON THU AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS.

THU NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS NM. ON
FRI THERE ARE SOME MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANTS.  THE ECMWF LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS SERN CO...WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE TRACK WL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WL BE OVR THE SRN MTNS AND SERN PLAINS.  AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPR TROF WL LIE FROM WRN WY TO CENTRAL CA...AND SOME MSTR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL BRING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE
CONTDVD ON FRI.

THAT UPR TROF WL THEN MOVE OVR CO ON SAT...SENDING A FRONT THRU THE
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CAN MAINLY BE EXPECTED ACRS
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  HIGH TEMPS SAT WL BE COOLER BUT SHOULD
BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOR SUN AN UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE AREA AS THE UPR TROF MOVES WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE MTNS
AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR ISOLD TO SCT PCPN.

FOR MON THE ECMWF HAS AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE ROCKIES...AND AN UPR TROF
SITTING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND OVR THE FORECAST AREAS
MAINLY ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS.  ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS
HAS AN UPR LOW OVR NWRN AZ THAT BRINGS AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL BE NOTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN
ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.  FOR THE  KALS
TAF SITE...PROJECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



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