Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171742
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION ALSO UPDATED...SEE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
THIS MORNING...WITH STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO TX AND OK. STILL A FEW -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE SRN
SANGRES AS OF 10Z...THOUGH LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THREAT
OF TSRA HAS JUST ABOUT ENDED. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR
-SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING TO BOTH ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT PRECIP AND TO COVER THE CHANCES OF AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...UPWARD MOTION DIMINISHES AS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STEERING CURRENTS
DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE TO PUSH STORMS ON TO THE
PLAINS...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE MOST AREAS WITH MOIST GROUND AND
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...AND COOL GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKING FAIRLY
REASONABLY FOR A CHANGE. TONIGHT...TSRA SHOULD END EARLY WITH LACK
OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT AND CONTINUED DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

...HOT WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND...

HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE RESPITE FROM THE HEAT...CAUSE
ALL SIGNS ARE THAT THE LATTER PART OF JULY WILL BE ON THE
HOT SIDE. HOPEFULLY ALL THE RECENT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND THAT MAY PUT A LID ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO HOT AS IT TYPICALLY
HAS BEEN AS OF LATE...SHOWING A STRING OF 100 DEGREE DAYS AT KPUB
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ECMWF GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...WITH MID-UPPER 90S FOR THE SAME PERIOD...AND THAT WAS
USED AS A PREFERENCE FOR THE EXTENDED MAX TEMPS. HOTTEST DAYS WILL
LIKELY BE TUE-THU...WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE BENCHMARK OF
600 DM CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS.

EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT DOWNWARDS IN CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND SAT WILL STILL SEE SCT TS DEVELOPING FOR THE
AFTERNOON-EV PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT AS THE HIGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE DESERT SW...THE
SUN-MON PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL...WITH ONLY ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER THE MTS EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RETURN OF BETTER
MOISTURE AFTER TUESDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT WE HAVE
SEEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JULY. KPUB IS ALREADY ABOVE AVERAGE
IN PRECIP FOR THE MONTH...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE THE POPS LOOK TO GO
DOWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2014

MUCH DRIER NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL DECENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF I-25 BUT ONLY VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE. KALS HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS TODAY. KCOS MAY GET IN ON SOME OF THE
ACTION...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE SITE.
KPUB SHOULD MISS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN STORMS. PRIMARY WINDOW FOR STORMS TODAY
WILL BE 18Z-03Z.  OUTSIDE OF STORMS...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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