Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231304
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

The main concern in the short term still lies with the rather
potent storm system that will affect our region today. This system
will bring a soaking rainfall and even a few thunderstorms with
it. However, it appears that the more unstable conditions will
remain south of our region, as should the main severe threat.
Still, locally heavy rains will be possible, especially this
afternoon.

The primary 500 mb shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it
lifts northeast from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley today. Surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks
northeast across Missouri into the Great Lakes region. This will
drag a warm front north across the forecast region this afternoon.
Most of the heaviest rain will fall along and north of this
frontal boundary. The forecast area will be in the warm sector by
evening, so the precipitation will likely become more scattered in
nature. Will leave pops at 100 percent for today...then taper off
this evening. In addition, a period of strong gradient winds is
likely later tonight as we get more into the warm sector.

Looking ahead to the next work week, cooler air will gradually
return to our region in the wake of a cold frontal passage later
tonight. Precipitation will end with the passage of the front.
Conditions should remain dry through Tuesday as chilly high
pressure build in from the nw.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

Models are still at odds whether a weak cold frontal passage
Wednesday into Wednesday night will produce precip.  ECMWF now keeps
us dry, while GFS produces some light QPF, opposite of yesterday`s
solutions.  The overall trend is drier, and only kept some slight
chance pops for light rain for our northern two thirds of counties
on Wednesday.  A gradual cool down is expected behind the front into
Friday.  High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will shift winds
back to the south on Friday into Saturday, and temperatures will
moderate a little.  Have low confidence with the weekend forecast as
models timing is out of whack.  ECMWF tries to bring in some light
precip Friday night, while GFS holds off until at least late
Saturday.  Kept forecast dry for now and will see what the next few
runs produce.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

As low pressure moves ne toward the region, increasing moisture and
instability will lead to lowering cigs and vsbys. Cigs will remain
MVFR through 15Z, before dropping to IFR/Low IFR later this
morning with the onset of steady widespread moderate rainfall. Some
rebound of cigs may occur after sunset as a warm front passes
north of the region. Vsbys are expected to be IFR in the heavier
precip. Serly winds will shift to the south by around 00-03z and
increase with gusts up to around 25 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM






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