Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 171723
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

The 08Z surface chart shows 1043 mb of high pressure centering
across eastern OK/extending into southwest MO. The models grab
this high and build it southeastward across the lower Mississippi
river valley over the course of the short term forecast period.

Currently, satellite shows a slug of moisture in association with
the upper trof axis slinging across the FA. It was producing
flurries and this may continue during these pre dawn hours, but
should effectively end by mid morning as the trof axis shifts to
the east and we come more and more under the influence of the
building this way surface high aforementioned. With the high will
come increasing sunshine, and this should assist ice and snow
melt, even though air temps will remain below freezing for another
day. Clear skies tonight mean one more night of single digit cold
is possible, but then we start to warm up as the high shifts ever
eastward and upper heights begin to build as well. We`ll finally
top the freezing mark on Thursday, and we`ll see the 40s again
by Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Continued good overall model agreement maintains higher than average
forecast confidence through the long term. The main concern is the
potential for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late in the
weekend.

A moderating trend will carry over into the weekend as southerly
flow strengthens between high pressure over the Southeast and
developing low pressure in the lee of the Rockies. In the upper
levels, a relatively flat flow pattern will transition to strong
southwesterly over the weekend in response to an approaching storm
system over the Plains. High temperatures should top the 50 degree
mark both weekend days. Temperatures may even approach 60 by Sunday.

With an increase in low level moisture amidst a large scale warm
advection pattern, low clouds should be plentiful over the weekend.
Substantial rain is not expected until late Sunday and Sunday night,
but forecast soundings suggest the potential for some very light
rain or even drizzle by Saturday night. Rain chances peak Sunday
night as large scale forcing for lift and substantial moisture
return accompany the approach and passage of low pressure and its
associated cold front. QPF is not forecast to be all that high--
ranging from one half to three quarters of an inch. While this would
not normally cause water issues, it will not take much given the
saturated soil conditions anticipated from the late week snow melt.

The potential for thunderstorms Sunday night will need to be closely
monitored in the coming days given the dynamic nature of the system
and forecast of strong deep-layer shear. Timing of the main line of
activity has been pushed back by about 3 hours, which delays the
event more into the nighttime hours when instability is normally
less. However, as we`ve seen before, these QLCS type events don`t
require that much instability. So for now, we`ll maintain a slight
chance mention of thunder across southeast Missouri Sunday evening.
It is also not clear as to how much instability will remain further
east, but models suggest it should diminish heading later into the
nighttime hours Sunday.

The precipitation should taper off from west to east across most of
the area late Sunday night, but a few showers could linger into
Monday morning over eastern sections. Thankfully, the air mass that
follows will not be nearly as cold as what we`ve had of late. In
fact, guidance suggests temperatures may remain above normal early
next week even in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions this afternoon through midday Thursday. Light west
winds will back to the south/southwest through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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