Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 262351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AN UPSTREAM H5 TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND THEN PULL/PUSH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST
OF OUR CWA IN AN ENHANCED RISK AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE REMAINDER OF OUR ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. THE PRIMARY THREATS
SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING... SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF OUR BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BRINGING
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE RECENT PROLONGED HEAT WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ESSENTIALLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL FLOW. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
TABLES SUGGEST THAT 1+ SD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
GOING TO BE IN THE AREA FROM 00Z THURSDAY TO ABOUT 00Z FRIDAY. THIS
IS ALL AHEAD OF A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH THAT IN
MIND KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THAT TIME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT ANYTHING EXACTLY AND KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING EACH PERIOD. DID ATTEMPT TO REMOVE WHERE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KEVV AND KOWB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY AS MIXING LENDS TO ELEVATING CLOUD
BASES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>087.

MO...NONE.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014-
     018>020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...RJP


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