Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 101926

226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Spectacular fall weather will continue through the weekend as high
pressure prevails. The high will pass through the area tonight.
With clear skies and calm winds, excellent radiational cooling
should allow temperatures to plunge this evening. Lows by daybreak
Sunday will average in the mid 40s, though some lower 40s are
certainly possible, especially in the valley regions of southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. A few degrees cooler and frost
would be a concern, but we think that should not be the case at
least for tonight.

As the high shifts east of the region, a return to southerly low
level flow will result in a substantial warming trend Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm well into the
70s, with readings above the 80 degree mark across much of the
area on Monday. Monday should be quite breezy given the enhanced
pressure gradient in the vicinity of a passing cold front. Due to
limited moisture, the main impact from this feature appears to be
an increase in clouds. However, a few sprinkles or light showers
cannot be completely ruled out by afternoon, especially along and
southeast of the Ohio River. A clearing sky and cooler temperatures
will take hold Monday night as the cold front sweeps east of the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

Fairly high confidence in a dry and eventually cooler extended
forecast. The 12Z GFS and GEM, and the 00Z ECMWF are in very good
agreement in the overall scenario through next Saturday.

A ridge west/trough east pattern will become more amplified through
the week and into next weekend. A couple of impulses in the
strengthening northwest flow aloft will bring mostly minor
windshifts through the region. However, a stronger cold front should
move through the area Thursday night or Friday. Behind it a cool
Canadian surface high will overspread the entire region, leading to
a cool down for next weekend.

The only fly in the ointment is the recently arrived 12Z ECMWF. It
is not quite as amplified with the flow with the Thursday night
system/cold front, and holds the front over our region and generates
some decent QPF with it late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Given that this is the first sign of noteworthy precipitation with
this system, will discount it for now. As for temperatures,
conditions will be near normal Tuesday through Thursday before
dropping below normal for Friday and especially Saturday.


Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

VFR conditions will be predominant through the 24 hour forecast
period. A few cumulus are expected this afternoon at KEVV and KOWB.
North winds will subside later this afternoon and become calm
tonight as the core of high pressure moves through. Patchy late
night fog cannot be ruled out, especially in fog-prone areas. Winds
will pick up from a southerly direction on Sunday as high pressure
begins to shift east of the area.




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