Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 212009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL SET THHE
STAGE FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. HOWEVER...BRIGHT SUNSHINE...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT...WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THINGS MAINLY RAINFREE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MED RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ARE NOT BEING CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE
PROGRESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE SWRN CONUS...THEN IT WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EWD AND DAMP OUT. SEVERAL SHRTWV IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROF AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE. MEANWHILE...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SERN CONUS.

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE INITIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT. THUS...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPRESS VIGOROUS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE AND MOVE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND DURING THE DAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
SCARCE. THE JET INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...
PROVIDING CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS (MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER) AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS PRETTY WET FOR AT LEAST
THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR REGION. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
STRONG SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO HAVE LIKELY POPS IN AT LEAST
WRN PARTS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA...SO BEING THAT TIME INTERVAL NOW
IS IN THE DAY 4/DAY 5 PERIOD...WE DECIDED TO ALLOW UP TO A 60% PCPN
POP...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AROUND.

THE MODEL INITIALIZATION BLEND SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN POPS
STARTING MON NIGHT AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
RETURNS BACK TO A MORE SWRLY FETCH. 40-50% POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE
WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV COMING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS
MIDWEEK...WITH A FURTHER TAPERING OF POPS BY THU (DAY 7).

TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE...BUT NOT OUT OF
CONTROL. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 60S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE CALL ON HOW FAST CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
LOW END MVFR TO VFR. ENHANCED IR SHOWED BREAKS UP INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI MOVING SOUTH. MODEL RH AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST BASES
LIFTING GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH NW/N WINDS THE RULE GENERALLY UP TO 10 KTS. BELIEVE
THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THE RULE TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB


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