Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271714

1214 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

High pressure will shift east to the East Coast during the next
couple of days. This will allow winds to become more southerly and
temperatures to warm back to seasonal levels by Friday. Low
pressure will form out over the Plains during the next 48 hours
and move east into nrn IL by Saturday. However, most the mid/upper
level energy with this system will stay to our north. Cannot rule
out a a stray shower...esp n/w locations but most of the time
should stay rainfree. Depending of the amount of sunshine
received, some locations may touch 90 for highs on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

The medium range numerical forecast models are beginning to show
variation in the placement, strength, and placement of the middle
closed low (south of the upper ridge over the WFO PAH forecast
area). The gradual weakening of the ridge with time (it is
approaching the end of its influence over the local area) and the
early model/NHC projections of Erika toward FL/Southeast Atlantic
coast are starting to play havoc with the placement of the upper
low originally moving up from Texas into the Lower Mississippi

The 00z Thursday GFS appears to have made the most aggressive
northwestward shift with the upper low, respective of its forecast
track of Erika toward GA/SC coastal areas. The newly arrived 00z
Thursday ECMWF a little more conservative in its movement of the
upper low, keeping it further southeast from the WFO PAH forecast
area, as well as shifting Erika a little more north and east along
the Atlantic Coast.

Given both the variability in timing/location of the track of Erika
and the progression of the Lower Mississippi Valley upper low, will
keep some consistency with previous forecasts and lean closer to a
drier forecast through at least Wednesday of next week.  At this
point, have low confidence regarding widely scattered/scattered rain
chances next Thursday as well. Am equally uncertain that the
trailing precipitation chances over Southwest Indiana and the
Pennyrile region of West Kentucky will also materialize on Sunday.

In addition to the default blended guidance initialization, some
influence of the Canadian, GFS, SREF, ECMWF, and GFS MOS guidance
was used to temper the aggressive influence of the GFS alone.  Minor
variations to this numerical model blend was made for winds,
temperatures, dew points, and cloud cover.

With the approach of a western U.S. trough forecast toward the
middle of next week, the influence and impact of the ridge will
wane, leading toward increased rain chances toward the end of next


Issued at 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Surface high pressure will be gradually loosening its grip on the
region through the 18Z TAF period. Northeast to east winds aob
10kts this afternoon will become light and variable if not totally
calm tonight, and then a south or at least southeast wind will
develop Friday morning. The only potential for non-VFR conditions
will be the possibility of more patchy fog at KCGI late tonight.




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