Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211727
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Considering isolated showers yesterday, low level trajectories,
and models trending stronger on clouds/diurnal pops today, will
include chances basically eastern half of cwa, isolated to
scattered showers.

Clouds may linger a little longer, even into tonight, esp east, as
final embedded short wave passage of energy within the long wave
trof doesnt pass til late tonight. Surface High then wedges in,
and centers over scntl MO, by 12z Sunday. And it slowly translates
its ridge overtop PAH FA over the course of the day Sunday and
Sunday night.

On Monday, the surface high pressure ridge begins to shift east a
little bit, allowing light southerlies by the end of the day to
work into SEMO. A big Low pressure/trof aloft digging over the
southwest U.S. backs a mean wswly Pacific flow of air that
translates all the way into the Mississippi valley by 12z Tuesday.
With it, we`ll see moisture start to increase in the column, as we
introduce Pops again, at least for our western half CWA, by 12z
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

It will be a rather busy long term period with chances for showers
and storms nearly every day. There will definitely be dry periods,
but we will basically see periodic upper level perturbations moving
through southwesterly flow aloft with plenty of rich Gulf moisture
arriving on southerly winds. Due to the uncertainity of the timing
of these perturbations, trying to depict exactly when the best
chances of precipitation will be, will be challenging.

We start off on Tuesday with an upper level ridge that will already
be moving off to the east. On the backside of the ridge, our region
will be in a moist southwesterly flow pattern. It takes a while for
the lower level moisture to move into the region, so most of the
area should remain fairly dry on Tuesday, except for possibly parts
of southeast Missouri. However, low level flow will be increasing
and it won`t take long for the moisture to reach our area.

By Tuesday night, chances for rain will be areawide. Beyond that,
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will muddle the
forecast through the end of the week. In addition, we will see a
decent increase in temperatures despite the clouds and intermittent
precipitation chances. Given the degree of warmer air that will be
advected into the area, especially later in the week, we will see at
least lower 80s, but if more sunshine is realized, wouldn`t be
surprised to see at least mid 80s in some locales.

The other change that we will be seeing from mid to late week is the
rise in humidity. The aforementioned southerly winds will be
bringing much more humid air into our region, i.e. dewpoints well
into the 60s. Also, looking at precipitable waters, any of the
stronger storms that develop during this time period (mainly
Tuesday night onward), will be capable of heavy rainfall, as PW
values will be at the 75th to 99th percentile. In addition, models
are showing a decent amount of instability during this time period
as well. Therefore, we could be dealing with some strong or
possibly severe storms from time to time, although wind fields
aloft are rather weak, but high enough to possibly produce some
gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Band of MVFR ocnl IFR over SW IN/NW KY will progress south with
improving conditions through the afternoon. Farther west clouds
generaly in the 4-7k/ft range give or take with some diurnal
enhancement. This area will progress south as well. Expect gusty
north winds 10-20 kts. After 00z-02z, skies will clear with winds
becoming light. This trend should continue into Sunday morning.
May have to monitor KEVV and KOWB for some light fog late
tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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