000
FXUS63 KPAH 120808
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

STRONG H5 RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS FROM 590-592 DM HOLDS FIRM OVER PAH
FA TODAY. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF MID SUMMER LIKE
HEAT/HUMIDITY WITH THE HEAT INDEX TOPPING 100...BUT JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE APPROACH VIA SPS.

A ROBUST AND FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH BREEZY SWLYS AT TIMES GUSTING INTO THE 20S KTS THIS
PM...ENOUGH TO WARRANT LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

THE SYSTEM MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT. MOST IMPRESSIVE DYMANICS/ENERGY
IS TO OUR NORTH...WHERE SPC PAINTS MDT RISK ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IN.
MOISTURE STARVED TO THE SOUTH AND LOSING DYNAMICS...THE LATE
PM/EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL HOWEVER CONTAIN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AS SUCH SLGT RISK DOES EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO ALONG/MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE IL/SW IN. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUGGEST PRIMARY STORM HAZARD TO BE DAMAGING WIND IF A SEVERE STORM
OCCURS. OVERALL POP IS ONLY IN CHC CAT DUE TO LIMITING FACTORS
AFOREMENTIONED.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKS IN TMRW IN WAKE OF DEPARTED SYSTEM. 00Z
MODELS CONTINUE FIRM TRENDING/CONSISTENCY SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE
NEEDED WITH FRONTAL TIMING/POP OR PRE/POST FRONTAL TEMP FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING WITH INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUTS
OUR AREA IN AN INTERESTING SPOT WEATHER WISE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO
LOOK RATHER IFFY AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. NOT SEEING
A REALLY STRONG SIGNAL TO INCLUDE MAJOR POP CHANCES AT THIS POINT.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HIGHLIGHTED DECENT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOW THE ONLY MODEL THAT ADVERISES IT IS THE GFS...WITH
THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEPING US DRY.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...BUT
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. RIGHT NOW...THERE
IS SOME CONSISTENCY THAT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA MIGHT HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY ATTM...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

BEYOND THAT...THE PICTURE BECOMES EVEN LESS CLEAR...AS A VERY MESSY
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO REMAIN
RATHER NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO REAL DRAMATIC UPS OR
DOWNS SEEN IN THE LATEST DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

MAINLY MID-HIGH WAA CLOUDS NOTED TODAY...BUT LOWERING BASES
ANTICIPATED AS PM CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM FRONT THIS EVENING. POPS BEST OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN CHANCE CAT WITH BEST CHANCE NE (KEVV/KOWB) TAPERING TO
LEAST CHANCE SW (KCGI/KPAH). BREEZY/OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SWLYS WILL
BE PREDOMINANT UNTIL FROPA OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A STORM BUT CHANCES PROB TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION ATTM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$