Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 100445

1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

High pressure will move off to our southeast tonight, causing
winds to shift to the south. Models show a pretty tight pressure
gradient between the high and an approaching cold front, so south
winds will increase tonight, becoming gusty by around day break.
Gusts by mid morning will likely reach around 30kts and persist
into early afternoon. The south winds will help temperatures reach
the lower to middle 70s. High clouds will slowly increase from the
north ahead of our next weather system.

Models are in good agreement showing the cold front bisecting the
PAH forecast area by 12z Friday, basically laying along the Ohio
River.  Models indicate a majority of the precip will be right
along and just behind the front. GFS and ECMWF bring some light
QPF into our northern counties by 06z Friday, with NAM just a bit
slower.  Went with slight to chance pops across our northern half
of counties Thursday night, then widespread chance pops across our
entire fa on Friday. Models are showing some low CAPE and LI`s of
-1 to -2, so we should see some thunderstorms mainly on Friday.
Stayed with some likely pops across some of our eastern counties
where models are showing a bit more QPF. Also lingered some low
pops for our eastern counties into Friday evening. Winds will stay
southerly for the most part through Friday night, so temperatures
will remain unseasonably mild.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

This extended period begins in a fast zonal flow, becoming southwest
in advance of low amplitude short wave from the Rockies
Sunday/Sunday night.  This shortwave will be the primary weather
maker for the forecast period, followed by cool high pressure Monday
into early Tuesday. Another shortwave develops in the Western U.S.
on Wednesday, but is slower and more intense, vertically tilted,
surface to upper level low will move from the plains into the middle
Mississippi valley by late next week.

Given the trajectory of the moisture (Gulf of Mexico), both the late
weekend/early next week weather event and the one late next week
should prove to be decent rain producers, with flash flooding not
out of the question.

Leaned closer to the operational GFS/Canadian numerical model
guidance as a template in the gridded forecast.

There is some concern for frost potential next Tuesday and Wednesday
Night. Given the growing season is in play, may have to consider
future headlines and/or a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

South winds will start to increase overnight and especially
Thursday morning. Winds aloft are well into the 30 mph range so we
could see gusts at least near 30 mph by Thursday afternoon. These
winds will be ahead of a cold front that will bring some high
clouds to the region. The front will bring some lower level clouds
(still VFR) and possible precipitation by late Thursday evening
mainly for KEVV/KOWB.



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