Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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052
FXUS63 KPAH 190430
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Deeper moisture remains and will remain just south of the PAH
forecast area until the weekend, though near the surface,
dewpoints will remain in the 70s until then. Meanwhile, the area
will be under slightly anticyclonic flow aloft, with ripples/
weaknesses in the flow, mainly at or below 700 mb, enhancing lift
enough to allow development of showers and some tstms from time
to time, notably in the southern half of the region during the day
Friday.

During the day Saturday, increased moisture transport and large
scale lift ahead of a vigorous cold front and a substantial mid
level trof will enhance shower and tstm development across the
region, especially by afternoon. Model consensus suggests that the
surface fropa will occur Saturday night, causing the cessation of
rainfall west to east over much of the region by the overnight
hours. Wind fields aloft appear somewhat favorable for strong to
severe tstms during the day, but the amount of instability
remains in question. A marginal risk of severe is being forecast
over most of the region Saturday.

Lows will be near 70, with highs in the lower half of the 80s. The
only exception will be Saturday night, where temps are expected to
drop into the 60s behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Above average confidence in the long term due to continued model
agreement.

At the beginning of the period high pressure will be overspreading
the region in the wake of a frontal passage Saturday into Saturday
night. The cooler drier high pressure will provide plenty of
sunshine, cooler temperatures, lower humidities, and dry conditions
through at least Tuesday night.

By Wednesday the region will be on the back side of the
aforementioned high pressure causing southerly winds to advect deep
layer moisture into the far western and northwestern portions of
our CWA. This combined with a weak disturbance in the southwest
flow aloft may generate showers and thunderstorms in the same
areas.

Precipitation chances slowly increase across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday as the deeper moisture spreads eastward along
with the passage of additional upper level impulses.

Temperatures and humidity levels will remain below normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Mainly VFR through 14z, with possible MVFR cigs. Vsbys may drop in a
few spots as well. Winds light south to near calm. Rain showers will
be possible into SEMO, WRN KY late tonight into Friday morning. The
activity should not reach SW IN, into NW KY until late in the day or
early evening.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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