Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051822

122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

It looks like drier air holds over the TN valley for another day,
but will continue its slow/gradual modification as a developing
weather system approaches, and dew points begin to increase, esp
by Monday.

A front drops into the lower OH valley by Monday afternoon, and by
then, dew points have returned to the more seasonal lower 70s.
Combined with the heat of afternoon highs in the lower 90s, this
will be enough to warrant scattered/chance category pops Monday,
esp during the pm hours.

With the front layed out somewhere in the vicinity, additional
upstream energy aloft will ride in overnight, and begin another
round of convection in MO that may be flirting with the area by
morning in the form of a diminishing MCS. We`ll thus carry the
Monday pops into/thru the overnight hours Monday night as well.

As stated, highs will be rising thru the upper 80s tmrw, to the
lower 90s by Monday, and as dew points likewise nudge into the 60s
tmrw, they will be approaching the 70s by Monday. This means lows
around 60 tonight, in the 60s tmrw night, and around 70/lower 70s by
Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

The extended forecast period begins with a series of low pressure
centers rotating near an apex centered over the Eastern Ontario
Province, south of Hudson Bay in Canada. The WFO PAH forecast area
is initially situated along the southern edge of the stronger band
of westerlies sandwiched in narrow band stretching from the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast Region of the U.S.

With minor shortwaves rotating southeast from the aforementioned low
pressure centers, a combination of isentropic/warm sector convection
can be expected with the best chances for rain on Tuesday and
Tuesday Night along the I-64 corridor, eventually working southeast
by Wednesday morning, as the westerlies shift slightly southeast
into the WFO PAH forecast area.

Anticipate some variation in the north-south gradient of
PoPs/Weather as the initial extended forecast period moves into the
0-72 hour time of the forecast, mainly owing to mesoscale/diabatic
influences on the overall pattern. This will also impact the
eventual coverage of severe weather hinted at in the SPC Day 4
through Day 8 Outlook period.

The ECMWF suggests that the forcing associated with the passage of
the shortwave/front on Tuesday may limit any significant moisture
return for any noticeable convection later in the week. However,
the effective frontal boundary will tail out across Southeast
Missouri, leading to the potential for boundary-induced diurnal
convection Thursday and Friday. The minimum overall chance of
PoP/Weather later in the week corresponds with the greatest
intrusion of the broad southern U.S. ridge into the WFO PAH
forecast area.


Issued at 109 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2014

Scattered cu bases during the heat of the afternoon will dissipate
with sunset, though some mid or high cloud blow off is still
possible, esp later tonight-tmrw morning. VFR conditions
anticipated xcp for the possibility of patchy, pre dawn mist/fog.



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