000
FXUS63 KPAH 161119
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

RADAR LOOPS NOW SHOW A POTENTIAL WEAK MCV JUST NORTH OF MEMPHIS
WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER SEMO. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
SEMO THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. THE MCV MAY LEAD TO
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FORECAST COVERAGE UPWARD.

UPDATED TAF SECTION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN CHALLENGES DEAL WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. BEST
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS IS OVER SEMO AND MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CONVECTION
CONTINUES ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WEAK UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI AND OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW TODAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY STAYING TO OUR WEST AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FIRST OVER SEMO LATER THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING EAST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALMOST ALL MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO.

THE WAVE SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST
PART DURING THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A BIT DUE TO THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO INCREASE OVER SEMO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOW IN
THAT AREA. HIGHER CONCENTRATION SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST AS THAT
PESKY WAVE LINGERS IN THE EAST PLUS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH MAY
SLIDE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY SOME DRY AIR CAN BE
SEEN IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WOULD INCREASE OUR THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY HAS COME INTO BETTER
FOCUS THIS MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ADVERTISE A TUG OF WAR
BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY GENERATE SOME QPF
MAINLY OVER WEST KENTUCKY. WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR BOTH PERIODS.

THE MODELS THEN PUSH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH...PUTTING OUR AREA
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATED POPS FROM BOTH OF THESE PERIODS. IT SHOULD BE
HOT...HUMID AND BREEZY ON MONDAY. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ANOTHER LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE OCCLUDED STORM
SYSTEM HEADING INTO TUESDAY. IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT THEN PUSHES THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WHOLE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND SEE LITTLE REASON NOT TO BELIEVE IT. WILL HAVE A LOT
OF 50-60 POPS FOR THE FRONTAL CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH INITIALLY WITH THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM...AND
NEVER REALLY PUSHES A BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. WITHOUT THAT
FOCUS...ITS QPF IS MORE SCATTERED AND GENERALLY LIGHTER.

A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST
WIND FIELDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE DECENT INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A PULSY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
TUESDAY.

THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
OPEN UP THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE NEXT THURSDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT THE STORM
SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND ACTUALLY TRIES TO BUILD MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH SUCH
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ERROR. WILL THEREFORE STAY THE COURSE WITH THE
ECMWF AND ADVERTISE A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...WITH SOME POPS IN THE
EAST NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LIKELY NOT
AFFECTING VISIBILITIES. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY 18Z. HOWEVER DUE TO LOW COVERAGE DID
NOT PUT ANY WEATHER IN TAFS. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE MID
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY AFFECT KCGI AND KPAH STARTING AROUND 10Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PS
SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...PS