Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131839
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
139 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Main focus in the short term is the warm up in advance of an
approaching cold front and the frontal passage through the WFO PAH
forecast area late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Also, there is the potential of approaching or exceeding record
highs at a few locations in Southeast Missouri and a few other
locations within the WFO PAH forecast area with shorter climate
reporting time periods. As an example, the forecast high
temperature for Cape Girardeau is 87 degrees for October 14th.
This would tie the record high set back in 1963.

Given recent forecast trends have better than average forecast
confidence in timing on the passage of the cold front with this
package.

Most of the instability will remain close to and just behind the
cold front, aligned with the channeled vorticity on the leading edge
of the progressive/neutral trough sliding southeast from the Upper
Plains and Midwest.

Both the deterministic 12z Friday GFS and the 09z Friday SREF
suggest a weak zone of channeled vorticity embedded in the
southwesterly flow aloft in the 12z-15z Sunday time frame ahead of
the main trough. This may support some enhanced updrafts along and
just ahead of the front with a slight ageostrophic response. Added
a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning hours for mainly
parts of west Kentucky, but confidence is low for occurrence.
However, for collaborative continuity, kept a small mention in
during the morning hours.

Otherwise, maintained temperature, moisture, and wind trends
consistent with regionally blended forecast initialization along
and ahead, and following the passage of the cold front.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Looking like a pleasant fall week ahead from Monday through Friday.

Surface high pressure will be the dominate weather feature across
the area this week. With 850mb temperatures still in the single
digits on Monday, highs will remain in the 60s. The center of the
high will be overhead late Monday night into Tuesday morning. With
clear skies and calm winds, Monday night into Tuesday morning should
be our coldest, with lows dropping into the lower 40s. Could
actually see some outlying areas drop into the upper
30s...especially up near MVN (Mt. Vernon IL).

High pressure will dominate for the rest of the week, which will aid
in keeping any chances for precipitation at bay. 850mb temperatures
will moderate somewhat into the teens by Tuesday and remain that way
for the rest of the week as winds become more southerly with time.
This will allow for highs in the 70s from Tuesday through Friday.
Lows will be in the 40s/50s.

Very dry air will have filtered into the area behind Sunday`s cold
front and that dry air mass will remain in place all week. This will
mean very low relative humidity values which will cause vegetation
to thoroughly dry out. This could cause some fire weather concerns
eventually but winds should be rather light with the surface high in
place, so any potential issues should be easily contained.&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Lasting influence of high pressure on the WFO PAH TAF sites will
wane within the first 6 hours of the 18z Friday WFO PAH TAF
issuance with a gradual turning of winds around to a mean
southerly direction.

Some mid-level moisture will be lifted over the area Saturday
morning, yielding a scattered deck of clouds between 7-8kft agl.

Little or no aviation impact due to winds, clouds, or
visibilities with the 18z Friday forecast issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...Smith



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