Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162222
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Looks as though the main weather story in the near term will lie
with high humidity levels and an increase in the likelihood of
scattered showers/thunderstorms later tonight and Thursday.
A well defined cold front will be moving southeast into the lower
Ohio River Valley on Thursday, with some short wave energy aloft.
Believe that this will combine with all of the increasing
moisture to offer the highest thunderstorm chances, and may even
manage to work up a few stronger ones during the day. The front
will exit the region Thursday night, taking the storm chances with
it as somewhat less humid air filters into the region from the
northwest. However, high temperatures Friday will still be above
seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The overall forecast confidence is moderate to high.

A compact mid/upper-level storm system will push from the mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Saturday. A very weak
surface reflection with this system may touch off a few isolated
showers or storms. Behind this system high pressure aloft will build
overhead, reaching its peak on Monday. This will result in very
isolated mainly afternoon convection and highs near 90 Sunday
through Tuesday.

The persistent eastern trough will amplify heading into Wednesday
which will suppress the ridge and bring a more substantial cold
front through our region Tuesday night. This will result in 50-60%
PoPs throughout the area Tuesday night, possibly lingering into
Wednesday over the south. The 12Z guidance is in pretty good
agreement throughout the extended, with just the typical relatively
minor timing issues Saturday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

As for the eclipse, there are no significant features to focus more
than isolated/slight chance PoPs through the day Monday. Sky cover
is less certain, but 30-40% coverage is forecast through the day. A
look at GFS sounding near KPAH shows a capping inversion just above
700mb with a cooler layer between 850mb and 700mb. If we are hot and
humid enough, we could see some shallow convection with lighter
showers, rather than deep convection/thunder. Of course with the
loss of insolation through the first half of the afternoon,
temperatures may not even be warm enough to support this shallower
convection. Slight chance PoPs are the best way to go at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Patchy fog remains a possible restrictor to vsbys toward morning,
otherwise anticipate growing shower/storm chance mainly tmrw pm
with VFR bases/cigs becoming MVFR in active precipitable weather
during the heat of the day/pm hours, but will maintain vicinity
mention for now due to scattered nature of diurnal convection
mainly during the planning period time of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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