Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200800
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Active weather in the short term. Today, s/wv trof at h5 across
the Upper Midwest will move east toward the Great Lakes. Surface
low pressure will follow suit. A front extending southwest from
the low, will approach the area from the NW this afternoon,
closing in on the Ohio River by 00z-02z. Convection will become
likely across the area as the front moves in. Not much to key in
on 500mb and up, so coverage may be broken (sct-numerous).
Respectable low level lapse rates and increasing DCAPE means a few
storms may result in strong winds. SPC Marginal risk area has
this covered well. Mostly below severe hail, with marginal 1"
isolated hail possible.

Tonight, the surface front will push just south of the area.
However, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue, especially
the southern 2/3 of the area. H8 SW flow continues into the area
with dew points aoa 10 deg C, WAA. This will continue to promote
some elevated instability for thunder as well. This trend will
continue into Friday, and to some extent Friday night, though a
down trend is possible for a time.

Focus then turns to an upper low forecast to move out of the
Rockies Friday, passing over the central Plains, and ending up
over MO by 12z Saturday. PoPs will ramp up again with thunder
expected given decent elevated instability. The system will move
east Saturday, with PoPs lowering from west to east Saturday
night.

We may see locally heavy rain with the events, and possibly some
low end flooding concerns in some form or fashion. Having said
that it will be drawn out over three days. Just something to
monitor. Model preference overall was a GFS/EC blend, with some
NAM incorporation in the first 24 hours. Temperatures will be
quite warm today, close to MOS most areas. Cooler temperatures
behind the front tonight through Saturday night. Went near or just
a shade below MOS, close to existing numbers. Saturday could be
quite cool some areas, especially southern IL, where readings may
not get too far above 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aside from some lingering showers in the far southeastern sections
of the forecast area, we should be dry on Sunday. High pressure over
the south central Plains will shift eastward throughout the day
which will mean a decrease in cloudiness throughout the day.
Meanwhile, upper level heights will be rising as an upper level
ridge builds overhead. This will set the stage for a pretty nice day
on Monday with sunny skies, light winds and highs in the low 70s.

The high pressure system that will be situated over the area on
Monday will weaken and shift east on Monday night as a frontal
system starts moving into the central Plains. This system could
impact us as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday or if the slower
GFS is correct - Wednesday night. Right now, we have to deal with
timing issues in the models so not going full force on POPs just
yet. We do know the first few days of the work week will be dry but
uncertainty starts toward the end of the extended period. It will
be warm however, with upper 70s to near 80 degrees on tap for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Quiet conditions overnight ahead of cold front which will approach
from the northwest tomorrow afternoon/evening. Mid level clouds
will be on the increase through the day. Main line of activity
expected to move from northwest to southeast mid afternoon thru
evening hrs. May have some isolated SHRA/TSRA ahead of the main
show. Expect reduced vsbys with any convection later in the day
and possibly lower cigs to MVFR for a brief time as well.
Otherwise VFR conditions outside of the convection. SW winds will
pick up by 14Z and expecting gusts up to 20-25 kts, strongest in
northeast (KEVV/KOWB). Winds will subside by evening and shift
around to N/NW by end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term.....CN
Long Term......CW
Aviation.......SP



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