Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210530 AAB
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Although the low clouds have been lifting all day, the clearing
line will progress northeast through the area mostly after sunset.
There are some hints in the 12Z model guidance that low clouds
will return overnight, so sunshine may not be very persistent
Saturday. The models also indicate a fairly tight pressure
gradient tonight into Saturday morning. With persistent southerly
winds tonight, leaned hard to the warm side of low temperature
guidance. Temperatures Saturday will be highly dependent on the
amount of sunshine received, but a few readings up to 70 degrees
or near record levels are possible, with the entire area climbing
into the 60s.

There remains quite a bit of disagreement amongst the 12Z models
on the latitude of the QPF with our next storm system to
potentially impact the area late Saturday through Sunday night.
The models all keep the stacked storm system to our south, but
vary in the amount of QPF there will be to the north of the center
over our region.

The GFS keeps any significant QPF confined to the MO/AR and KY/TN
border areas, while the NAM, ECMWF and CMC bring significant QPF
over most of the region, with the greatest rainfall in the south
and southeast. The GFS has some scattered showers and storms late
Saturday afternoon into the evening while the other models are dry
until Saturday night.

Decided to go with the majority here, especially since we seem to
be in a wet pattern, but there is some possibility that much of
the area may not see much precipitation with this system. With the
upper low just south of the area, lapse rates aloft are fairly
steep, so thunderstorms are a decent bet along with the showers.
Kept the thunder mention to chance levels, but included it through
Sunday.

The lapse rates are not that deep, as depicted in the NAM
soundings, so not overly concerned about hail potential. Will
mention a few strong storms with the potential for small hail and
some stronger wind gusts in the HWO, but feel that the overall
severe potential is low. The storm total QPF is well under an inch
even in the south, so there should not be much concern for
flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

This period will feature a pattern change, to a cooler and drier
regime. The persistent upper level trough over the western U.S. will
be replaced by a ridge, resulting in a downstream trough forming
over the eastern U.S. by later in the week.

As far as the daily details, Monday will feature departing showers
in our eastern counties earlier in the day, and a cool northwest
breeze. The sun may pop out for a time by afternoon with the best
chance over the western half of the area. Wouldn`t be surprised to
see the low clouds hang around through the day though. Highs will
range from 45 to 50.

A sfc ridge will move overhead Monday night into Tuesday, and should
help to scour out the clouds over most of the area. So the long
awaited return to sunshine may very well occur on Tuesday! Highs
will likewise jump up into the 50s, as a mild southerly wind takes
over.

A sfc low pressure system will move from the Central Plains into the
Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday, dragging a cold front
through our area Tuesday night and Wednesday. At this point, deep
moisture return looks very questionable ahead of the front and most
guidance is hinting at a dry frontal passage for most of the area.
This system appears to tap into better moisture the further
southeast it progresses, so included a slight chance for showers
over west KY Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday, cooler weather will move into the area with
temperatures near or a little below normal. Highs will struggle to
reach 40 in many areas by Friday. As our area becomes more
entrenched in the northwest flow aloft, small disturbances shuttling
down from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest may skirt close enough to
the area to produce some precipitation Thursday through next
weekend. At this time, the timing and track of any disturbance is
too uncertain to include any PoPs, although northeast counties may
end up with the best chance of receiving any measurable
precipitation. With colder temperatures in place, light snow would
be a possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

VFR conditions at all sites through the period, however cigs will
lower in the latter half of the period as moisture increases in
response to a developing system over the plains. Southeast to
south winds AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...JP


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