Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 220948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
348 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER 58
STATES THIS AM. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRATO CU OVERCAST
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM MOVING MUCH TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE
BACK UP PAST FREEZING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ARRIVES IN EARNEST TONIGHT AS TEMPS PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE LATER TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
GO AHEAD AND POP A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
CARBONDALE IL TO CALHOUN KY LINE FOR VALUES -10 TO -15. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

YET ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS USHERED IN WITH
FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON
TUE NIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE PAH
FORECAST AREA...DRIVEN BY A SRN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ENTER OUR REGION WED
NIGHT...DRIVEN BY ANOTHER SECOND MID LEVEL SHRTWV. THE MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE INDICATED A BIT ERRATICALLY THAT SOME PCPN (SNOW) MAY BE
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER...DUE TO LIFT BY
THE NEW DENSE AIRMASS. THE EXTENDED INITIALIZATION BLEND DID CONTAIN
SOMEWHAT RAMPED UP POPS EARLY THU...BUT NOT QUITE TO MEASURABLE
STATUS. WE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...DRY THROUGH
DAY 6.

BY FRI NIGHT...THE MOSTLY CYLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION
TO A MORE SWRLY TO NERLY DIRECTION. A SHRTWV IN THE FLOW...DEPICTED
A BIT MORE VIGOROUS BY THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE A LOT OF COLD
AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR IT. BY SAT...SFC TEMPS SHOULD
WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOSTLY SNOW WILL BE A PROMINENT PCPN TYPE EXCEPT FOR SRN
PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AND PENNYRILE REGIONS OF KY...WHERE SNOW MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAY`S END.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI. WIND CHILL READINGS ON THOSE MORNINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND -10 OVER PART OR ALL THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

CLEAR SLOT BEHIND DEPARTED RAIN BAND IS GRADUALLY FILLING IN
ADVANCE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE UPPER MIDWEST.
LOOKS AS THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TAF CYCLE AND
NLY WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.