Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 010552
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1152 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAF issuance

UPDATE Issued at 902 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

The cold front is making good progress across the region,
especially through the Evansville Tri State. This will make it
appear as though it is dragging its heels through southeast
Missouri, where there is little push to the front. The front
should clear the entire area shortly after midnight, and the
associated precipitation should also come to an end within an hour
of the frontal passage. Have yet to see an observation site
register measurable rain or a lowered visibility, so left PoPs
around 50% with the front.

Over the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky, a nice band of
stronger showers has developed and will slowly push east out of
the area over the next couple of hours. Cannot completely rule out
a rumble of thunder with this activity.

Have updated the forecast to account for latest observational trends
and the latest short term forecast guidance with respect to the
frontal movement.

UPDATE Issued at 550 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Main forecast challenge in the short term continues to lie with
the severe weather potential coming up on Tuesday across much of
the region.

In the meantime, a cold front will cross the region tonight,
bringing with it our next chance of showers. Little mid/upper
support with the front and low lvl convergence looks meager, so
should not be a big rain maker, and do not see enough instability
to warrant much of a thunder threat other than an isolated rumble
here and there. High pressure will then bring us a brief cool
down and dry period for the most of the day Monday, ahead of the
next stronger system that will be approaching the region on
Tuesday.

Vigorous mid/upper level low will eject northeast from the Plains
into the Midwest during the day Tuesday. An associated pre-frontal
surface trof will be approaching the mid MS River Valley by early
afternoon...and will cross srn IL/wrn KY/sw IN during the
afternoon and very early in the evening. Integrated moisture
values will also be increasing ahead of the front Tuesday
afternoon. Wind profiles suggest a decent severe storm potential,
depending on the amount of instability that can be generated. Much
of the operational model guidance now suggests MU CAPES 400-800
J/KG forming ahead of the front on Tuesday. Thinking is that a
QLCS type of event may be in order, with a squall line possibly
developing late morning over se MO, then transversing east across
the remainder of the forecast region Tue afternoon into the early
evening. Though damaging wind gusts with bowing segments appears
to be the most likely risk with this type of event, isolated/brief
tornado spin-ups cannot be ruled out. It is still looking as
though the higher svr risk will be over wrn KY, though I would not
be surprised if much of the region ends up in some type of SPC
watch box sometime on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

Its mainly dry through the extended with near normal temperatures.
However there is a cold front poised to move through Saturday. This
could produce sprinkles during the day or flurries overnight. But
for now we are not confident there will enough moisture for this to
produce an impact if anything at all. Plan to leave it dry unless
collaboration forces me to put a mention in the forecast. The
northwest flow remains in place most of the time with steep waves
rotating through. But again not sure enough moisture will be
available for precipitation at this time. The 12z Sun ECMWF is
coming in and it now is dry like the GFS and Canadian would suggest.
However the extended init used the 00z Sun ECMWF which had moisture
over the lower Ohio valley vs the dry 12z run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Low VFR cigs prevail in the early morning hours, but cigs will
gradually lift and dissipate throughout the day. Light rain
showers will linger over the next few hours along and just behind
the front, mainly impacting KOWB, KPAH, and areas in W KY, SE IL,
and far SW IN. Some mid/high clouds will re-enter the area late
Monday as the next system approaches. Winds near the front and its
associated showers are still up around 10 knots with a few gusts,
but post-frontal winds will generally be AOB 10 knots throughout
Monday, shifting eastward during the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH


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