Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241957
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

As ridging aloft is replaced by quasi-zonal flow tonight and into
Monday, a southwesterly low level jet will increase to 30 to 40
knots over our region. This should provide surface winds gusting
above 20 mph across the PAH forecast area on Monday, under partly
cloudy skies. By Monday night however, the combination of a
developing surface warm front just to our north and the proximity
of the remnants of a passing mid level shortwave to the north may
be enough to trigger some elevated deep moist convection generally
north of I-64. It appears there will at least be an increase in
cloud cover over most of the region.

Tuesday/Tuesday night, the west-to-east frontal boundary somewhere
in the northern half of our region should strengthen as flow aloft
eventually becomes cyclonic, and a negatively-tilted mid level
trof approaches from the central Plains. This combined with
increasing moisture will help to generate showers and tstms, more
so in the Evansville Tri-State Region Tuesday, and across much of
the region Tuesday night under larger scale lift. At this time, it
appears that there is some potential for a strong storm or two in
parts of southeastern MO/southwestern IL Tuesday night.

As a result of this pattern, Monday and Tuesday night lows will be
warm (in the 60s) while daytime highs creep further into the 80s
through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Somewhat above average confidence starts off the long term with
forecast models in fairly good agreement, but uncertainty over
spatial and temporal convective elements persists. Confidence
decreases to about average by late week with a bit more model
variability regarding the arrival of another storm system next
weekend.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to peak
Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure tracks slowly east
from the Central Plains into the Missouri Valley and shortwave
energy pivots northeast into the Mississippi Valley ahead of an
upper level low. There remains some concern for strong to severe
thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon and evening given the blend of
forecast instability and increasing bulk shear. However, the fine
details remain somewhat unclear. Much of the severe threat may
depend on how much convection occurs during the morning, the amount
of cloud cover present, and the overall impact on destabilization by
afternoon. At this time, southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois
appear to be in a somewhat more favorable environment for strong to
severe potential per the latest SPC Day 4 Outlook.

Models are in somewhat better agreement that mainly dry conditions
should take hold Thursday and Thursday night once the showers and
thunderstorms shift east of the area Wednesday night. However, the
forecast does become less certain by Friday as yet another slow
moving storm system approaches from the Central Plains. The GFS
remains the most aggressive model in bringing precipitation back
into the region as early as Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and
Canadian keep conditions dry until the weekend. Will maintain small
precipitation chances on Friday, with a peak in shower and storm
chances over the weekend as low pressure and a cold front sweep
across the Mississippi Valley.

Much of the extended will be influenced by southwesterly flow of
varying degree. As a result, temperatures are forecast to be warmer
than normal through much of the period. Highs should range from the
mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Just a few 4-6 kft clouds and a little cirrus will be around
today, mostly west. Scattered VFR clouds may still develop
overnight. Sustained south winds below 12 kts, with some gusts
into the teens, are possible this afternoon, especially for the
KCGI/KPAH terminals. We should keep plenty of south wind to
prevent fog formation tonight, in fact, sustained winds should
pick up to above 12 kts by the end of the 18Z TAF period. This
will be reflected in the next set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DB


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