Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 271953
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain begin to shift
slowly eastward on Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary just to the north of our CWA
should begin to dissipate with the setting of the sun or shortly
thereafter.

The frontal boundary is forecast to sag slowly southwestward
overnight into our CWA and be bisecting our area from NW-SE by 12Z
(7 AM) Thursday, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front
during the day. In the process, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the northeastern two thirds of our CWA and
continue into the evening hours.

On Friday we will be in the warm sector but widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the far northeast sections
where capping will be weakest, and over the far western sections
with the approach of a weather system developing over the central
plains. As this system draws closer to our CWA Friday night,
precipitation chances will increase from the west.

Right now the thinking is to NOT extend the Heat Advisory past 7 PM
this evening. The heat Index may reach 100 degrees in a couple of
spots Thursday afternoon, but not widespread enough to continue with
the advisory. If later guidance comes in with temperatures and/or
dew points a tad higher, a new advisory may become necessary. Alot
is going to depend on cloud cover Thursday and any convection that
develops.

Beyond Thursday the combination of cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat indices below 100 degrees, but not that far. Even
though heat indices (widespread) are not expected to reach advisory
criteria beyond today, persons across the lower Ohio valley still
need to take all of the necessary precautions to protect themselves
from high heat and humidity over the upcoming holiday weekend and
through at least the middle of next week as temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period
along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The beginning of the extended portion of this forecast package will
start with a shortwave moving through the western sections of the
WFO PAH forecast area in a sharp southwest to northeast flow at the
surface and aloft.

The gradient(or change)across the WFO PAH forecast area will remain
sharp, but become more west-southwest through the weekend and into
early next week as an upper level low in norther Minnesota pinwheels
a series of shortwaves over the area.

Th flow becomes more zonal and weaker as the aforementioned upper
low in MN shifts eastward and a broad west to east upper ridge
translates slowly north from the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains.

Most of the extended period, except for next Wednesday (when the
ridge builds in the from south) will see intermittent chances for
showers and thunderstorms as each shortwave glances the region.
Given fairly rapid changes in the upper flow during this time
period, there will be some forecast variability in the timing of the
showers and thunderstorms. Mesoscale influences may impact the onset
and dissipation of thunderstorm activity, making medium range
assessments of occurrence somewhat inconsistent at this time.

Temperatures are expected to hold within one to three degrees of
normal for this time of year during the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A weak cold front will try to push into the area today. Isolated
to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible along
and behind the front. The expected coverage is too low to mention
at this time.

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.

An area of MVFR clouds currently behind the front over northern
Indiana and northeast Illinois may impact KEVV and KOWB late
tonight. For now will just have a scattered deck, but some
guidance hints at the possibility of ceilings. Of course if the
ceilings develop, fog will not be an issue, but MVFR conditions
will still impact the terminals.

Light and variable winds will go calm by sundown, then pick up out
of the east to southeast AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith





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