Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 252327
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

QUIET RADARS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK MCV MOVING TOWARD SE IL NOT
ENOUGH TO FIRE UP ACTIVITY WITH A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF
BOUNDARY BASED FOCUS...WEAK LAYER AVG FLOW. LEFT 10 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER MAINLY SEMO INTO THE EVENING WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. OVERNIGHT RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY AS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE NW FROM SEMO INTO SW IL.
WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT ADDRESS A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN SUNDAY
OVER SEMO. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXPAND AND RUN ONE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
EXPANDING NE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN IN THIS NW FLOW REGIME ON THE EDGE OF AN BUILDING RIDGE
FROM THE SW. THE ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN HALF BAD PAST 24-36 HOURS. IT
SUGGESTS CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THEN
SHIFTS ACTIVITY INTO THE NE 1/3 OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS STILL A BLEND OF MOS AND PERSISTENCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS WILL NO DOUBT KEEP THE HEAT
ON AND HUMIDITY UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING US INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE EXACTLY STORMS MAY FIRE...AND
THIS SEEMS TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF WARM
AIR ALOFT. RIGHT NOW...THE SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
GETTING TOO CRAZY WITH POPS ATTM. SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE FROM
MONTANA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE WEEK. THIS
WILL END UP FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME. WE WILL SEE SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN/SUPPRESS TO THE SOUTH. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
PROVIDE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. UNSURE AS TO THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS AS THIS POINT GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT. MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON QPF SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE CATEGORY.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW LONG TO LINGER
POPS. THE GFS AND GEM MODELS HOLD ONTO PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT IS USUALLY TOUGH TO PUSH
A FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA THAT QUICKLY...BUT WITH THE
WNW FLOW ALOFT...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY EASILY. EVEN
IF PRECIPITATION LASTS INTO THURSDAY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE
SHOULD SEE LOWER TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO MENTION TS
OR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECASTS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOG
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY NOT GO
COMPLETELY CALM...AND WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
MID-CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. KPAH IS MOST LIKELY
TO AVOID SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR FOG
THERE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ100-107>110-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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