Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151932
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Despite the departure of morning convection, and brief pause we
are currently enjoying, the short term forecast is riddled with
similar such waves of energy rippling out of the west-northwest
flow aloft, that will induce a chance of showers/storms
periodically on an almost daily basis through the course of this
portion of the forecast.

The surface airmass will therefore remain little changed thru this
course, xcp for meso scale differentials created by the moisture,
its precipation, and/or its clouds and the subsequent impacts on
daily highs/lows. This includes pcpn/systems impacting our area,
and nearby/just downstream, whose blowoff will likewise impact our
area. As a result, mean ranges will remain from the upper 60s to
low/mid 70s for Lows...and upper 80s to low/mid 90s for
highs...with dew points not far off 70 throughout, and thus,
humidity levels remaining muggy at night and sweltering during the
day. Pops will range from slights to mid chance cats, with a
beginning spike trend showing up just prior to the late weekend
peak Pop with fropa.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

It will remain warm and humid across our area into Sunday.  Models
are in agreement dragging a cold front across the PAH forecast area
on Sunday.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with
its passage, and models also show some post frontal showers and
storms will continue into Sunday night, tapering off from northwest
to southeast.  Went with high chance to likely pops Sunday into
Sunday evening.

Dry conditions will filter into the area for the early part of the
work week.  Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday will
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday, with high
temperatures only reaching the 80 to 85 degree range.  The dry and
less humid conditions will persist into Wednesday, although winds
shifting back to the south on Tuesday will lead to a slow rise in
moisture and heat through the week.  Dew points will climb back into
the upper 60s by Thursday, with high temperatures around 90 degrees.

The return of moisture also means an increase in precipitation
chances by late in the week.  So far we only have a slight chance of
showers and storms Thursday afternoon in our northeast counties, but
we will need to keep an eye on timing and location of some late week
disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Scattered bases in the low VFR range are still possible this pm,
with the exception of KOWB, where MVFR bases linger for maybe
another hour. Overall, drier (relative) air in the wake of the
departed pcpn will translate to a diminishing evening sky trend.
An MCS like feature to our west will move close enough overnight
to increase some mid and high cloud cover again toward morning,
but pcpn chances should hold off or be low enough to preclude
mention. Stuck between wake westerlies to our east, and return
warm sector southerlies to our west, we`ll see a slow transition
from variable to southerlies becoming established during the
planning period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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