Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270729
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

It is quite impressive to see the Canadian, GFS, and ECMWF
maintain continuity for the development of diurnal enhanced
convection Sunday afternoon/early evening for nearly a week now.
Although there has been a significant variance in PoP for Sunday,
the timing and general location (mainly the Pennyrile Region of
West Kentucky) has remained constant. Even with the low chance
PoPs in place, the coverage may still be overdone. However, given
the uncertainty in the speed and movement of the rain, a decision
to continue "broad brushing" the PoPs was left in place for Sunday
afternoon.

Even though it is surprising to see the low over Southwest Texas
(it was originally over northern Texas and southwest Oklahoma in
last weekend`s model runs), the progression of the trough/low and
the associated lift toward the WFO PAH forecast area still makes
sense.

Other than refining cloud cover and other sensible weather
elements, no significant changes were made to the short term
forecast package as this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Forecast confidence increasing somewhat in the long term as
latest model runs come into better agreement.

At the beginning of the period high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft already in place should keep the region dry with
slightly above normal temperatures through at least Wednesday night.

On Thursday as a developing weather system emerges from the central
plains, the leading edge of precipitation is expected to make it
into the far western and northwestern sections of our CWA.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage area wide should be greatest
Thursday night into midday Friday with the passage of the
aforementioned system`s frontal boundary and associated short wave.
As alluded to above, models in much better agreement with the
approach and passage of this system.

Precipitation chances should diminish from west to east Friday
afternoon. Although it`s difficult to pin down how much QPF this
system will generate this far out, it certainly has the potential
for at least measurable precipitation for our entire CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

Little change to the TAFs with this issuance. KCGI is already
starting to drop, and still expect it to at least periodically
drop to VLIFR levels through daybreak. In addition, KPAH has already
gone down to MVFR levels, so it may also try to tank later tonight.
Elsewhere, no reductions are expected. The latest guidance has
slowed down the arrival of 3-5kft clouds, mainly until Saturday
evening. Winds will be light from the northeast or east through
the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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