Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 120448
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Thursday, then a cooling trend Friday on
  through the weekend into early next week.

- Brief chance for a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night
  into Thursday, then numerous showers and scattered
  thunderstorms expected Thursday night through Friday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

High pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. will remain in
control of our weather through Tuesday.  We will remain dry, and
with southerly winds, a warming trend is expected into mid week.
With very dry air in place at all levels, we will see little in
the way of clouds through tonight, then some high clouds will
begin spreading into our region Tuesday.

By late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, models show a
mid/upper level wave passing over the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio valleys, as a warm front develops/lifts north.
Models solutions vary greatly as to precipitation chances, if
any, for our area. Time heights show modest moisture increase
along the warm front, and it seems reasonable to have some
slight to low chance PoPs late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, with the slightly higher chances across our north.

We may see a brief lull Wednesday afternoon, if the warm front lifts
far enough north, then the approach of the associated surface low
and attendant cold front will begin to slowly spread better
precipitation chances into our area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Our highest chances, with likely to categorical PoPs, will be
Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold front pushes through
our region. No concerns with severe potential at this time.
Rainfall totals continue to range from around three quarters of
a inch north to an inch and a half south, with localized higher
amounts with thunderstorms. We need the rain, and these amounts
should not cause any issues. Also, south to southwest winds will
increase ahead of the front Thursday, with afternoon winds
speeds around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Behind the cold front, cooler conditions will filter into the PAH
forecast area for the weekend.  Models show another cold front
moving through the region late Saturday into Saturday night,
bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air.  A few light showers are
possible with its passage late Saturday night, wringing out
what little moisture is left, so included some slight chance
PoPs for showers.

Surface high pressure will build over the Central Plains late in
the weekend into Monday. Models show an upper level trof
swinging toward our area during this same time period. Models
are in disagreement if this feature will bring us some rain
chances, but with dry air in place across our region, the safer
bet is to keep the PAH forecast area dry Sunday into Monday.

Both highs and lows will be 15 to around 20 degrees above
normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Although cooler conditions
will arrive for Friday and through the weekend, we will still be
above normal Friday and Saturday. Readings will finally drop to
seasonable values for Sunday, then around 5 degrees below
normal by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The TAFs are VFR. South southwest winds should pick up by late
morning and gust to near 20kts through the afternoon, before
diminishing to under 10kts by 00Z. There might be a few cu
around in the afternoon, but otherwise, look for increasing
high clouds through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DRS


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