Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 131925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Surface High pressure will anchor across the Great Lakes and Ohio
valley, drawing in cool and dry northerlys and northeasterlys
across the Quad State through the remainder of the weekend. This
will allow temps to drop to near record levels in the lower and
middle 40s tonight. A 25-30 degree rebound tmrw will make for
pleasant Highs in the lower-middle 70s.

On Monday, height falls across the upper Mississippi valley will
translate southward with time, as an upper jet/trof axis streaks
across the upper Ohio river valley mean trof. Limitied moisture
and the brevity of return flow means Pops will be marginal,
despite the dynamical strength of the jet driven system. We`ll
continue with a slgt chance 20 mentionable Pop for our western
counties mainly Tuesday, but some sprinkles or isolated showers
may occur anytime along/ahead/or just behind the system`s
approach/passage Monday-Tuesday. During this time frame, temps
will moderate back through the 50s/70s for lows/highs,
respectively, approaching their upper thresholds even.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A tranquil autumn-like pattern will persist through the extended
portion of the forecast. The region will remain in northwest flow
through Friday with high pressure riding over the western U.S. and
an upper level trough in the east. At the surface, the core of high
pressure will migrate across southeastern Canada into the Great
Lakes and northeastern U.S. through the latter half of the week. As
a result, dry conditions and below normal temperatures are expected.
Daytime highs will slowly moderate through the mid and upper 70s
with nighttime lows in the 50s.

The upper level ridge in the west build into the region by next
weekend. Southerly winds will develop at the surface as the high
continues to shift to the east. As a result, temperatures are
forecast to warm into the lower 80s on Saturday. This may eventually
lead to a small chance of precipitation over the weekend. Prefer to
keep the forecast dry at this point given lowered confidence from
relatively poor model agreement that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The loss of diurnal fuel will allow lingering cu fields to
disperse and clear skies overnight. Drier air working down the
column should inhibit expansive fog, but patches in prone locales
are possible. Light northerlys-northeasterlys will predominate
thru the period as Surface High Pressure anchors to the north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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