Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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002
FXUS63 KPAH 171932
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

During the next 24-36 hrs, we see Low pressure lift across the
Red River valley, with associated moisture advecting northward/up
the Mississippi valley, and chance cat pops spread across the Quad
State tmrw. Altogether, the pcpn is light qpf, as the Low tracks
across our southern border. Pcpn chances wind down/diminish in our
south/east Saturday evening.

Afterwards, high pressure ridging moves in. So the continuation of
unseasonal warmth is retained throughout the duration of the short
term, with 60s highs commonplace and even some lower 70s making an
appearance Sunday. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A highly amplified pattern will be in place at the start of the
period, with an upper level ridge starting to exit the area and a
elongated trough across the country`s midsection. Models have come
into better agreement now that we will likely need some POPs late
Monday night across far western sections of the CWA, as this upper
trough nears and moisture increases across the area.

Better chances areawide arrive on Tuesday but there are still
differences in QPF between models. This is due in part to the
stronger northern end of this system. An upper level low will cut
off over Texas Monday evening and the northern end of this trough is
projected to be a bit stronger as it crosses east across the central
Plains and eventually into the Missouri Valley. Models differ on the
strength right now. In addition, a frontal boundary is depicted to
our west, but weakens as it shifts eastward. At this point, cannot
see going any higher than 20-30 POPs for Tuesday. The GFS ensemble
precip mean indicates the best chances across our south, which makes
sense. Then there is the Canadian model, which shows us in between
systems and leaves us totally dry Monday night through Friday.

Whatever rain chances we do have on Tuesday are expected to decrease
steadily Tuesday evening from west to east. Chances for rain on
Wednesday are still questionable. It all depends on the path of the
upper low to our south, along with how our next system evolves. A
strong sfc low will eject out of the eastern Rockies and into the
central Plains states Thursday night. As that occurs, a warm front
may lift northward across our area Wednesday night, which may
provide us with a chance for some precipitation. Small chances for
precipitation will continue for the rest of the week as this system
approaches and a fropa occurring possibly Friday night, which is
when POPs will peak.

After a warm day in the lower 70s on Monday (trended toward the
warmer guidance), the rest of the week will stay in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Time/height cross sections show a down-column saturation that will
occur commencing later tonight but esp tmrw, as Low pressure
drifts into/across the area. We`ll see VFR CIGS thru the bulk of
the forecast, lowering to flirt with MVFR CIGS by the end.
Vicinity showers will be possible south, mainly KCGI/KPAH, tmrw
during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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