Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 081823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
123 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Not sure about this afternoon. It is under-played, attm, with a
dearth of radar returns. Still, Laps shows surface destabilization
occurring with negative LI`s, and dew points near 70F, and primary
cold front still to our north, dropping in. Upper circulation
center noted on WV imagery rotating across Great Lakes should
drive front on thru FA this pm/early evening. Would anticipate
with further juicing of the atmos this pm, convection should fire
along/ahead of said frontal boundary. That means a higher chance
south, vs north, but we`ve cut back strictly into the chc cat for
now. Also NAM races it on thru, GFS hangs it a little but races it
thru compared to previous runs, so we think the chance (including
SPC swody1 SLGT risk) will be mainly thru the pm/early evening
hours with notable cut-off after midnight with fropa.

After that, a nice cooling in both surface air and dew point temps
should make the mid to close of the week pleasantly mild.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

High pressure will continue to bring dry weather Thursday night
before moving off to the east on Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints
will climb a couple of degrees per day through the weekend on warm
and moist low level winds. Thursday night lows in the middle 60s
will give way to lows over the weekend in the lower 70s. Highs will
nudge up from the upper 80s on Friday into the lower 90s for the
weekend.

Aloft, the region will stay in northwesterly flow on the fringe of
an upper level low. While an isolated chance of a shower or storm
will be possible on Saturday, the better chance will come Sunday as
an upper level disturbance moves north of the region. Chance pops in
the northeastern part of the forecast area will lower to slight pops
over the Ozark foothills.

Models are highly variable with the weather early next week. The GFS
aggressively pushes a front through the Ohio Valley on Monday and
stalls it over the Tennessee Valley before lifting back north late
Tuesday hinting at a very wet period for our region. The ECMWF on
the other hand is much weaker with the front on Monday but does also
stall it to our south. It, however, keeps it to our south through
the better part of the week with energy producing rain chances up
around the Great Lakes and to our south along the stalled boundary.
At any rate, have high chance pops on Monday with the passage of a
frontal boundary. Temperatures will be tempered somewhat on Monday
with cloud cover and precipitation with highs back down into the
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Visibile imagery shows some marginal MVFR cu bases developing
along frontal boundary, which is poised to sag south across the
terminals this evening. With it, may be an isolated convective
chance, precluded from mention for now. After fropa winds shift to
nwlys and lessen, but prior to, gusts into the 20s out of the
southwest are anticipated.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





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