Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 160442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Updated the aviation section only.

&&

UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Just sent out a minor update for very short term trends through
the evening. The freeze forecast is on track, and the freeze
warning looks good. No changes to the headline are planned this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a
split flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Under a veil of scattered thin cirrus clouds, winds will go nearly
calm and veer to the se overnight. After daybreak, as the center of
high sfc pressure moves off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient
will tighten a bit, especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts
15-20 kts in the afternoon, then diminishing by sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB








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