Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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790
FXUS63 KPAH 240717
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
217 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Saturday provided another day of above mos guidance High temps,
with lower 90s nearly uniform across the FA. It won`t be a shock
if we see that again today, but there should be a little more
influence from the lower Mississippi river valley Low pressure
area aloft, so we`ll adjust temps to just maybe 1 degree above
guidance, vs 2-3 degrees above.

The GFS has been the most aggressive generating diurnally fueled
convection this pm, but the short res models do it as well. And
all the modeling suggests the area most likely to receive these
scattered cells will be the southwest 1/3 of the FA, so we`ll run
with slight chances there, with only minor massaging necessary.

Monday-Tuesday, the High actually strengthens its grip, and the
column becomes capped as we`lre stuck between Maria nearing the
Carolinas to the east, and the developing/approaching cold front
to the west. We`ll have a hot/dry forecast, likely at/above
guidance again, with Highs around 90/Lower 90s. Dew points/Lows
range from the mid-upr 60s each day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

With Hurricane Maria in the Atlantic off the East Coast and a
longwave trough very slowly progressing eastward from the western
1/3 of the U.S. into the upper Midwest and the Central Plains by
next weekend, the overall extended forecast period will remain under
the influence of broad high pressure.

A vast majority of the medium range guidance supports this dry and
warm solution. Given the subsidence, the depth of moisture will be
limited and the likelihood of haze and some air quality issues
(ozone/particulate alerts in urbanized areas) will likely increase.

Believe maximum temperatures may be 1-2 degrees too low with this
scenario, but am somewhat constrained from a collaborative
standpoint with the regionally initialized model guidance. For now,
attempted to increase temperatures slightly in some areas without
impacting overall big picture.

Although maximum temperatures will be up to 10 degrees above normal
and minimum temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal, heat
index concerns will be below critical thresholds during the extended
time periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Patchy morning fog will again be a potential offering for flight
restrictions to vsbys. Diurnally drive cu bases will develop in
the 4-6K FT AGL Range, and may become broken at times during the
pm hours/with vicinity showers/storms, particularly south/west
(KCGI/KPAH). A return to benign conditions will come as the
daytime fuel is lost during the evening and early night time hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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