Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Convection continues to rim around mid level high centered over
the Mid Atlantic states. Surface front has stalled just to our
north. Our winds will more likely be influenced by outflows. Will
continue with scattered convective chances into the evening across
the area, with a slow eastward progression possible. Lowest PoPs
will be across the KY Pennyrile. This same general theme will be
in the overnight forecast, better chances NW of the Ohio. There
may be a down trend this evening with loss of heating prior to the
overnight chance.

Another impulse will bring a chance of convection, best chances NW
of the Ohio Saturday, diminishing chances into the afternoon and
evening as the surface warm front, which never really makes it in
here, heads NE away from the CWFA. Kept it dry Saturday night,
with just diurnally enhanced slim chances Sunday into Sunday
evening. Little change in airmass. Used persistence and blended
MOS for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The upper ridge is forecast to hold through Tuesday. After that,
the models hint at a strengthening trof over east Canada with a
building ridge from the central and northern Rockies into western
Canada, that should turn our mid level flow more to the northwest.
Will keep PoPs low chance for now, and mainly diurnal. Wednesday
into Wednesday night may be our peak chance time frame for
convection as a front comes into play. But overall confidence is
still somewhat low. Tended to favor the EC/ECENS solutions.
Therefore, we used the ECE/ECM MOS and blend numbers for temps in
the long term.


Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A final round of showers and storms will impact KOWB and most
likely KEVV, too, for the first hour or two of the period. Not
sure how much TS there will be, but figure KOWB will see a decent
shot at it. The stratiform rain currently over KPAH should
diminish before the beginning of the period, and MVFR fog is
likely to develop quickly once it does. Although KCGI has not
gotten tangibly wet recently, they should also see MVFR fog fairly
early in the period. Will have to watch for IFR or lower
conditions in fog at both of these sites and possibly KEVV and
KOWB if they get some significant rainfall in the next few hours.

Once the fog lifts in the morning, VFR conditions should prevail,
with high pressure aloft re-asserting itself over the region.
Outside of thunderstorm outflows early in the period, winds will
be light through the remainder of the forecast at all sites.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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