Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270805
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
205 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Ongoing warm/moist air advection resulting in overrunning rain
now, will be transitioning to more showery/convective element
activity as we move forward in time/the column destabilizes.

Models pick up on current tongue of 40s surface dew points
working into FA, and we should see 50s dew points incoming by this
afternoon. Mid to upper end 50s are at the southwest doorstep of
the FA by 00Z Tuesday, with next northward surge of moist tongue
drawing in 60s dew points tonight. That`s when we see elevated
instability parameters more supportive of thunder inclusion as
well, and this sets the stage for an increasingly active forecast
from late tonight thru Tuesday into Tuesday night/early Wed.

1st good round of thunder thus looks to be late tonight-early
Tuesday, as columnar instability deepens and we get 0-1KM MUCapes
pushing quad digits. After a brief pause, but still warm sectored
moist/unstable airmass storms possible, pm/evening hours should
begin to see another good round of organized convection with
deepening shear profile and near record pm temps in the 70s. 00Z
Models appear to be picking up on convective signal of strong to
potentially svr storms working across southern FA thru 06z,
perhaps just beyond. New SWODY2 expands ENH risk to cover more of
SWIL/SWKY as a result, with SLGT risk elsewhere.

Also think for 2-3 nights in a row now, the models are suggesting
basicaly an end to this event by Wed morning, but we`ll have to
see how the new SWODY3 works with how much thunder to play into
the morning hours Wed. At this writing, LMK/OHX/MEG/PAH seem to be
in good agreement on waning/diminishing convective (svr) threat
with fropa late Tue night-early Wed, transitioning to more of
heavy rain/ending pcpn scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Confidence continues to increase with the extended.

The cold front moves through early Wednesday morning with high
pressure coming in its wake. Put a chance of thunder in early
Wednesday morning but model trends and FB are lowering pops across
the board Wednesday. I believe this  trend will continue to the
case. would not be surprised if later runs takes any chance of rain
well east of the Mississippi River by Wednesday afternoon at the
latest. Otherwise high pressure will build into the region bringing
cooler and drier air on northwest winds. It will likely be gusty
winds in the fronts wake on Wednesday but will soon overnight. As
the high shifts to our east the winds will swing back around to a
more southerly component. We will likely see a freeze Thursday night
as typical the coldest temps behind the front often occur the second
night after its passage. A warm up will begin in earnest this
weekend...once again bringing temps above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Satellite/radar loops show ongoing warm/moist stream with
overrunning rains impacting all sites but conditions remain VFR.
Gridded time/height cross sections reveal a deepening moist tongue
which presumably will draw down CIGS to MVFR later this morning.
We should see overrunning rains become more convective/showery in
time, as the column further destabilizes in the warm sector.
Anticipate MVFR restrictions into the overnight, with the next
best slug of moisture coming late and likely offering IFR
restrictions to both CIGS and VSBYS in convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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