Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140457
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 734 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Latest radar trends and model data indicate light showers are making
further northeast progress into southern IL and western KY. Forecast
has been updated to account for real-time trends. Although these
showers are still expected to dry up as they continue northeast, the
models are indicating a second surge of moisture very late tonight
in western Kentucky. The 18z NAM looks a bit unrealistic with its
deepening surface low and heavy qpf in the Hopkinsville area around
12z Monday. Latest radar mosaic from the mid-South region is not
verifying the NAM qpf. However, pops have been raised to near 50
percent in much of western KY, and qpf was raised slightly. Thunder
was removed from the forecast tonight given the lack of elevated or
surface-based instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Short wave energy will rotate east through the MS River Valley
later tonight and Monday. Most of the precip associated with this
feature sis progged to remain mostly south of the forecast
area...though the 12Z ECMWF is a bit more robust with rain amounts
on our southern border with AR/TN so will maintain at least some
chancy pops in that region, esp during the morning hours. Not
expecting a big impact.

Monday night into through Tue/Tue night should be mostly on the
rainfree side, though humidity levels will be on the increase as
southerly flow deepens. Only region we will carry some small pops
will be over se MO, where another weak short wave may impact the
region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The beginning of the long term period features a broad upper trough
in the west and upper high in the deep south. We are stuck in
between with southwest flow over the region. When you combine that
with increasing Gulf moisture, we will have scattered showers and
storms around. This begins on Wednesday and models are in agreement
on that, but not as much with exact timing (morning vs afternoon
chances). For now, broadbrushed chance POPs for the day will do.

For Thursday, our attention then turns to a frontal boundary, which
initiates in the mid part of the country on Wednesday and moves
eastward with time. Again, timing is a problem amongst the models
but we should be seeing an increase in the chance for more
convection especially late Wednesday night and into Thursday with
the approach of this frontal boundary. These chances will continue
into Thursday night and possibly early Friday morning. There are
still differences in the timing of when the front actually exits the
area.

Given differences in timing of this front and the fact that the
ECMWF is stalling the front out over the region, will have to
maintain some slight chances on Friday and even into part of the
weekend. The upper flow becomes zonal by the end of the week but
appears we could have multiple disturbances passing through for the
weekend but going to mimic the midnight shift`s thoughts of keeping
the weekend mainly dry for now. Lots of time to pinpoint best
chances for more convection.

Unfortunately, the heat index could approach 100 degrees outside of
the scattered showers and storms on Wednesday and/or Thursday for
some areas, as highs near 90 degrees and our dew point gets into the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Guidance continues to trend wetter late tonight through Monday
morning, and likewise is indicating lower conditions. However,
most of it appears to be too far north with the main swath of
precipitation and the lowest conditions. Still planning on the
worst conditions over the southern half of the area, especially
west Kentucky. Not sure if the rainfall will be anything worse
than MVFR, but ceilings could be IFR or lower. Confidence is too
low to mention anything below MVFR levels at this time. Conditions
should improve in the afternoon, but lower VFR ceilings may linger
through the period, especially in the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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