Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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401
FXUS63 KPAH 061738
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly high
clouds. Southwest winds will become light tonight and increase
during the late morning on Sunday. Some gusts of 16-18kt possible
at all sites after 16z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...PS



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