Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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146
FXUS63 KPAH 011231
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail over the PAH forecast area
until early in the weekend. Meanwhile, surface high pressure,
initially centered over the Deep South, will ensure mostly clear
and dry weather with seasonable temps until then as it expands
across the mid MS River valley with time. Westerly surface winds
will dominate most of the time, especially early today when the
pressure gradient will be initially tighter between an eastward-
moving Great Lakes low and the southern high.

Saturday looks dry for most of the day, though clouds will be on
the increase out of the southwest. The models do suggest a low
chance PoP for some "overrunning" type rainfall making it to the
ground over southeastern MO/westernmost KY before nightfall, but
with dewpoints in the 30s, measurable rain is not likely. Our
surface winds will shift around to the east by then, keeping
temps on the cool side, and dewpoints in check.

Saturday night, mid level shortwave energy is forecast by the
models to move out of the central Plains and tap into the
moistening trop over us, making pcpn more likely for the entire
region. Atmospheric profiles suggest that, after midnight, ice
nucleation is likely in parts of the region, and temps near the
ground should be cold enough for a little light snow to mix with
light rain. The pcpn is most likely to go over to all snow for a
time north of I-64. Snowfall is possible north of a line from
about Cape Girardeau to Paducah to Hopkinsville. Warm ground temps
will mitigate any impact of the snow. By mid morning Sunday, pcpn
will be all rain, and is expected to rapidly cease from west to
east during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Model preference at the beginning of the period is a GFS/GEFS &
EC/ECENS split, providing some weight to a slightly slower solution
with respect to ejecting H5 low energy from the southern Plains
Sunday night through Monday night (across our area). After that more
weight was given to the more stable EC/ECENS solutions Tuesday-
Wednesday. Temps were a blend of MOS and blend model output.

Dry Sunday night with weak high pressure in control. Monday, PoPs
for showers will increase from SW to NE through the day, with
showers likely Monday night. In the wake of the NE ejecting energy,
should be a lull, with decreasing chances mainly Tuesday morning,
dry by Tuesday night. The EC solution is slower with the movement of
the mean trof into the central U.S. by Wednesday. Favor the slower
progression in this increasingly amplified pattern. Will increase
PoPs from west to east Wednesday for showers, peaking Wednesday
night. A few snow flakes could mix in late Wednesday night as colder
air pours in before the moisture completely departs to our east. Dry
and colder weather appears in store beyond this extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours and beyond.
Sustained west southwesterly surface winds will remain under 12
knots, but with higher gusts possible in some areas this afternoon.
The only appreciable cloudiness will be over parts of southern
IL/southwestern IN from time to time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



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