Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260712

212 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 212 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

High pressure will remain across the area through Thursday night.
The result will be dry weather with temperatures below normal. The
models forecast an upper level trof will approach from the NW on
Friday. Should be a bit warmer Friday on the west side of the
high, still dry. We could see some convective activity on our door
step (SEMO, SRN IL) by morning Saturday. For now, will keep Friday
night dry given the marginal moisture and timing issues some of
the models continue to have. Temps will be a blend of MOS and
existing numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

For this extended forecast package, the only weather (rain-
producing) impact is still slated for Saturday. However, the
deterministic 00z Wednesday 40km GFS and the newly arrived 00z
Wednesday ECMWF are lessening the overall lift and moisture
convergence across the WFO PAH forecast area during the day on
Saturday. May make some last minute adjustments for collaborative
continuity across NWS office boundaries, but do not see the Saturday
system being significant at this time, even with the upper
trough/closed low over Wisconsin.

Given the surprisingly minimal dynamic systems across the Central
and Eastern Pacific, really having a difficulty seeing the upper
ridge influence becoming dislodged too east through at least next
Wednesday. The ECMWF is more pronounced with moving the southern
Texas closed low into the lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of
next week, while the GFS is much weaker and further east with the
low, actually shifting it southeast from the aforementioned low in
Wisconsin. Given the variability of these two numerical models and
the minimal precipitation shield they generate in and near the WFO
PAH forecast area, will keep conditions dry from late Saturday
through next Wednesday.

Slight variations made from blended guidance with respect to
temperatures, winds, and sky cover.  However, the model dewpoints
are a little higher than expected, so adjusted them downward and
blended with surrounding offices.


Issued at 518 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

GFS Model Curule has done a good job depicting the diurnal cu
field each of the last two afternoons. Tmrw it depicts its
expansion further south/west into the flight area...with probable
cigs at KEVV/KOWB and scattered decks at KPAH and KCGI...with
cloud bases around 5K FT AGL. Otherwise little/no cloud or wind
and likely we`re still dry enough to preclude fog mention
tonite...though it`s something to monitor as the night progresses.



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