Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Challenge today will be clouds and temperatures. Surface low over
Ohio at 07z. Fog imagery shows a good deal of low clouds moving
south into the area. However, the clouds tend to break up toward
the AR/TN borders. The transition to pure northerlies sfc-925mb
is still trying to take shape. As the low continues away from the
area, this should occur with some veering to the NE. The overall
cloud forecast is somewhat of a challenge. That will play havoc
with temps. Will play it middle of the road for now. More likely
to trend cooler up toward I-64 southern IL, southwest IN, but stay
closer to guidance farther south, should we see more breaks than
currently forecast.

Upper low seen over northern AR early this morning is forecast to
track across the southern Rockies and end up over the central
Plains over the next 60 hours, strengthening with time. The models
show decent agreement through 12z Thursday. Then, their solutions
depart. The GFS carries the energy (low) farther south across AR,
while the CMC takes it to the north into northern IL. The favored
EC lies in the middle with the low moving across southern MO, IL
and ending up over SW IN. At the surface, we should see our flow
turn E/ESE tonight through Wednesday with high pressure passing
north of the Great Lakes, and low pressure deepening over the
southern Plains. The low should take a northeast track across MO
and IL Thursday, Thursday night.

We expect a zone of elevated convection to move across our area
Wednesday, higher chances NW 1/2 (SEMO, SRN IL). Wednesday night,
the focus area will be from the MO Ozarks south into AR-east TX,
as a band of substantial convection is forecast to take shape and
move northeast overnight. Best chance PoPs will be after midnight.
Thursday and Thursday night, chances of convection will continue,
though actual coverage and mode will be more difficult to define
until we get closer to Thursday. The models show a chance of
strong to severe storms, anytime from early Thursday morning
(possibly with round one, if enough instability is present), and
especially through the day with destabilization (redevelopment).
Significant severe weather is possible just to our south. Will
have to monitor the northward extent of this enhanced risk region
over time. Chances for showers, storms will lower, though remain
for Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

A very dynamic split-flow pattern will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through the long term. Forecast confidence starts
off above average at the end of the week, but tapers to below
average early next week with substantial variability from model to
model and run to run.

The southern stream will remain active through the period as yet
another low pressure system is forecast to be positioned over the
Middle Mississippi Valley Friday morning. This low is expected to
shift east of the region during the day, taking any lingering shower
activity with it. In the wake of the low, somewhat cooler conditions
are forecast Friday and Saturday. This will bring temperatures down
to near seasonal levels.

Much of the weekend is looking dry at this point with models in good
agreement on building an upper level ridge east into the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys by Sunday. The core of the surface high should
remain well to our north as it moves across southeastern Canada.
Temperatures should moderate back into the 60s both weekend days--
possibly even approaching the 70 degree mark by Sunday.

By Sunday night and Monday, models differ on their handling of the
next area of low pressure forecast to push east from the Southern
and Central Plains. Unlike the ECMWF which attempts to phase the
northern and southern streams, both the GFS and Canadian are in
reasonable agreement in maintaining a cut off southern stream low.
As a consequence, the ECMWF brings the chance for precipitation back
into the area as early as Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, the
GFS holds off until Monday night, while the Canadian is so far south
with the low that it keeps the area dry early next week. Given this
uncertainty, we plan to stick with only small rain chances Sunday
night and Monday for now.


Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

VFR to occasional MVFR cigs expected today through tonight. NW
winds will become NE aob 10 kts.



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