Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







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