Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

For aviation discussion, and short term amendment to expand the
wind advisory another row of counties in southwest IN this

UPDATE Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Average to above average confidence in the short term due to
decent model agreement.

At the time of this writing, scattered showers were making their
way across much of our CWA as upper level energy taps into ever
increasing deep layer moisture.

Precipitation chances will increase across the region today as
stronger upper level energy taps into deeper moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front. The highest probability for precipitation
will begin late this morning and continue through the afternoon
hours. The front is expected to enter the far western sections of
our CWA early this afternoon and clear the far southeast sections
before midnight tonight. Precipitation chances will begin to
diminish from west to east this afternoon into the evening with the
passage of the front. Storm total rainfall with this event is
expected to be one to two inches, with the highest amounts over
parts of far southeast Missouri and far western Kentucky.

After a brief respite on Tuesday, the approach and passage of yet
another surface trough/front will combine with weak ripples of
energy in the southwest flow aloft to produce scattered showers
mainly over the southeast half of our CWA starting Tuesday evening
and ending by early Wednesday morning. Due to a relative lack of
moisture, only light precipitation amounts are expected. In the wake
of this system, high pressure at the surface is expected to keep
the region dry through the end of the period.

Temperatures through Tuesday night will be above normal, then
drop back to near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The long term forecast starts off with average confidence resulting
from decent overall model agreement. However, confidence plunges by
the weekend as substantial model variability comes into play.

Starting with Thursday, the forecast area will be on the south side
of a deep upper level low centered over southeastern Canada. This
low will continue to push eastward, allowing cool Canadian high
pressure to settle into the region. The end result will be a period
of dry weather with seasonably cool temperatures. The only concern I
have at the moment is that the model blend may be overly optimistic
with the cloud forecast over northern and eastern portions of the
area Thursday and Thursday night. If later model forecasts look
anything like the latest GFS, we may end up having to increase sky
cover during this time frame.

Models are not in very good agreement with the split flow pattern
that develops over the weekend. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all
depict a closed upper low over the southwestern U.S. on Friday. The
ECMWF brings the low across Texas Saturday night with strong
cyclogenesis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This would
result in a good chance for rain by the latter half of the weekend.

Meanwhile, the GFS and Canadian hold the cut-off low over the Gulf
of California for a couple days before ejecting east across the
southern Plains early next week. Given the uncertainty, the current
forecast represents a blend of the two schools of thought, with low
rain chances arriving to much of the area Saturday night and Sunday.
However, I would not place much confidence in this at the moment as
there are bound to be many changes to the extended forecast in the
coming days as models attempt to come to some kind of consensus.


Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

With the approach and passage of a surface front, the TAF sites
will see MVFR to occasional cigs/vsbys along with +shra and a
slim chance of TSRA through the first half of the period.
Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will gusts up to 25-35 knots
through 00Z, then drop off to AOB 10 knots as cigs/vsbys improve
to VFR once rains exit from west to east this evening aft 00Z.


IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ090-091-094.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ112-114.

IN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for INZ086>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KYZ001>022.



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