Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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798
FXUS63 KPAH 170501
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF WEST KY WITH AMOUNTS SINCE MIDNIGHT
1-2" IN A FEW SPOTS...MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 1". AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL SUFFICE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
ACTIVITY AND THE DOWNWARD TREND EXPECTED OVERALL. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING...DEFINITELY EFFICIENT NONE THE LESS GIVEN WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND SMALL CAPE. ALL THE MODELS POINT TO A DIMINISHING TREND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE THAT WE HAVE MONITORED
ON WVAPOR MOVING SLOWLY NE. THE RAP AND NAM WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED. WE CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN THE REST OF TODAY AS
WELL. THEY SHOULD FALL LITTLE TONIGHT WITH THE STAGNANT/HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW THE RULE.

SPC EXPANDED THEIR SLIGHT RISK AREA EAST DAY 2 INTO 1/2 OF THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND TEND TO DISAGREE. SURE
THERE COULD BE A FEW WARNINGS. BUT ENOUGH QUESTION MARKS EXIST.
THE NAM SUGGESTS A MIN CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ALREADY INTO THE
AREA AND BETTER DESTABILIZATION TO OUR WEST AND EAST. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW BETTER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN IF WE
DESTABILIZE... BETTER WIND FIELDS ARE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION. WILL KEEP
POPS HIGH CHANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE.
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE FRONT VERY
SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 TO 2/3 OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE IN
CONTROL. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A REFLECTION OF A SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH POSITIVE
LI`S AND LITTLE TO NO CAPE. ALTHOUGH SHOWALTERS IN VERY POSITIVE...K
INDEX VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT NOTHING IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH
WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD KCGI AT THIS
TIME...AND FIGURE THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 50KTS OF SSW WINDS AT 925MB ON THE KPAH 88-D VWP CERTAINLY
IS WORTHY OF A MENTION OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE
GUSTS AT KCGI...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IT THERE.

CONVECTION MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL PLANNING ON A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL THAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY TAIL END OF PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS PLAINS CONVECTION. PUSHED
IT BACK AN HOUR OR TWO...ESPECIALLY AT KEVV AND KOWB.

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MIXING
LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS 20-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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