Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241135

National Weather Service Paducah KY
535 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Issued at 535 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

The near term presents fairly high confidence with good model
agreement. A southerly low level flow will gradually increase
through the period as surface high pressure over the eastern U.S.
slowly shifts east with time. In the upper levels, a closed low
coming onshore near the Oregon-California border today will dig
into the Intermountain West through mid week. This will transition
the upper level flow pattern over the Heartland from zonal to
southwesterly. The overall impact through Wednesday night will be
continued dry and warmer conditions.

Models by and large keep most of the area dry on Thanksgiving Day.
The only exception would be across portions of southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois. But even there, any shower activity should
be very spotty and light. Precipitation chances increase markedly
from the west Thursday night with the approach of upper level
energy and a surface cold front. However, the main rain event will
hold off until just beyond the short term period.

A moderating trend will result in unseasonably warm conditions
through the period. Highs today are forecast to reach the upper
50s, then near 60 by Wednesday, and into the lower 60s Thanksgiving
Day. Lows should moderate from the upper 30s tonight into the
upper 40s Wednesday night, then into the 50s by Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

A consensus of the operational models and the ensemble mean
solutions from 12z yesterday and 00z this evening suggest a
very active pattern and period of unsettled weather in the
long term.

At the beginning of the period, a closed H5 low should be over the
Intermountain West, with broad SW flow aloft feeding into another
trof over east Canada into the Upper Midwest. A consensus of model
solutions shows this low will only move slowly east, keeping an
active WSW flow pattern over our area through 00z Sunday. Even at
12z Monday, the H5 low will likely be somewhere over the central

The reflective pattern at the surface suggests we will be milder
than previously forecast. Initially a surface front will move
through Friday afternoon and evening. The flow isn`t terribly strong
behind the front. And the trajectories eventually veer east with the
potential for a southerly component to develop. There are some
significant spreads in the forecast winds, so confidence there is
low. Overall, temperatures have been raised across the board, as
have gridded surface dew points. This trend has been established in
MOS, and off base model output. Meanwhile precipitation wise, expect
several rounds of rain showers Friday right on through the weekend.
Some decent rainfall totals are certainly possible, through drawn
out over at least a 3 day period. It`ll be something to watch.
Convective parameters once again look weak to nil.


Issued at 535 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through the forecast
period. Mid to high clouds will be scattered from time to time with
south/southeast winds AOB 10 knots.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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