Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242319
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Isolated convection will remain possible into early evening along
a weak boundary currently draped from southeast Missouri to
northwest Kentucky. Isolated convection will again be possible
Tuesday afternoon along this boundary, which should be situated a
little farther south. Included slight to low chance pops across
our southern third of counties for this time period.

The heat and humidity will remain a concern in the near term.
Heat indices Tuesday afternoon will reach the 100 to 105 degree
range across mainly southeast Missouri and far west Kentucky.
These heat index values will be widespread Wednesday afternoon,
with at least the west half of our area pushing heat advisory
criteria. We will continue to monitor the potential over the next
couple of model runs. We will be issuing an SPS discussing the
heat issues.

Models have been trending slower with the approach of our late
week cold front. We have backed off on the onset of convection
Wednesday night, and now only have some small chances entering
a small portion of our far northern counties late Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The overall forecast confidence is high.

The upper-level ridge will be suppressed to the west on Thursday as
a relatively strong upper storm system moves southeast through the
Great Lakes and Northeast. This will bring a cold front through our
region Thursday night. The front will provide a focus for
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night. Given the amount of heat
and humidity expected (heat indices near 100), along with the
forcing and increased flow aloft, a few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out near and ahead of the cold front Thursday
afternoon and night.

There is some debate amongst the 12Z models in how much convection
will linger over the southern half of the area Friday. The GFS keeps
convection through the day and even into Friday evening in the far
southeast, while the GEM and ECMWF have very little left even along
the southern border after 12Z Friday. Given the strength of the
front and upper trough, the faster/drier solution is preferred, but
we will have to keep some small PoPs in the forecast for Friday and
Friday evening just to accommodate the GFS solution.

The upper-level flow pattern for the weekend will feature a ridge
west, trough east arrangement which should keep our area dry and
much more pleasant through Monday. There has been some tendency,
especially in the GFS, to close off an upper low in the base of the
eastern trough. If this happens close enough to our area, some
scattered showers would be possible. At this time the chance is too
low to clutter the forecast with it.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Isolated late day convection may impact KCGI/KPAH for another hour
or two, will at least include vicinity mention as boundary sags
south and updrafts fire sporadically along it. Otherwise should
see dispersed clouds and maybe patchy fog restricting vsbys early
tmrw morning, with quick burnoff and a virtual repeat of today
again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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