Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180455
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Active convection today is largely diurnally influenced, and
should wane with sunset, but not necessarily go away altogether.
The synoptic scale cold front is close by, currently stretched
from near the the WI/IL border, where it is more baroclinically
oriented, and trailing into Missouri, where it becomes more
diffuse and parallel with the upper flow. Out ahead of the front,
in our FA, surface based Capes ranged from generally, 1300-2300
J/KG. These heat of day showers/storms will be primarily heavy
rainers, although there is a correlated lightning threat, with
detection instrumentation displaying this is more sporadic and
strictly concentrated in northwest most ptns FA.

Overall, the short term forecast requires little adjustment. The
front, already showing signs of distolysis, will continue to be
lifted northeastward, and its southern-most ptn here will
continue its identity loss in that process. Surface high pressure
in the Great Lakes, behind the front, will offer a relative pause
in wx later tonight-early tmrw, before another piece of energy
aloft moves within the now zonal flow pattern across the mid
Mississippi river valley, and activates the still summer like
airmass, perhaps on any lingering boundary/outflows, for small
shower/storm chances thru the remainder of the short term. This
will too be most pronounced with the diurnal aid of daytime
heating, and largely wane if not altogether with loss of that fuel
come nightfall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

A stagnant weather pattern is expected during the long term. A
narrow mid level ridge (700 to 500 mb layer) will extend from the
southern Plains northeast across the Ohio Valley to the eastern
Great Lakes. This ridge will provide warm and mainly dry conditions
through the period. Daytime highs will be mostly in the mid 80s with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

At the surface, high pressure will be quasi-stationary along the
Appalachian Mountains. This high will produce a light southeast to
south wind flow of humid air. A few isolated showers or storms could
not be ruled out, mainly in southern parts of the region. The lack
of organized forcing precludes more than a slight chance during any
given period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

VFR cigs and predominantly MVFR vsbys expected through 13z. After
13z, VFR conditions expected with gradually increasing shower
chances, with best chances from 18z to 02z. MVFR vsbys possible
with precipitation. Winds will be light to calm overnight,
becoming southwest around 5kt after 13z, then becoming light south
after 02z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST


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