Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161744
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1144 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Surface observations indicate the cold front currently extends
from just south of Owensboro Kentucky to just south of Cape
Girardeau to West Plains. The leading edge of the widespread
showers is right along the front. The front and precipitation will
continue to make slow southward progress into the morning hours.
The leading edge of the showers should make it to our far southern
counties by around 12z, and showers will taper off from north to
south from mid morning through early this afternoon. Additional
rainfall amounts are generally expected to be in the half inch to
one inch range.

Cold air follows close behind. Temperatures are expected to fall
into the 40s across all but southeast portions of the region by
daybreak. Temperatures will hold fairly steady or rise just a few
degrees today across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana, where there will be some afternoon sunshine,
while temperatures will continue to fall across much of west
Kentucky into this afternoon.  Dry conditions are expected late
this afternoon into this evening.

Models indicate the cold front and some moisture will lift back
northward late tonight. A light wintry mix will be possible in
southern portions of southeast Missouri and extreme southwest
Kentucky late tonight, and the wintry mix will spread north across
the PAH forecast area through the morning hours. Some light snow
accumulations of a dusting to a few tenths are possible, mainly in
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  By mid morning, the
precipitation will switch over to rain in southern portions of
west Kentucky and southeast Missouri, with the switch over to rain
reaching our northern counties by mid day. The rain should
eliminate any snow on the ground. Light rain will end from west to
east during the afternoon.

Dry conditions and near seasonal lows can be expected Saturday
night. High pressure will slide east of our region by 12z Sunday.
South winds will bring warmer air back into the region, and with
plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will be 8 to 10 degrees
above seasonal normals.

Models show low pressure over the Central Plains lifting a warm
front across our region Sunday night. Showers will develop and spread
north across the PAH forecast area Sunday evening, with widespread
showers expected late Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

he main concern next week remains heavy rainfall potential. A deep
southwest flow of moist air will persist throughout the week in the
mid levels of the atmosphere. A surface cold front will interact
with the deep moist layer to produce heavy rainfall. There could
also be some convective enhancement of rainfall ahead of the front,
where dew points will be in the lower 60s with marginal instability.

There are still significant model inconsistencies concerning the
timing and location of heavy rain. A subtropical 500 mb high off the
Carolina coast will peak around 594 dm early in the week. This
strong high will shunt the bulk of the moisture to the northwest of
the Ohio River early in the week. Most of the rainfall Monday and
Monday night will be related to warm moist advection. Amounts should
not be particularly heavy given the lack of strong dynamic forcing.

A more significant band of heavy rainfall is likely to precede a
cold front about mid-week. The models have generally slowed down the
front, especially the 00z ecmwf. The ecmwf delays the frontal
passage until Wednesday. The key player will be the strong 500 mb
high off the Carolina coast. A slower and stronger high would keep
the heaviest rain in se Missouri and southern Illinois, while a
weaker high would allow the heaviest rain to progress across the
Ohio River. Given the lack of model consistency, it is too early to
estimate where the heaviest rainfall axis will be located. The slow
movement of the front, a strong inflow of low level moisture, and
marginal instability all point to locally heavy rainfall.

Once the front passes, some drying is expected to occur by Thursday.
However, the persistent moist mid-level flow will keep a small
chance of rain in some areas even on Thursday. The front could even
begin a slow northward return on Thursday, as indicated by the gfs
ensemble mean.

High temperatures will likely fall from around 70 on Monday and
Tuesday to the 40s later in the week. There is even a possibility of
a brief change to light snow in parts of southern IL and southeast
MO as the precip ends. Little or no accumulation is expected, but it
would be a reminder of the season we are in.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Aside from some scattered light rain primarily over west KY, the
majority of the rain has push east of our area at midday. MVFR
cigs remain across the entire region, with the current forecast
reflecting a slower clearing then previously expected, and may not
be until late afternoon/early evening for many locations. Other
issue is gusty northerly winds around 20 kts or slightly higher
for the next several hours. Winds subside this evening/overnight
as the influence of high pressure to our north overspreads the
area. Another system looks to spread IFR/MVFR cigs from southwest
to northeast tomorrow morning, with the southern two thirds of
the region seeing the lowest restrictions. Rain will accompany
the lower cigs, along with MVFR vsbys and the potential at lower
vsbys in the heavier precipitation. Some potential at snow mixing
in, especially across the northern portions of southeast Missouri,
mainly northwest of KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SP



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