Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142105

305 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

The primary weather feature of interest in the short term is a
strong upper-level low that will move northeast from Kansas
tonight to the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday night. The
associated cold front will sweep east across our region on Monday
evening. Most of the rain with this system will be associated with
the southerly low level jet, well ahead of the cold front.

As far as the details, this evening will remain dry and mild. The
clearing trend has slowed down near the Mississippi River this
afternoon. However, it should continue to make slow northeast
progress as low-level winds continue to increase. The clearing
will not be long-lived as extensive mid and high cloudiness
overspreads our region from the west later tonight.

The models are in good agreement on the leading edge of the rain,
which should reach the Mississippi River around 12z. The leading
edge should overspread the remainder of the forecast area between
12z and 18z. The heaviest and most concentrated rainfall is expected
with the initial surge of moisture late tonight and Monday
morning. Amounts are forecast to be less than one-half inch. There
may be a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon over western
KY. The NAM hourly Bufkit soundings indicate a few hours of
elevated weak instability between 16z and 20z at kpah and khop.

As the front crosses our region Monday night, precipitation will
end from west to east. Winds may be rather gusty behind the front.
NAM and GFS model soundings show a post-frontal mixed layer
containing westerly winds around 25 knots Monday evening.

Tuesday will be breezy and cooler as high pressure builds
southeast from the northern Plains. Temps should remain in the
40s. Any substantial clearing should hold off until late in the
day or Tuesday night. Both NAM and GFS model soundings keep low
clouds in at kpah most of the day Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

Very active period expected throughout the extended portion of the
forecast, but forecast confidence is very low in the impact on our

First of all enjoy Wednesday, as that may be the only sunny day next
week. The medium range models still cannot agree on whether or not
we will have any precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday, let it
alone what type of precipitation it may be. The same can be said for
Friday into Saturday.

There are a lot of moving parts in both of these time periods, and
there is little reason to expect any one model to lock in on a
solution. About all that can be done at this point is to keep PoPs
generally at chance levels through the period and mention the
possibilities for precipitation type.

I would not expect the models to get a clue much more than 48 hours
out, so will just have to be patient and be prepared to adjust to
what eventually does happen. The potential does exist for a portion
of the area to get some tangible snowfall, but I wouldn`t want to
bet on when and where at this point.


Issued at 1132 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

At the kevv/kowb sites, cigs and vsbys were stuck in the lifr
category all morning. It now appears possible these sites could stay
ifr through the entire taf period, per the latest gfs lamp mos
guidance. However, the forecast will maintain the improving trend
but at a much slower pace, as shown by the nam mos. This means
tonight and most of Monday morning should be mvfr.

At the kcgi/kpah sites, the clearing line has been surprisingly fast
across southeast Missouri. It now appears kcgi will be mainly clear
through this evening. The clearing line looks like it will stall
near kpah late this afternoon, so the forecast is very tough there.
Will maintain a forecast of vfr cigs there tonight, but mvfr vsbys
are likely late tonight. Both sites will go ifr in the morning as
rain arrives.




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