Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 132211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather
Service Louisville KY
410 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Active weather is in store for the region through the short term
period with multiple round of rain expected. For this afternoon,
clouds have cleared or at least become scattered for most. However,
they will be on the increase again tonight as moisture advects in
from the south and west and a shortwave approaches. Rain showers
will develop to the south and spread across the Heartland after
midnight. These showers will diminish through the morning hours
Wednesday from west to east. Rainfall amounts up to half an inch
will be possible with this activity.

There looks to be a relative lull in precipitation Wednesday night
into Thursday, though scattered showers will still be possible.
Thursday is expected to be warm and breezy. Sustained winds of 15-20
mph with gusts to 30 mph are expected. This will drive high
temperatures into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

More widespread precipitation is then expected to develop Thursday
night and continue into the morning hours on Friday as a strong cold
front moves through. High temperatures on Friday may be in the
morning for many with temps falling into the 30s through the
afternoon hours. The rainfall should come to and end by Friday
afternoon. Another half an inch to an inch of rain will be possible
with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The unsettled patter will continue through the long term period.
Forecast confidence through the weekend is a bit on the lower side.
The operational runs of the European and Canadian models advertise
rain moving in from the south early Saturday and continuing through
the day. The operational GFS keeps everything suppressed to the
Tennessee Valley, but the ensembles show varying amounts of
precipitation possible. Given the uncertainty, will keep low pops in
through the weekend. If this does pan out, there could be a brief
wintry mix during the overnight hours, but this should have little
impact as temps will warm above freezing during the day.

More widespread rainfall then looks to develop and move in from the
southwest on Monday into Tuesday. This could bring another
potentially soaking round of rain. With all the rain falling over
the area and upstream, flooding of rivers will continue to be an
issue into next week.


Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft have been prevalent this morning at the
TAF sites. However, latest visible satellite imagery shows that
these clouds are lifting slowly northward and gradually eroding.
Therefore, low clouds should scatter out this afternoon, first at
CGI and PAH, later at EVV and OWB. Additional clouds around 5000 ft
are moving northeast at the same time over AR and southwest MO, and
these should eventually affect most of the TAF sites later today
and/or this evening. Surface winds this afternoon will remain or
become southerly around 5 kts.

For tonight, a weather disturbance will quickly head northeastward
toward the region. Low IFR ceilings will return from SW to NE mainly
after midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers also are expected
overnight and into the first half of the day on Wednesday. A modest
reduction in visibility to MVFR should occur as well. Once ceilings
go down again, they will stay that way through the end of the
forecast period. Not out of the question there could be some LIFR
ceilings from time to time.




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