Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130545
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Front continues to push south across west KY late this afternoon.
Some surface based instability hasn`t been enough to get any
convection of note going. Still a far amount of elevated shower
activity behind the front, with some models depicting elevated
instability. Overall, mainly showers into the evening with best
chances shifting south with time, slowly. Late tonight, light
rain chances pick back up into SEMO, then toward SW IL by
daybreak, with surface temps by then below freezing.

Freezing Rain Advisory is out. Based on local script calculations
that incorporate a few wx elements, qpf and the FRAM aspect, final
grids yield 1/10th, to 1/4 inch ice accumulations in the Advisory
area. Still looking at areas from Wayne and Bollinger Counties,
northeast to Perry County MO, Jackson and Perry counties in IL as
the area that may receive the most ice. 1/4" is the threshold for
a warning. Will monitor closely overnight to see if any of the
models generate more QPF than is forecast. The NAM is a tad
concerning, even farther east into southern IL. So a few more
forecast adjustments may be required. But this gets the headline
and message going. At this point, 0.25 vs. 0.30 or slightly higher
isn`t going to result in any real change in resultant impacts. We
continue to favor the NAM/ECMWF colder temp solutions. Chances on
Friday will lift north by afternoon, and above 32F air will start
to work west from SW IN and NW KY about this time. From 00z-03z
Friday night, any of the remainder of the area at 32F should rise
above. We still anticipate most of west KY to be all rain, with
slightly lower PoPs (save for the EVV tri-state west KY
counties). Will be a close call for counties along the Ohio River
for a few hours.

After a down tick in PoPs Friday night, rain chances increase
again Saturday as upper level energy moves east across the area.
Best chances shift north Saturday night. It will be a chilly rain,
but temperatures will be above freezing NW sections.

Noles

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

The main focus in the long-term is a storm system that will likely
bring a round of heavy rainfall early next week. The pattern will
remain unsettled due to a persistent deep trough over the
southwestern states.

On Sunday, weakening high pressure over the Great Lakes will
maintain a chilly east to northeast wind. Highs will be mainly in
the 40s, except lower 50s in southwest KY. Some light rain or
drizzle will continue until the warm front passes Sunday night.

Following the warm front passage on Sunday night, a potent 500 mb
low will eject northeastward across the Plains states. The
associated surface low pressure system will track northeast across
central or western Missouri during Monday. This system will likely
spread showers across our region on Monday.

A cold front trailing southward from the low will cross part of our
region on Tuesday. The front will slow down as it encounters a
persistent upper-level ridge over the Southeast. A deep southerly
flow of Gulf moisture with some Caribbean connection will feed
plenty of moisture into the frontal zone. A 50-knot flow at 850 mb
will bring weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
thunder. Dew points in the lower 60s will likely nose into far
southeast Missouri and western Kentucky ahead of the front. The
setup still appears favorable for heavy rain, and storm-total qpf
around 2 inches looks like a reasonable first guess from Monday
through Tuesday night.

The forecast for Wednesday through Thursday is becoming wetter due
to the possibility of another 500 mb impulse ejecting northeast from
the western USA longwave trough. This shortwave is likely to be
weaker and much further east than the first system. The majority of
the model guidance keeps the heaviest rain east of our region,
closer to a stalled frontal boundary. Pops will be in the likely
category Wednesday for west KY and sw Indiana, tapering to low
chance pops on Thursday. High temps will cool down into the 50s
behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Little change to the overall thinking for the 06Z TAFs, with the
exception of keeping showers in the first few hours of the
forecast. Could still see a brief period of IFR conditions with
this activity, otherwise, MVFR ceilings should prevail for the
overnight period. As more solid rains overspread the area in the
morning, ceilings will trend downward. Once the main band of rain
moves north of the region, drizzle and fog should keep IFR or LIFR
conditions going through the afternoon and possibly into the
evening, as moisture is trapped beneath a very low-level
inversion. Will continue to limit FZRA mention to KCGI through
about 21Z when they should climb back above freezing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freezing Rain Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for ILZ080-
     081-084>086-088>094.

     Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for
     ILZ075>078-082-083-087.

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>111.

IN...Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for INZ081-
     082-085>087.

KY...Freezing Rain Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for KYZ014-
     018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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