Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 251153
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LONG-AWAITED WARM FRONT IS FINALLY TRAVERSING THE EVANSVILLE
TRI STATE...LEAVING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S IN ITS WAKE.
THERE IS ALSO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF SORTS FROM KMDH TO KMVN AS OF
08Z. AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION
LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AND VEER
TO NEARLY DUE WEST IN THE MORNING. THIS COULD PUSH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.

THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE IS TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNSET. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
ACTION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AROUND 00Z.

THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THE HEAVY RAINS
WILL SUBSIDE AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z...AND
THEN THE SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP SOUTHEAST EDGE TO THE RAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF WEST
KENTUCKY STAY DRY THROUGH 06Z.

THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL TINKERING WOULD BE TO EXTEND IT EASTWARD ALONG
I-64...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THAT
POSSIBILITY.

NOT SURE ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THINK THAT SPC IS ON
THE RIGHT TRACK WITH JUST A MARGINAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
A SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. FIGURE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE EARLY ON IN THE EVENT IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...BEFORE/AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG/NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF WET OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND THEN THE
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW. MORE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
OUR DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND CARVE OUT A DEEPER...LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH OVER OR JUST EAST OF OUR REGION BY FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE 00Z MODELS GENERATE SOME SPLOTCHES OF LIGHT QPF IN
DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT GFS SOUNDINGS OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD SUPPORT SOME STRATOCU
FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
OFF THE SURFACE FOR SNOW...BUT NOT SURE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO GET PRECIPITATION. JUST NOT SURE ABOUT
MEASURABLE...OR WHERE THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE TODAY...THE
WARMER END OF THE RANGE WOULD BE PREFERRED. CONSIDERED GOING WITH
A NON-DIURNAL RANGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE DIURNAL TOOL
GIVES A VERY FLAT CURVE WHICH SHOULD SUFFICE. HIGHS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEEL QUITE COLD FOR LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE US UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  ECMWF AND
CANADIAN BOTH BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI ON SATURDAY, AND KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING. BASED
ON MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, MODELS KEEP US
DRY AND CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AS A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST.  WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S.

MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GFS
BEING THE FASTEST AND SHOWING IT MOVING THROUGH DRY.  ECMWF AND
CANADIAN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE, AND WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF COUNTIES ON MONDAY.  BY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON RAIN CHANCES,
BUT SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER.  WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY FOR
NOW.  THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REALLY COOL THINGS OFF,
AND WINDS ONLY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH.  WITH THE INCREASING SUN
ANGLE, THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY, AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A PERIODIC MVFR CEILING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH
THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OR LIFT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...BUT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING...AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE WIND
FORECAST OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF AND THE
COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE INITIAL BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET UP NORTHWEST OF ALL SITES
THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST BRINGING AT
LEAST MVFR RAINS TO ALL SITES IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
FEW HOURS OF THUNDER IS A GOOD BET AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION AT EACH SITE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088.

MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS



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