Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
951 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

The latest HRRR and the 00Z NAM bring light precipitation right to
the TN border areas around 12Z. Decided to spread the slight
chance PoPs a bit farther north at that time, just to give it a
bit wider berth. A look at 18Z GFS and 00Z NAM soundings near KHOP
indicate that the column should be cool enough for snow. The only
potential issue is whether the saturation and lift will be deep
enough to actually have active ice nucleation. With a persistent
northeast wind and thickening cloud cover in that area overnight,
surface temperatures should remain just above freezing. Added a
slight chance of light snow in those areas to go along with the
light rain previously mentioned through the morning hours Friday.
Accumulations still look doubtful through the morning hours.


UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Forecast confidence is increasing that the system brushing our
south/east areas Friday aftn/Friday evening should NOT pose much of
an impact to our forecast area. Models are in decent agreement now
with both the qpf and thermal fields over the southern Pennyrile
region of western KY. This looks to be a high POP/low qpf
event...and will likely be mostly on the liquid side...esp
during the day Friday. Even if weak cold air advection aloft can
switch the precip to light snow early in the evening, sfc temps
should remain above freezing until the precip comes to an end
before midnight.

Not much cold air to follow either. In fact, winds will become
more westerly, then southwesterly Sat/Sat night as a clipper
system drops se into the western Great Lakes region. Most
locations will top out in the mid to upper 40s Saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

There is very little change in the long term forecast. A
clipper type low pressure system will move southeast across the
Great Lakes region Sunday and Sunday night, possibly bringing a
little rain or mixed rain and snow. Dry and colder weather is
expected Monday through Wednesday, followed by milder southwest
winds ahead of the next front Thursday.

As far as the daily details...
On Sunday...expect a southwest wind flow of milder air ahead of a
cold front moving southeast across Illinois and Missouri. Some light
rain showers are possible ahead of the front as a 500 mb shortwave
brushes past our region. Higher qpf will likely be confined to areas
near the shortwave trough over the upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region.

On Sunday night...winds will shift into the northwest with the
passage of the surface front. Any lingering precip could end as
light snow showers late at night.

Monday through Tuesday will be dry and colder. The 12z gfs mos high
temps appear too warm considering the gfs has 850 mb temps around
minus 5. The colder ecmwf mos appears more reasonable. Either way,
there will be a decent temp gradient from northeast to southwest
across our region. Highs both days should be about 10 degrees colder
over southwest Indiana than the Ozark foothills. Expect enough
cloudiness to keep highs mainly in the upper 30s in southwest
Indiana. There should be more sun over Missouri, which should allow
temps to reach the upper 40s there.

On Wednesday...high pressure will be located over the Ohio Valley,
bringing dry conditions with highs in the 40s.

On Thursday...rather gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of a
strong cold front approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. Except for the
12z ecmwf, the models indicate moisture will be too limited for
pre-frontal showers. This forecast will be dry for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MVFR decks may affect some airports across swrn IN and adjacent srn
IL for the evening, otherwise VFR cigs are expected. A light nrly
sfc wind will prevail. The KPAH TAF may be affected by pcpn late in
the period. For now the TAF has light snow after 20Z but this may
start as rain. Further adjustments will be made for the 06Z TAFs.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DB






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