Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261142 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to minor model disagreement
with two systems affecting the area.

At the time of this writing, a surface/upper low combo was located
just to the north and west of our CWA and is forecast to move
northeast today toward the Great Lakes region. A N-S cold front from
the low was bisecting our CWA. Scattered showers were noted on radar
generally along and east of the front.

In the wake of the frontal passage this morning, precipitation
chances will slowly diminish from the southwest throughout the day.
The boundary is forecast to become W-E and quasi-stationary along
and/or near our southern CWA border by late this afternoon.

CWA-wide dry conditions will not last for long however.
Precipitation chances will begin to overspread the region late
tonight from the west as the quasi-stationary frontal boundary lifts
back to the north as a warm front in response to a system emerging
from the southern plains moves toward the region. Precipitation
chances max out Monday into Monday evening as the system crosses the
region. The back edge of the precipitation associated with this
system should be exiting our CWA late Monday night.

Beyond that, high pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft
should keep the region dry through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will generally be 8 to 12 degrees above normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The ECMWF takes our next low pressure system across northern
portions of the PAH forecast area Thursday night, while the GFS
takes it farther south and the Canadian moves it well north of our
region.  A few showers may sneak into our far west counties
Wednesday morning, but models all spread significant precipitation
across the PAH forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Went with likely to categorical pops Thursday into Thursday night
across the entire area.  With current low confidence in the track of
the low, just how much thunder we will see is in question, but for
now went with slight chances mainly during the day Thursday.
Temperatures will be above normal through the end of the work week,
especially overnight lows.

Precipitation chances will taper off from west to east Friday into
Friday night as the low moves well east of our area.  Models show
surface high pressure building southward as an upper level ridge
moves over the middle Mississippi River valley. This will give us
dry and near seasonal conditions for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

With the passage of a frontal boundary today expect VFR/MVFR
cigs/vsbys for the first 4-6 hours, then VFR. SHRA possible at
KEVV/KOWB for the first 2-3 hours. Southerly winds generally AOB 5
knots will become gusty after 15Z, then diminish to AOB 5 knots
around sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RST


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