Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172344
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

An axis of elevated instability over the Lower Ohio Valley this
afternoon has been the breeding ground for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This instability is forecast to shift slowly
southward into Tennessee this evening. A few thunderstorms will
continue to generate within this area as a 500 mb jet streak dives
southeast from the western Great Lakes. The activity will move
south of the Tennessee border by midnight as a surface cold front
moves southeast across our region.

On Saturday, surface high pressure over the Plains will produce
breezy and cooler conditions. The models continue to indicate a
strong thermal gradient over our region. Highs will range from
around 50 in southwest Indiana to the mid 60s in the Ozark
foothills. A shield of cold-advection low cloudiness will rotate
southeast across southeast IL, southwest Indiana, and northwest KY
during the day. The potential for cloud cover in that area may
reinforce the thermal gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley.

The surface high will pass directly over the Wabash Valley on Sat
night. The combination of clear skies and light winds should allow
temps to fall below freezing in some areas, mainly north and east
of kpah. In light of our recent hard freezes, these near-freezing
temps are unlikely to have much additional impact on vegetation.

Clouds will begin to arrive Sunday and Sunday night associated
with mid-level warm advection. Some warm advection showers may
develop Sunday night, mainly north and west of the Ohio River.
Highs will generally be in the upper 50s Sunday, with lows in the
40s Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Below average confidence in the long term due to poor model
agreement and multiple precipitation events.

The long term period is a mess. There are multiple possibilities for
precipitation through the period and in all but one six hour period
precipitation is possible over all or part of our CWA, depending on
which model you believe.

I will attempt to provide a general synopsis of the period, not each
and every potential outcome by model. Precipitation chances increase
Monday into Monday night with the approach and passage of a cold
front. Whether or not the front hangs up just south of our area will
determine how rain chances pan out on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
Late Tuesday night into Wednesday high pressure to the north may
suppress rain chances across all but the far southwest corner of our
CWA.

Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances begin to increase from
southwest to northeast with the approach and passage of a warm front
associated with a developing system over the plains. The one and
only dry period at this time appears to be Thursday evening while
our region is in the warm sector with weak ridging aloft.

With the approach of a cold front associated with the aforementioned
system, rain chances begin to increase from the west Thursday night
into Friday.

Temperatures will remain with a few degrees of normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 0640 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Will keep MVFR cigs/vsbys (IFR up from near KEVV/KOWB) through
03-04Z...then allow VFR conditions thereafter as a cold front
finally pushes southeast through the region and winds shift from
the sw to the nw by 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM



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