Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180455

1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 847 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Made some adjustments to the low temperature forecast to account
for the cloud mass that will continue to stream through the
Evansville Tri State through much of the night. Not sure where the
back/southwest edge of these clouds will be, but where the clouds
persist it will be a milder night with lows well into the 50s.
Figure there will be enough wind in the Tri State area to keep
temperatures from plummeting too quickly when clear patches pass
by. The latest RAP seemed to have a reasonable idea with the
clouds` impact on temperatures, so used it as a guide for this update.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A dry cold front was crossing our region this afternoon, accompanied
by a gradual wind shift into the northwest. This front will be
followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend. The surface high
pressure center will cross the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. Nearly
calm winds and clear skies Sunday morning could allow for the
formation of a little frost. Forecast low temps for Saturday night
will be closer to the cooler mos guidance than the allblend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Main challenge is with Monday`s forecast. After that, high and dry
regardless of model choice. The GFS seems to be an outlier model
for Monday, from much deeper with the h5 trof moving across the
Great Lakes and Midwest, to its higher overall moisture forecast.
The NAM/SREF/GEM and ECMWF are much drier, and also not as intense
with the westward extension of the trof axis. A slight chance PoP
for isolated showers is no big deal to carry, and we are
essentially surrounded by at least 20s percent (with our
neighboring offices). The dynamics, despite marginal moisture are
respectable. Having said that, most areas may not see a thing
(rainfall wise) as the system and its associated frontal boundary
move through.

After that, high pressure will eventually take control, as a mid
level low moves across the east U.S. (favored model per WPC is an
ECMWF/ECMWF mean blend). Will probably see wrap around cu/strato-
cu Tuesday, especially east of the Mississippi. Rest of the week,
not much in the way of cloud cover as deeper layer drying takes
place. Lots of 60s for highs and 40s for lows.


Issued at 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Low VFR ceilings will continue to brush southeast by KEVV and KOWB
overnight. A sharp upper-level trough will dive southeast through
the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
As a result, a large area of lower VFR clouds will descend on the
KEVV and KOWB areas Saturday. Guidance is indicating that a period
of MVFR ceilings will be a strong possibility around midday at
KOWB. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some MVFR conditions at KEVV,
too. Elsewhere...more scattered cu are expected. Northwest winds
will gust into the teens at times throughout the area Saturday.




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