Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160814
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Some patchy dense fog has already developed mainly over the
Pennyrile this morning, but not certain how widespread it will get
with a light south wind persisting in that area. Dense Fog
Advisories have been hoisted just to our east and southeast, but
will continue to monitor here for now. Will have patchy to areas
of Dense Fog in the grids and will mention in the HWO as a first
attempt to address the potential.

An MCV over southwest Missouri is forecast to drift eastward
through our region this afternoon and evening. The 00Z models and
later CAM data do not generate much convection with this feature
through our forecast area. The most consistent signal is for a
cluster of storms to develop by early afternoon over the Boot
Heel or northeast Arkansas and then dive southeast. Certainly
cannot rule out this development a bit farther north into
southeast Missouri, but isolated convection is about as much as
can be expected this afternoon/evening for most of the area.

Will keep PoPs at 20-30% beginning around midday in the west, and
then shift a zone of mainly slight chance PoPs slowly eastward
into the evening. The surface airmass will be hot and juicy, so
cannot rule out a storm or two briefly becoming strong, but very
localized heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary
concerns this afternoon and evening, if anything develops at all.

The focus for PoPs Saturday through Saturday night will be across
the northern half of the region. Much of the 00Z guidance brings
an MCS southeast through eastern Missouri and into our region
Saturday morning. Any such system should be on its last legs by
the time it reaches our area, so PoPs will only be 20-30% again,
with no PoPs in the south.

SPC has included roughly the northwest half of our region in a
Marginal Risk of severe in its Day 2 outlook for Saturday night.
The southern portion of a progressive eastward-moving MCS may sag
into the area with a damaging wind threat, but this would likely
be more of a heavy rainfall threat with an east-west oriented line
of convection. This system will also be weakening as it moves
farther south through the region overnight.

The associated outflow boundary is likely to become the active
boundary for convective development on Sunday. SPC has west
Kentucky and far southern portions of southeast Missouri in a
Marginal Risk of severe weather for Sunday, but figure the more
intense convection will be east and south of our region.

The 00Z models emphasize our southern border areas for some
decent QPF Sunday into Sunday night. Even as the boundary sags
into TN, there should be plenty of elevated instability to keep
things going with the tail end of the primary mid/upper-level
trough swinging through the area Sunday night. Storm total QPF
from Saturday night through Sunday night is near an inch from
Fulton county eastward through Todd county.

With plenty of sunshine expected today, highs should be able to
climb back into the lower 90s over most of the area, with heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s. Dewpoints are forecast to hold
well into the lower 70s on Saturday, so if convective debris does
not obscure the sun for too long, heat indices may reach triple
digits with highs in the low 90s again. Will highlight the
Saturday heat in the HWO. A cool down of some extent is expected
Sunday, but the range of MOS is fairly large for a day 3 forecast
in mid Summer.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

High confidence early in the period, with somewhat less confidence
in timing and track of weak disturbances in the flow by mid to late
week.

Dry, less humid, and somewhat cooler weather will be in place to
start the period as surface high pressure moves in. Dewpoints will
drop into the upper 50s/lower 60s through Tuesday before gradually
rebounding by mid week. Upper level heights will slowly rise through
much of the week. This will cause temperatures to moderate from the
low to mid 80s on Monday back around 90/low 90s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Humidity levels will also increase with heat index values
likely rising well into the 90s by Thursday.

Looks like most of the area may remain dry until late in the week.
However, weak ripples in the W/NW flow, may result in some spotty
precip as early as Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday and
Thursday. The best potential at this looks to be across our northern
counties, where slight PoPs are in place for a few periods. It
appears better rain chances may return to the region just outside
this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

MVFR vsbys due to fog, possible late tonight. Otherwise VFR
conditions with calm winds tonight, light south winds Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SP



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