Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221756 AAA

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Issued at 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Above average confidence in the short term period due to decent
model agreement and very little to discuss.

At the time of this writing post frontal cloudiness is clearing the
eastern sections of our CWA. Beyond that high pressure at the
surface and rising heights aloft will keep the region dry through
the period. By the end of the short term period southerly flow on
the back side of the high and winds aloft becoming southwest will
begin to advect moisture back across the area but not enough to
produce precipitation anywhere in our area.

Temperatures starting off well below normal will moderate back to
near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Higher than average confidence starts off the long term with good
agreement among model solutions. Small timing differences lower
confidence slightly by late week, but not enough to throw much doubt
on the outlook for a wet first half of the extended holiday weekend.

An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest Monday
night is forecast to dig into the Intermountain West by mid week.
The low will eventually phase with the main upper level trough over
Canada by late week. Successive perturbations ejecting east from the
low will bring more clouds and eventually rain to the area by mid to
late week.

Until then, dry weather is forecast to persist over much of the
region through Wednesday night. The only exception would be if a
stray shower made it far enough east to impact the Ozark foothills
of southeast Missouri, but chances of that appear low at this point.

Slight timing differences aside, forecast models have come into
better agreement over the last 24 hours with respect to rain chances
Thanksgiving Day and Night. The consensus signal is that much of
southeast Missouri and at least southwest Illinois may end up seeing
some rain by Thanksgiving afternoon, while the rest of the area may
remain dry until rain moves in Thanksgiving Night.

The likelihood for rain showers peaks on Friday before showing some
sign of coming to an end on Saturday. Largely positive showalter
indices and a moist adiabatic thermal profile should limit the
potential for thunder. Climatologically high precipitable water
content in excess of 1.5 inches by Friday signals heavy rain as the
main concern once again with this system.

Both the GFS and ECMWF shift the precipitation south and east of the
area late Friday night and Saturday with the passing cold front. Dry
weather looks to take hold for the latter half of the weekend as
another Canadian air mass builds in.

Temperatures are forecast to moderate to above seasonal norms
through Thanksgiving Day, with readings near the 60 degree mark on
Thanksgiving. Sharply colder conditions should follow in the wake of
the frontal passage next weekend.


Issued at 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period, with very
dry air in place. As a ridge axis of high sfc pressure moves by
today, winds will be generally light and variable. In the evening,
winds are forecast to turn to the south but remain light. After
sunrise Mon, the pressure gradient will tighten a bit in response to
a sfc trof moving by to the north, veering the sfc winds further to
the sw. Sustained speeds by the end of the period could be up to 12
kts at KEVV/KOWB.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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