Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 021715
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A HUGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AND WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
WITH NOTHING TO DISPLACE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A NON-STOP
BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. KNOWING THE NORTHERN AND/OR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL A BIT DICEY AS ONLY THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD. BEYOND THAT THERE IS QUITE A VARIANCE. EVEN WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF GETTING WET WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF.

WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING.

WE CONTINUE TO LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINED ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS. IN CONTRAST
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SET I INTRODUCED A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH LAY JUST
UPSTREAM AND COULD BRING STORMS BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY WITH MAX
HEATING. LEFT A SLGT CHC IN MONDAY NIGHT BUT MAY BE ABLE TO DRY THAT
OUT AS WELL...IF WE CAN ESTABLISH SOME CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS. AS
WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ALMOST A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO TRANSPORT ANY SMOKE FROM THE CANADA FIRES OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW EXPECTED VALUES AND
LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HANDLE WITH VICINITY MENTIONS IN
THE FORECAST AND UPDATE IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLIES AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT AND LOWER CIGS. INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
CHANCE OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNKNOWN COVERAGE ASPECT LEADS TO LEAVING OUT ANY
MENTION BEYOND 00Z FOR NOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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