Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
252 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Increasing confidence in the short term as models begin to come into
better agreement.

Small chances for showers and a couple of elevated thunderstorms
mainly this afternoon over the southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky as weak upper level energy taps into lingering lower
tropospheric moisture there.

Tonight with the region being in the warm sector and plenty of
convective inhibition, it should remain dry. Chances for showers and
storms enter the forecast again on Thursday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. The combination of the front, surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, and 0-6 KM bulk shear of 40-50
knots may produce a severe thunderstorm or two. The main limiting
factor will be lack of upper support.

The front is forecast to become quasi-stationary just south of our
region Thursday night, and with weak upper level energy passing
across the area, chances for showers and storms continue. Chances
for showers and storms steadily increase Friday into Friday night as
a storm system lifting northeast out of the southern plains takes
aim on the lower Ohio valley. Models are slightly different on the
timing and track of this system, but any of the current solutions
will make for a wet introduction to the weekend.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Models are now indicating a more southerly track to our early
weekend system which means severe weather chances should be mainly
to our south.

At 12Z Saturday, the sfc low is situated over NW Arkansas
and then shifts east during the day into west TN. Models have not
honed in on the where the best chances for convection will be during
the morning hours but good chances for rain will exist across the
entire region. However, by Saturday afternoon, the highest chances
will be in parts of western KY, as the sfc low moves into central TN
by 00Z Sunday. Some hefty QPF amounts are being advertised in parts
of west KY as well. Right around 00Z Sunday is when the dry slot
will be impacting parts of our region, although models are still not
exactly in agreement on how far north it makes it. Whatever lull
there may be in the action late afternoon or early evening, will be
replaced by additional shower chances during the rest of the evening
as the upper level low associated with this system moves overhead.

After midnight, rain chances will decrease substantially and be
confined to mainly western KY. By Sunday morning, only a small
chance for rain will linger in the southern Pennyrile region of west
KY with decreasing cloudiness from northwest to southeast occurring
with sunny conditions everywhere by afternoon.

Given the more southerly track of this system, the better sfc
moisture stays to our south. Dewpoints barely reach into the mid 50s
across our southern areas. Highs on Saturday will struggle to reach
the mid 50s up north and creep into the low 60s across southern MO
and west KY. Have trimmed thunder chances to just out southern
areas. Instability parameters are just not as impressive up in our
area as they are further south. Will continue to watch however.

High pressure settles over the area on Monday which means dry
conditions, light winds and actually warmer conditions as upper
level heights rise. Dry weather and highs in the low to mid 70s
look to stay with us through the early part of the new work week.


Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Not much change from the previous forecasts. Still not confident
about low cloud/fog forecast overnight into Wednesday. There are
some scattered clouds around 2500ft near KOWB, so played the MVFR
ceiling there, but went with MVFR fog elsewhere. Low clouds would
seem to be a better bet farther south through Kentucky, so KPAH
would be the next most likely place to see a low ceiling in lieu
of fog. The forecasts are all MVFR. A thick cu field is still
expected through the afternoon, but the clouds should be at VFR
levels regardless of whether they are scattered or broken. South
winds will kick in by midday and some gusts into the teens are a
decent bet, especially where the cu field is not so thick.




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