Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 220418
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1117 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY AS A COLD FRONT MAKES
PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL DISSOLVE AS IT DOES SO...BUT STILL RESULT IN SHIFTING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH. ALSO AT PLAY WILL BE A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT-
TMRW. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE ITS CLOUDINESS ADVANCING AS FAR NORTH AS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA DOORSTEP NOW...AND THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN THRU THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL NICE DAY TMRW WITH JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AND TEMPS RUNNING THRU MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

THIS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND KEEPS ITS
PRECIPITATING MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PERTURBATION
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AFFECTS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY MONDAY. WE ARE EFFECTIVELY
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND WHILE WE CAN ARGUABLY
HAVE A SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE POP IN OUR FAR NORTH OR FAR SOUTH
CLOSEST TO THESE TWO PASSING SYSTEMS...WE NONETHELESS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY/EFFECTIVELY DRY THRU THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

ON TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND MAKES PASSAGE...AND WITH IT
MAY COME SOME WAA RELATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/COLD FRONT THEN SETS UP TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
STREAMS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP
POPS AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THIS WILL INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SHOWS UP MAINLY IN THE WED PM-EVENING TIME FRAME. AFTER
THAT...FROPA AND STEADY RAIN FOR WED NIGHT...WHILE THE MEAN LONG
WAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DIVE PIECES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...PROBABLY RESULTING IN A LINGERING
MORE NUISANCE TYPE CHANCE OF PCPN AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE
CALL ON MVFR VSBYS AT KPAH AND KCGI BEFORE DAYBREAK. ENE WINDS AOB
10 KTS SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. MAYBE FEW-SCT LOWER
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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