Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 150444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

It should be another crisp, cool night, even as High pressure
gradually migrates to the east. Humidity does start to increase in
the column tmrw, as the next weather system takes shape and makes
an approach, and light return flow slys or swlys develop. The
forcing and moisture are so weak, however, that the approach, and
passage, of this system, now slated to be in the Monday-Monday
nite time frame primarily, do not warrant any more than a slgt
chance mention 20 PoP.

Low temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight, and again
after this system passages, Tuesday night. Monday night, clouds
and waa will allow for lows to moderate thru the 50s, or even near
60 for some srn locales. Highs each day will be mainly in the 70s,
with Monday being the warmest, out ahead of the approaching front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A tranquil autumn-like pattern will persist through much of the long
term. A northwest flow pattern will persist into Friday with high
pressure ridging over the western U.S. and an upper level trough in
the east. At the surface, the core of high pressure will migrate
across southeastern Canada into the Great Lakes and northeastern
U.S. through the latter half of the week. As a result, mainly dry
conditions and below normal temperatures are expected. Models do
suggest the passage of weak upper level energy late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This could bring a few sprinkles to areas west of
the Mississippi River. Will keep the forecast dry at this time as
most of the precipitation is expected to hold just west of the
region. Daytime highs will slowly moderate through the mid and upper
70s with nighttime lows in the 50s.

The upper level ridge in the west will build into the region by next
weekend as southerly winds develop at the surface. As a result,
temperatures are forecast to warm into the lower half of the 80s
both weekend days. Models continue to suggest the approach and
passage of a cold front late in the weekend, which will result in a
chance for showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night and Sunday.
At this point, the weather for next weekend`s open house looks dry--
barring a faster frontal passage. It will be quite warm with
somewhat higher yet still comfortable humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Compared to the 00z Monday TAF issuance, a more aggressive stance
was taken on generating VFR ceilings for each of the sites for the
06z Monday TAFs. Also added a late period low probability mention
of showers for KCGI.

The short range guidance has been more positive in depicting the
trajectory of moisture through the area. Although lift will be
somewhat marginal, anticipate that there will be enough saturation
for scattered to broken clouds, especially at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





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