Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262022
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Low clouds finally dissipated. Surface ridge right across the
middle of the CWFA will move off to the ESE. Confidence not high
tonight in terms of potential fog or cloud redevelopment. Our lows
are forecast to cross below afternoon dew points, so at least
patchy fog is a possibility. Better overall flow, albeit weak
keeps our confidence low at this time in how things will evolve,
if at all.

Quiet weather Sunday, then we have a chance of showers Sunday
night. This first chance will be in response to moisture moving in
as the mid level ridge moves east. The sfc/parent h5 lows will end
up over the Dakotas by 12z Monday. Meanwhile, secondary energy at
the base of the large scale trof will eject ENE from the southern
Rockies/Plains Monday reaching the Mississippi Valley region by
Monday evening. Strong moist advection and increasing large scale
ascent will result in a rapid increase on showers across the
Arklatex and Ozarks region Monday morning, then moving into and
across the area through the day.

Monday afternoon and evening could become quite breezy as a
surface wave develops in response to strong upper jet dynamics
moving across the area during the evening. This is also when we
have a limited chance of lightning. Wind fields are quite
impressive at all levels, but the low levels will not be fully
recovered, and fairly "cool". That should preclude the chance of
strong/severe convection. Gusty showers are most likely. The
chance of showers will diminish rapidly from 06z on Monday night.
In fact, it may be over by 06z should the faster models verify.

Temps will be a blend of MOS and raw model output. Overall QPF
totals remain 1-2 inches. Best chance of near 2 inches amounts
will be across SEMO into far west KY.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

We start out the long term period with a huge upper trough that will
be impacting a good chunk of the country. The challenge remains in
how exactly this large system will evolve over time.

An main upper level low will be situated over Minnesota on 12Z
Tuesday. This upper level low remains nearly stationary and sits and
spins over the upper Midwest over the next 24 hours in time.
As this occurs, another upper trough will sharpen up to our west.
Meanwhile, Tuesday and Tuesday night, ahead of this strengthening
trough, we will be in southwest flow aloft which should help us gain
a few degrees with regards to high temperatures. There may be a
small chance for precipitation in our far eastern counties due to a
strengthening frontal boundary to our southeast with some
overrunning.  The last few ECMWF runs and the newest GFS ensembles
insist that parts of west KY have a chance to see some precip. Will
maintain the low chance POPs already going in the grids for Tuesday
night.

The aforementioned upper trough will traverse our region Wednesday
into Wednesday night as the main upper level low moves into the
Upper Great Lakes region. Due to the lack of deep moisture across
most of the area, we should just be dealing with cloudiness with the
progresson of this feature. But, the ECMWF is pulling up moisture
from the south and indicating a small possibility of light precip in
our east. That will need to be watched, since we have Wednesday
mainly dry for now. This is especially true because the GFS ensemble
precip mean is not entirely dry for Wednesday and even into
Wednesday night. Lots of time to figure out exactly how this system
will evolve.

Temperatures will only be in the 50s for highs on Wednesday and lows
Wednesday night/Thursday morning drop below freezing as colder air
filters back into the area. In fact, 850 mb temperatures drop below
zero, so Thursday we will see highs in the mid/upper 40s to around
50 degrees, with similar temperatures to end the week and to start
the weekend.

Upper flow basically becomes zonal or quasi-zonal from Thursday
through Saturday. We will remain on the northern periphery of a sfc
high centered over the Gulf coast states from Thursday Thursday into
Friday, so the dry weather will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Clouds dissipated. For now, will monitor patchy fog potential for
the overnight, and add it if signs point to it through the
evening. Otherwise light winds will become more southerly on the
backside of high pressure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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