Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280759
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

As the final pinwheel of energy around the upper Low pressure
system continues to fuel a few lingering/isolated storms across
the FA early this morning, we`ll slowly but surely eventually see
improving weather conditions take over, with surface High pressure
spreading across the mid Mississippi river valley over the course
of the day, in the wake of the departing storm system. This will
provide a nice, dry break to finish out the work week, before rain
chances return in earnest again this weekend.

Highs temperatures each day will range through the 70s, with
maybe an 80 here or there, while Lows will be in the 50s, or lower
60s, through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

A frontal boundary will be bisecting the area at the start of the
day on Sunday. This front will continue moving east during the day.
The best chance for rain in the morning will be in our eastern areas
with the FROPA. However, models are not in good agreement about the
regeneration of showers/storms with the passage of the upper
trough/low in the afternoon/early evening. Will maintain likely POPS
east and high chance west during the day, with slight chance/chance
POPS into the evening hours. Would like to see more consistency
before raising chances any more than that and getting more specific
on timing.

We will see a reprieve from the rain on Monday with cooler
temperatures and a much drier airmass moving overhead. However, some
energy out west will be moving toward the area by Monday night,
giving us a small chance for some activity, mainly in our southern
areas where moisture is a bit better. An upper level trough will
move through on Tuesday. Models don`t seem too excited at this point
for any widespread precipitation due to lack of deep moisture but
feel a slight chance is warranted at this point at least for our
southern areas once again. This idea blends well with neighboring
offices.

Another strong cold front barrels through the area on
Wednesday/Wednesday night bringing yet another chance (albeit small
right now) for precipitation. The front will result in another
cooldown for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Departing morning storms may carry temporary convection related
CIG/VSBY restrictions early, before rapid improvement to VFR
conditions today as surface high pressure works in following the
storm system`s departure. As this pattern transition occurs
synoptically, southerlies will shift to prevailing westerlies.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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