Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 172346
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A dry cold front was crossing our region this afternoon, accompanied
by a gradual wind shift into the northwest. This front will be
followed by cooler temperatures over the weekend. The surface high
pressure center will cross the Lower Ohio Valley on Sunday. Nearly
calm winds and clear skies Sunday morning could allow for the
formation of a little frost. Forecast low temps for Saturday night
will be closer to the cooler mos guidance than the allblend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Main challenge is with Monday`s forecast. After that, high and dry
regardless of model choice. The GFS seems to be an outlier model
for Monday, from much deeper with the h5 trof moving across the
Great Lakes and Midwest, to its higher overall moisture forecast.
The NAM/SREF/GEM and ECMWF are much drier, and also not as intense
with the westward extension of the trof axis. A slight chance PoP
for isolated showers is no big deal to carry, and we are
essentially surrounded by at least 20s percent (with our
neighboring offices). The dynamics, despite marginal moisture are
respectable. Having said that, most areas may not see a thing
(rainfall wise) as the system and its associated frontal boundary
move through.

After that, high pressure will eventually take control, as a mid
level low moves across the east U.S. (favored model per WPC is an
ECMWF/ECMWF mean blend). Will probably see wrap around cu/strato-
cu Tuesday, especially east of the Mississippi. Rest of the week,
not much in the way of cloud cover as deeper layer drying takes
place. Lots of 60s for highs and 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The edge of a mass of 4-6kft clouds is currently approaching KEVV.
These clouds will be rotating eastward, while the whole mass
pushes southward. It appears that an occasional ceiling condition
will be possible through the night at KEVV, but it will still be at
VFR levels. Ceilings less likely, but still possible at KOWB
tonight. Would be surprised if these clouds reached KPAH or KCGI
tonight. There should be plenty of wind to prevent fog formation
tonight. The current IFR visibility at KCGI appears to be due to
smoke, and would expect it to not last long. A few northwesterly gusts
will be possible throughout the area again Saturday. Ceilings are
a better bet at KEVV and KOWB, and they may flirt with 3kft at
times, especially in the morning. Elsewhere, just scattered cu are
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS





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