Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191743 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Weak warm advection along with a weak mid-level disturbance will
lead to increasing showers and thunderstorms over southeast
Missouri and the Purchase Area through the morning hours. Radar
trends support this idea, so will have PoPs increasing to at least
likely levels. There will be a rather sharp northern edge to the
activity this morning. This afternoon the coverage should dwindle
across the south, as the low chances spread northward through the
entire area.

Much of the area should see a lull for at least the evening hours
tonight. However, there is a decent signal for convective
development overnight and especially into Saturday morning, mainly
over west Kentucky, as another mid-level disturbance lifts east
northeast through the region. See no reason not to believe this
signal, so will have likely PoPs mainly over west Kentucky
Saturday morning.

The expected morning convection could have an adverse impact on
convective potential closer to the front Saturday afternoon and
evening. Instability will be difficult to find, and any
significant convection early in the day will only make
destabilization more difficult.

Given the mid and upper-level forcing with the trough, and the
surface boundary in the vicinity, some thunderstorms are likely to
develop, especially over the northern half of the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Not so sure how much coverage there will be
over the southern half of the area, especially if there is
significant coverage of convection in the morning. The wind fields
will be increasing and may support a few brief severe storms with
primarily a damaging wind threat. The convection should pass
through the entire area Saturday evening, and it should dry out
overnight and be dry and significantly cooler Sunday.

With plentiful cloud cover and precipitation expected through
Saturday evening, small diurnal ranges will continue. Still
leaning above guidance for lows tonight due to stronger winds and
lots of clouds expected. Otherwise, stayed close to the consensus
of guidance for highs and lows. Sunday will be much cooler, with
highs near 80 with full sun. Welcome to fall?

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Above average confidence in the extended...mainly due to better
model consistency.

At the start of the extended models continue to be in firm agreement
with a surface high dominating the weather patter for the first part
of the week with some mild ridging aloft. We will start off the week
with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal...then slowly
moderate to near normal by the end of the week. As the high slowly
drifts off to the east...a southerly flow set up as the Gulf opens
for business. This will coincide with an approaching cold front from
the northwest toward the end of the week. There might be some
isolated precipitation in the extreme northwest portions of the
area. Will wait and see what the extended init yields before making
final decision to include mention that early. Once again as we
approach the end of the week PWATs soar to around >2". Now here is
where the models have had some discrepancies. The ECMWF continues to
bring a cold front through Thursday into Friday...and now the GFS is
starting to come into better agreement. There is about 6 hours
difference in the timing but 7 to 8 days out thats not bad. The one
thing we need to be Leary of is if this front hangs up over the area
like this past weekend ones did. Which the models advertised it to
move through at seven days out just like this one next weekend. So
will monitor closer for any hints of such solutions drifting into
the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon with possible MVFR conditions
in VCSH/VCTS through 00Z. From 06Z on expect IFR/MVFR conditions
overnight, then back to VFR after 15Z but with VCSH/VCTS after
15Z. Southerly winds AOB 5 knots becoming south southwest AOB 10
knots.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...JP



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