Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 192308
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

No changes planned to the Heat Advisory at this time.

A band of enhanced dewpoints into the upper 70s set up for much of
the day from southwest Illinois southeastward into the Lakes and
southern Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. This has supported
both heat indices up to 105 degrees, and isolated thunderstorm
development. The convection this afternoon has been outflow
dominated, and individual cells have been relatively short-lived.
A few isolated strong wind gusts will remain possible, but an
overall weakening trend has been noted. The entire area should be
dry by 00Z.

A large area of thunderstorms will attempt to move southeast into
the I-64 corridor later this evening and overnight, but most of
the guidance indicates that it will be rapidly weakening as it
approaches.

We have been struggling to reach the heat advisory criteria over
southeast Missouri the last 2 afternoons, and guidance is trending
a bit cooler and drier for Wednesday. It will still be rather hot
and humid in the Advisory area Wednesday, so we will leave the
Advisory alone for now, even if we don`t quite get to 105 degrees.
East of the Advisory it should be a few degrees cooler than today.
The 12Z models are still hinting at some isolated convective
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
Wednesday which could provide further relief from the heat in some
areas.

The models are not completely dry for Thursday, but the upper
ridge will be building eastward over our region, so the forecast
will remain dry for Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will
climb back into the mid 90s over most of the region Thursday
afternoon, but dewpoints are expected to drop into the lower 70s,
so heat indices will straddle the 105 mark over much of the area.
A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary for the entire area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Above average confidence in the extended.

Strong high pressure will be firmly in place by the start of the
extended.

Not much has changed in the extended. The heat and humidity will
persist into the weekend. Will likely end up with at least a heat
advisory or possibly even a warning considering the extended
duration of the heat...lasting 4 days or more. Will wait on the
extended init and collaboration for final call on what products to
produce. There is some relief in site according the latest model
runs. The ECMWF has slowed down and is tightening the gap between it
and the GFS. The GFS is still placing fropa on Monday while the
ECMWF is advertising more Sunday aftn. Both models agree on fropa
actually taking place but have narrowed the timing difference to
about 12 to 18 hours vs yesterdays run at 24 hours. Both do agree
the front will stall south of the area for the early part of next
week. This should bring some relief from the heat and humidity.
However highs around 90 in the wake of the front is still very warm.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday into Monday with
decreasing chances as we head through next week. Isolated afternoon
storms will be possible for most of the extended with gusty winds
and heavy rainfall being the main threats.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Overall, no change in the weather pattern is expected this taf
cycle. Mainly clear skies and light winds at night will give way to
mvfr vsbys in fog around sunrise. The fog will burn off shortly
after sunrise, followed by scattered to broken diurnal cumulus.
Winds be light and variable. Isolated thunderstorms will be an ever-
present threat in this very humid and unstable air mass. However,
sparse coverage and lack of a specific time-frame precludes
mentioning them in the tafs.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ075-080-081-084-
     085-088-089-092>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...MY


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