Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301940

240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of today)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

The RAP has done a good job with the infiltration of lower level
dry air from the NNE, and a better job with short term temps,
slightly warmer NW and cooler toward the TN border with KY. Will
continue with its trends through 00z, gradual decreasing clouds
from the north.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

Heights will continue to lower over the SE U.S. with a h5 closed low
forecast to develop close to the TN valley next 24 hours. The low
will then drop SSE. Decreasing clouds most areas, though they may
hold on across the Pennyrile. Will have a dry forecast through
Thursday. Thursday night through Friday night will bring a chance of
showers into the eastern part of the CWFA as the models rotate
moisture/clouds and modest lift back west into the area. The GFS/NAM
solutions are a tad more aggressive with scattered shower chances
vs. the latest ECMWF. We have raised our numerical PoP values
slightly, but not as aggressively as MOS across the east given lower
confidence. We generally favored MOS temps, but went at or slightly
below values for highs Friday across the west KY Pennyrile.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

At the start of the period, the models are in moderate agreement
with a closed low over the SE U.S. and Joaquin somewhere east of FL.
The divergence in solutions is swift from 12z Sunday on with respect
to Joaquin and the placement/transition of the SE closed low into
early next week. Thankfully, after looking over the past 3 days
worth of runs for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, our weather
looks uneventful regardless of how the pattern evolves (including
Joaquin). The only way this changes is if somehow either Joaquin, or
the upper low ends up notably farther west than forecast. We will
carry just a slight chance of showers SW IN/west KY Pennyrile
Saturday, then dry Saturday night through Tuesday. Looking at the
past 3 MOS sets, Saturday still on track to be coolish. The overall
MOS trend for Sunday through Tuesday is warmer, especially
Monday/Tuesday. We adjusted up as a result given the prospect for
less cloud cover and a rise in heights.


Issued at 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

MVFR cigs continue generally south of a KMDH-KAJG line with breaks
continuing to push south across southern IL. Will depict a gradual
improvement through 00z as drier low level air continues to filter
south across the region, with north winds around 10 kts

Models depict mid clouds may persist tonight. NAM-RAP models
advect low-level moisture in from the NE Thursday morning. We
introduced a SCT deck just below 3k/ft in case this comes to
fruition. Later shifts can adjust. North winds generally around 5
kts tonight will become NNE and gusty Thursday morning. Some gusts
may climb just over 20 kts.




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