Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Finally got the Dense Fog Advisory out for areas from Mt Vernon
Illinois to Greenville Kentucky and westward through the entire
area. Starting to get 1/4SM reports at KM25 and KCEY and
visibilities are beginning to drop over the southern Illinois
portion of the Advisory. Short range guidance even indicates that
the dense fog may develop over the entire EVV Tri State area, but
right near daybreak, as the warm front approaches. Will let the
later shifts add that area when it become necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 843 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The measurable rainfall seems to be near an end in the northeast,
and the latest HRRR runs indicate that it may very well remain dry
throughout the area for the rest of the night. Updated to trend
drier through 06Z, but still have some lower chance PoPs coming
into the west toward morning.

The bigger story tonight will be fog which is prevalent over the
southern half of the region at this time. A few sites along the
southern border of the region are under a mile, but to this point
have not seen any reports of 1/4SM. Have added areas of dense fog
to the forecast. Held it out until near sunrise in the EVV Tri
State, but latest short term guidance indicates that even the
northeast will see some decent fog by morning.

I would prefer to see some observations/reports of dense fog
before pulling the trigger on a Dense Fog Advisory, but will
probably be making a decision in the next hour or so. It seems
most likely over southeast Missouri and the Tennessee border areas
of west Kentucky.

UPDATE Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Updated aviation discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

High rain chances return to the region Monday and especially
Monday night as a cold front and associated H50 short wave
approach from the west, and a surface low tracks northeastward
through through the Plains and into the Midwest. Southerly winds
will likely push high temperatures Monday afternoon well into the
50s north/60s south.

Still not too excited at this time on strong/severe threat given
overall lack of instability. MU CAPES progged to remain the 100-300 J/KG range. More likely just a few
isolated storms here and there with some locally heavy downpours.
Things could change a bit if more than anticipated instability
levels were to work northeast into the region from AR. As far as
rain amounts are concerned, could be some decent amounts up over
1/2 inch, especially along and south of the OH River.

High pressure moving in behind this system will be of Pacific
origin, so should stay with above normal temps as we head into
Tue/Wed time frame. May even finally see a long awaited return to
some decent amounts of sunshine by Wednesday. Tuesday looks to be
quite breezy (west winds) with quite a bit of residual cloud

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The extended forecast period begins with the ridging in place at the
surface and aloft in the wake of the exiting weather system on

The mean hemispheric pattern suggests that the strong zonal flow
will slowly translate toward the West Coast of the U.S. while ridging
builds aloft along the eastern U.S. by the middle of this week. This
will create an oscillating fire hose effect, generating eddies in
the mean flow until the zonal flow from the Eastern Pacific pushes
into the southwest quarter of the U.S. over the weekend.

The closed low that moved into Western Texas today (Sunday) from the
Northern Mexico this morning is expected to maintain enough
troughiness in the Western U.S. to support another sharpening
shortwave into the backside of the trough.  This next shortwave will
be the likely generator of precipitation from the Lower Mississippi
Valley as it moves along the eastern axis of the mean trough,
eventually dampening the ridge over the WFO PAH forecast area on

This circulation will bring moisture and instability into the WFO
PAH forecast area Thursday into Friday, bringing the next chance for
rain and a few thunderstorms to the area.

Beyond Friday, the moisture, instability, and flow will become more
chaotic with periodic chances for rain for the remainder of the
weekend. Anticipate that the best chances for rain will remain
higher to the south and lesser to the north across the WFO PAH
forecast area.

Preferred the ECMWF solution over the GFS Solution for most of the
extended period, with the NAM-WRF presenting a good median position
at the beginning of the extended period. The preference to the ECMWF
is also shared by the folks at NCEP.


Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

An atmosphere at or near saturation north of a warm front will
remain conducive to IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys this evening
and overnight. The worst conditions will probably be in southeastern
MO and the Purchase area of KY. Some areas of drizzle are possible
by mid morning Mon, followed by light rain in the afternoon and
generally improving cig/vsby conditions, especially in the Pennyrile
region of KY. Meanwhile, surface winds will gradually veer to the
south or southeast by Mon afternoon.


IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for ILZ075-080>082-

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for KYZ001>017-021-022.



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