Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 071757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 550 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Confidence remains high in the short term with good overall model
agreement. Expect one more day of dry and mild weather with highs
in the 50s once again. Southerly winds will be on the increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. By afternoon, southwest
winds should be sustained around 15 mph with occasional gusts to
25 mph.

Upper level energy over the Northern Plains will dive southeast
into the Upper Midwest over the next 24 hours. This will amplify
the upper level pattern across the nation and result in the
development of a deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by Monday. The passage of a strong cold front tonight
will bring sharply colder air into the region by Monday on brisk
northwest winds. By Monday afternoon, sustained winds of 20 mph
are expected with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Besides the Arctic plunge, the other impact for the immediate
area will be the potential for light precipitation. The first
chance arrives tonight--mainly in the evening--in the form of
light rain with the passage of the cold front. The second
precipitation chance arrives Monday and Tuesday in the wrap-
around cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low. The entire
atmospheric column will be cold enough for this precipitation to
fall in the form of light snow showers.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky. Heavier snow squalls may eventually result in a half
inch to inch of light powdery snow in localized areas, but it is
too soon to speculate where at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Fairly high confidence currently that much of this period will be
dry and quite cold. Biggest question is just how cold...esp Tuesday
night into Thursday. Believe much of the MOS guidance/superblend
guidance has been influenced too much by climatology weighting, esp
out past day 3. Latest GFS MOS seems to be catching onto how cold
this Canadian blast may actually be, and even the latest 00z ECE MOS
is starting to catch on. Would not be surprised at all to see single
digits in some locations by the time we get into the Tue/Wed
night time frames. This would be especially true if we manage to
get a light dusting/coating of fresh snowfall earlier in the week.
Will likely see sub-freezing temps for a good 72+ hours over much
of the region (Monday night through much of Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1156 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions will prevail overnight until cigs decrease to MVFR
around 12Z. Limited moisture will prevent anything but a few
sprinkles near KEVV and KOWB as a cold front passes through
tonight. However as the associated upper level trof passes through
Monday, light snow showers are likely east of the Mississppi
River, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Southwest winds will gust AOB
25 kts until this evening, then gradually veer to the west
overnight and become northwest by late Monday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM


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