Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281305

705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 12z tafs


.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

The theme of the short term period will be a warming trend as
surface high pressure moves east of our region. The high pressure
ridge axis extended from Wisconsin to Tennessee early this
morning. Winds were already becoming light southeast across the
forecast area as of 08z. The combination of light winds and some mid
level clouds were keeping temps up enough to prevent much in the
way of fog overnight.

The mid clouds will exit our region early this morning, resulting
in a mostly sunny day. Increasing southerly winds and sunshine
will allow temps to rebound more quickly today. Due to the cold
start to the day (in the 20s), highs will be only in the 40s
with the exception of some lower 50s around kpof.

Tonight and Saturday, strong low level southwest winds will
increase to around 50 knots at 925 mb based on the 00z nam. In
fact, the 00z nam brings 50-knot winds down to 1700 feet agl
tonight at kpah and kevv, but these winds are within a surface-
based inversion. Since mixing will be extremely poor within the
inversion, surface winds should not reach advisory thresholds.

Relatively warm and moist air advecting over the cool ground will
result in widespread stratus cloudiness beginning late tonight in
southeast Missouri and across the entire forecast area Saturday.
The depth of the moisture will be no higher than 850 mb, but it
could be sufficient for areas of drizzle or some very light rain.
Will maintain 20 percent chances of measurable precip. The sheer
strength of the warm advection will push highs to between 55 and
60 on Saturday.

Temps should hold steady or rise slightly Saturday night due to
strong low level southwest winds and abundant low cloudiness.
Areas of drizzle or very light rain will remain possible.

On Sunday, a strong surface cold front will move southeast across
central Missouri and central Illinois. The models continue to
indicate that moisture will remain shallow until the front
arrives, which is beyond the short term forecast period. Therefore,
pops will remain only about 20 percent for many areas on Sunday.
High temps will reach the 60s with gusty south winds continuing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Used GEFS and superblend for most of the forecast except for the
Sunday night to Monday night time frame. There is still a problem
with ECMWF and GFS agreement next week. Overall flow next week
should be more zonal with fast moving systems.

Plenty of low level moisture will be in the area Sunday night into
Monday night and then slowly move out. As the cold front pushes
through Sunday night into Monday, there could be some issues with
freezing rain or drizzle. Used the NAM and other temperature
combination for the shallow cold air mass behind the front.

Looks like by Monday morning there could be some light freezing rain
from northern Wabash county southwest to Benton IL to northern
Carter county. High temperatures on Monday will be in the morning in
most areas. By late Monday afternoon there is the potential for some
rain/freezing rain combination east of a line from about Santa Claus
IN to the lakes region of West KY. Amounts will generally be light
but any ice can be a problem. The precipitation should exit the area
by midnight Monday night and all areas will be above freezing on
Tuesday so this will not be a prolonged event. This is still days
away so the scenario will be adjusted.

Later in the week another weather system will spread rain into the
area, however, it will be warmer.


Issued at 705 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

Main aviation concern is winds. Winds will increase from the south
today with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Low level wind shear
will become a concern tonight as winds increase to around 50 knots
at 1700 feet agl. No cig or vsby concerns are expected, other than a
bit of haze early this morning.




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