Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 031144 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
644 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED E-W ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF OUR CWA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING IS FORECAST TO WAFFLE
BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

ON SATURDAY A SHARP SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH SAID FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ALL EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BUT CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS WITH EACH RUN OF THE
EXTENDED INIT. THE EASTERN TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS ABOUT
TO CHANGE WITH A LOW COMING ONTO THE WEST COAST BUT THAT WILL HAPPEN
MID TO LATE WEEK. OVER THE EAST THE TROUGH PERSISTS WITH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER WE
STILL HAVE A TROUGH APPROACHING WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN AND
ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE HEARTLAND. IT APPEARS IN MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME ANY STORMS WILL BE INITIATED WITH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. HOWEVER WAA SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYTIME
WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER COLD FRONT START TO
ENTER THE PICTURE. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH WITH GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORMS. BY LATE WEEK MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DRIER. IT
WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS AND MOISTURE THEY WILL BOTH INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT MID WEEK MIGHT CHANGE THAT TREND AT
LEAST A LITTLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES COMBINED WITH
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
VCSH/TSRA POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY BECOMING NORTHWEST
AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH


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