Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 312006
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
206 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Main forecast challenge in the short term continues to lie with
the severe weather potential coming up on Tuesday across much of
the region.

In the meantime, a cold front will cross the region tonight,
bringing with it our next chance of showers. Little mid/upper
support with the front and low lvl convergence looks meager, so
should not be a big rain maker, and do not see enough instability
to warrant much of a thunder threat other than an isolated rumble
here and there. High pressure will then bring us a brief cool
down and dry period for the most of the day Monday, ahead of the
next stronger system that will be approaching the region on
Tuesday.

Vigorous mid/upper level low will eject northeast from the Plains
into the Midwest during the day Tuesday. An associated pre-frontal
surface trof will be approaching the mid MS River Valley by early
afternoon...and will cross srn IL/wrn KY/sw IN during the
afternoon and very early in the evening. Integrated moisture
values will also be increasing ahead of the front Tuesday
afternoon. Wind profiles suggest a decent severe storm potential,
depending on the amount of instability that can be generated. Much
of the operational model guidance now suggests MU CAPES 400-800
J/KG forming ahead of the front on Tuesday. Thinking is that a
QLCS type of event may be in order, with a squall line possibly
developing late morning over se MO, then transversing east across
the remainder of the forecast region Tue afternoon into the early
evening. Though damaging wind gusts with bowing segments appears
to be the most likely risk with this type of event, isolated/brief
tornado spin-ups cannot be ruled out. It is still looking as
though the higher svr risk will be over wrn KY, though I would not
be surprised if much of the region ends up in some type of SPC
watch box sometime on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 137 PM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

Its mainly dry through the extended with near normal temperatures.
However there is a cold front poised to move through Saturday. This
could produce sprinkles during the day or flurries overnight. But
for now we are not confident there will enough moisture for this to
produce an impact if anything at all. Plan to leave it dry unless
collaboration forces me to put a mention in the forecast. The
northwest flow remains in place most of the time with steep waves
rotating through. But again not sure enough moisture will be
available for precipitation at this time. The 12z Sun ECMWF is
coming in and it now is dry like the GFS and Canadian would suggest.
However the extended init used the 00z Sun ECMWF which had moisture
over the lower Ohio valley vs the dry 12z run.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

High MVFR to low VFR cigs will prevail ahead of an advancing cold
front this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front cigs
should become VFR starting at KCGI around 04Z. Southerly winds at
14-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots will drop off to AOB 12 knots
by late afternoon, then become northerly overnight AOB 10 knots in
the wake of the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH


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