Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 161712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1212 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Quiet again early this morning with high pressure off to our east.
Just a few high clouds around. Main story today will be an
increase in winds, especially SEMO, into southern IL where the
pressure gradient will be a bit better. May have to consider a
Lake Wind Advisory in this area. Will decide at press time. With
respect to temps. MOS was a couple of degrees too warm yesterday.
Noticed that 850mb temps are forecast to lower 3-4 deg C from 00z
yesterday through this evening, with 925mb temps staying about the
same, sampling the mixed layer. We usually warm a bit with decent
SSW flow. But am concerned MOS is again a degree or two too warm.
We went closer to weighted model output and base model output
which keeps areas in the mid to upper 80s for highs.

Quiet weather continues tonight, with mild lows as south winds
stay up a bit. Main story Wednesday will be winds, that should
really crank up by mid morning, through afternoon. Will be at Lake
Wind Advisory all areas. Thing is, some locations may be at Wind
Advisory. Not sure how the headline depiction will end up. Windy
none the less. Chance of storms enters into SEMO by late
afternoon. Will carry low chance PoPs Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The PoPs will be based on weak mid level PVA
progressing into the area, in response to a compact H5 low that
should lift northeast from the Plains into the Upper Midwest /
Great Lakes. Models are struggling with the areal aspect,
magnitude, and to some degree timing. Thus the lower PoPs until
confidence increases.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Medium confidence in extended at best.

High pressure will slowly migrate to the southeast in the extended
allowing for a low over the plains to slowly progress from the
central plains toward the great lakes region. This feature will kick
a cold front through the region this weekend bringing our best
chance for storms. Models are coming into a little better agreement
on Precipitation timing and placement. We will be in the warm sector
for most of the extended. Forecast sounding indicate that we will at
least have a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon at peak
heating at the very least with CAPES averaging around 2k j/kg2 and
Li`s well into the negative. However we do not have any real
synoptic kickers until Saturday night into Sunday when a cold front
moves through. However we do get into a strong southwest flow aloft
and at the surface. So we will be looking for perturbations aloft or
outflow boundaries to initiate convection prior to cold front
passage. Think with some confidence that this will occur but
coverage may be more in the scattered form prior to fropa.
Temperatures will slightly above normal until Sunday with the cold
front passage then they will fall slightly below normal as the flow
becomes more northerly in the fronts wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

An area of broken cumulus clouds formed across se Missouri late this
morning. Sct to bkn cu will prevail across the entire region this
afternoon, with the least cumulus coverage over sw Indiana and kowb
area. VFR conditions are expected with cloud bases above 4k feet.
Winds will be gusting to 20 to 25 kt from the southwest. The cu will
dissipate with loss of daytime heating around 00z, and winds will
diminish quickly around sunset.

The main story late tonight and Wednesday will be winds. Winds at 2k
feet will be 35 to 40 knots from late tonight through Wed. This will
result in low lvl wind shear early Wed morning. Once daytime heating
mixes the winds down, some gusts to 30 kt are likely by 18z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...CN
Long Term....KH
Aviation.....MY



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