Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Near term convective (svr) environment continues, with best
threat area appearing now to be shifting to Lakes/eastward across
southern Pennyrile, where best dew point surge/area of some
breaks/highest MU Capes coexist. Area of ongoing convection has
picked up steam, from around 32Kts earlier today to ongoing around
40Kts now, and this is anticipated as upper jet is moving in.
This should propel convection thru southern Ky fairly quickly,
with HRRR modeling the ongoing activity reasonably well, and
taking bulk of its pcpn thru the area/into scntl Ky/cntl Tn by
23Z. Will go near certainty Pops til then, and cut into them
drastically afterwards. May maintain upper trof/instability shower
chance or slight chance, esp east, overnight however.

After tonight, Tuesday offers a pause, with the upper ridge
nudging across the mid Mississippi/Tennessee valleys. Then another
robust storm system takes shape and ejects across the southern
Plains, moving its convection into the lower and mid Mississippi
valleys Wed night-Thursday, with maybe some warm sector/advection
chances showing up earlier, esp west, during the day Wed. A
similar environment is encountered so we are outlooked SWODY3
Marginal to Slight risk for late Wed night into Thursday morning,
with the 15% bubbling across western Ky Thursday, not too
dissimilar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A very active split flow pattern will continue across the CONUS
later in the week. The ECMWF has been less consistent than the GFS
with keeping the flatter northern and the amplified southern stream
unphased (phasing tended to result in faster forward movement).
However, the 12Z runs of the deterministic models seemed to be back
in reasonable agreement, and the consensus is that the PAH forecast
area will be affected by two systems in the extended forecast, one
on Thu/Fri which should hold together and move across our region,
and another probably on Mon which may become an open wave as it

Overall, PoPs should remain rather high Thu/Thu night with the first
large low pressure system, though there may be at least one interval
of dry slotting in the warm sector sometime during the day Thu.
Thunderstorm chances should diminish from west to east Thu night,
but there might be a resurgence of instability during the day Fri
for the eastern half of the region under the mid level low.

At this time, the weekend looks mostly dry under mid level ridging
and a ridge axis of high surface pressure. As early as Sun night,
showers associated with the next low pressure system may occur in
the west, and expand across the region Mon. However, at Day 7, there
were significant model differences regarding the timing and
positioning of the system, so the forecast is subject to change.

Expect unseasonably warm temps Thu, followed by a drop of around ten
degrees on Fri, and a slow rebound through the rest of the extended


Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Convective chances with associated restrictions should be moving
out by next issuance time, until then, strong storms are possible,
esp KPAH/KOWB. Overnight, parent upper trof moving overhead will
keep unsettled MVFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS may occur at times as
well. Tmrw should see generally improving flight conditions,
though CIGS may be maintained early, until diurnal heating can
erode/lift cloud bases to VFR.




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