Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 081719

1218 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Updated aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Developing mid level s/wv energy tracking SE and increasing NW
flow across the east CONUS overall is expected in the short term.
A front is forecast to move across the area early Friday. Moisture
will be slow to increase across the area. Will keep PoPs mainly
chance category as a result, with a slim TSRA chance. Split the
difference timing wise, slower NAM vs. slightly faster GFS. PoPs
for convection will increase across the NW 1/2 of the area tonight
after midnight, with highest chance PoPs axis moving SE Friday.
Will linger a small PoP Friday evening across the KHOP area and
east of the Lakes. Think most of the activity will be over by
then. After that, dry weather returns with high pressure building
in, into Saturday. Temps will be a bit cooler in the wake of the

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Medium to high confidence in the extended. Most of the model
consensus Mondays cold front passage dry. The 00z Thu GFS and
Canadian runs are trying to develop a little moisture over the
area. However believe they have the typical high moisture bias
that has been evident if not prevalent in the model runs. It`s
typical for the models to hold onto a more summer like moisture
bias until the observations actually come into the models with a
drier fall like representation. Will not rule precipitation out at
this time but believe the chances remain too low for introduction.
Continue to tweak winds up and moisture down with the frontal
passage and in its wake. Expect a mainly dry week with near normal
temperatures. The next front is progged to reach the area next
Friday and it appears to be wet. However much like the front early
in the week the gulf moisture or flow is very limited at best.
Will have to monitor these moisture starved systems closely for
possible introduction of pops.


Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The region will be under a warm advection regime through the
overnight hours, with light sfc winds out of the sw. Any clouds are
expected to be in the VFR range. Limited moisture in the lower
levels will reduce the chances of pcpn-induced vsby restrictions Fri
morning as a mid level shrtwv and sfc cold front sweep through the
region. An isold lightning strike is possible, but not enough to
include in the TAFs.




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