Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242330
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Focus into the evening will up along I-64 where convection may
drop SE into the area should it take shape just off to the north
of our CWFA. Focus translates toward the KEVV tri-state into the
evening, then chances diminish overnight. Decent instability and
being on the southern extent of enhanced mid level westerlies up
around 40-45 kts means strong, maybe a severe storm cannot be
ruled out, should anything really get going. Will continue to
handle with low chance PoPs for now. Adjustments can be expected.

Otherwise, mid level high becomes more expansive over the SE U.S.
with heights rising across our area. Hot and humid Thursday with a
mainly dry forecast. Raised highs a couple of degrees. Thursday
night for the most part should be dry. Our western counties may be
in question as some moisture works around the west side of the
high. Friday into Friday night, chances will expand a bit across
the area. Will keep PoPs in check and just lower chance for now
given uncertainty. Support aloft isn`t impressive. And, a front
moving into the area should essentially wash.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Average confidence with the weekend forecast, but confidence
decreases during the early to middle of next week as the operational
model solutions diverge considerably with how they resolve the
evolution of low Invest AL99.

As a broad H500 ridge remains entrenched over the East Coast for the
weekend, southerly flow continues bring heat and moisture back up
into the Midwest through much of the fcst period. Generally trended
forecast toward the latest GEFS mean/GFS runs and away from the 00z
Euro. The best shower and thunderstorm chances in the period are
Saturday as a weak surface boundary and shortwave aloft bring some
decent forcing. Highest PoPs Saturday are in the northwest/west FA
and lowest PoPs in southwest IN. With fcst Pwats around two inches
with the latest GFS, will continue monitoring for chance of locally
heavy rain. Expect Saturday`s showers/storms to weaken diurnally.

As previously mentioned surface boundary remaining in the region and
shortwave energy continues to eject from the Rockies, can`t rule out
some scattered showers or storms in afternoons early next week.
Overall would expect to have more dry periods than not after
Saturday based on today`s model runs. That being said, with great
uncertainty in the evolution and track of low Invest AL99, the
forecast for the middle and end of next week could change
considerably.

Regarding temperatures, expecting highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s
with lows around 70 degrees. Could see heat indices Saturday through
Monday peaking around 100 degrees in southern parts of the FA,
thanks to the return of higher humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The TAFs are VFR and dry. Latest satellite and radar trends
support most recent hi-resolution model data in keeping KEVV and
KOWB well removed from convection this evening. Continued to keep
fog out of the forecasts despite pessimistic MOS guidance. Still
expecting 4-5kts of wind through the night which should keep
things stirred up enough to prevent any significant fog
development. Modest southwest winds and a decent cu field are
expected Thursday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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