Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The heavy rainfall event has wound down this afternoon as the
center of Cindy`s remnants moved east of the area. At 1945z, the
circulation center on kpah radar appeared to be just a bit east of
khop. A cold front moving into southern IL and southeast MO has
initiated a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. This line is
moving fairly quickly into an air mass that was stabilized by
widespread rainfall. Therefore, the risk of any additional flash
flooding is quite small. The watch has been cancelled for some
areas, and the remainder will either expire or be cancelled by 5

As a post-mortem of the past 24 hours, the heaviest rainfall was
generally more northwest than modelled. The heaviest rain appeared
to be in a deformation zone on the north side of the circulation
center. These deformation zones have proven to be the downfall of
many forecasts, mainly in the winter months.

Quiet weather will begin this evening following the departure of
the last of the cold frontal showers and isolated storms. Much
cooler and drier air will continue through the weekend. Overnight
lows will be in the 50s, and daytime highs will be in the lower
80s. Some scattered diurnal cumulus clouds are indicated by the
model cu rule scheme in the afternoon, otherwise plenty of sun is

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Monday through Tuesday, will continue to follow a model consensus
and keep the forecast dry, with NW flow aloft and high pressure
moving across the area. We may have to add back a slight chance of
weak convection to the forecast as some models depict the chance,
mainly from SEMO, into west KY and the southern tip of IL. But the
run to run inconsistencies means we will take the dry route for now
until we can better define the time frame. Our mid level flow will
back around to the west Wednesday as the strong ridge over the SW
U.S. breaks down, replaced by a weak long wave. Return flow, and
subtle disturbances aloft may generate some thunderstorms by
Thursday into Friday. Blend PoPs are simply too high once again,
given the time of year, and lack of a significant signal. So nothing
more than 20/30 percents late in the period. Below normal temps to
start will gradually head back toward normal.


Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A line of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front has passed
across the taf sites. In its wake, northwest winds will gradually
bring drier air. Some lingering patches of mvfr cigs are possible
early this evening, mainly in the kevv/kowb areas. Otherwise, clouds
will be above 15k feet tonight. Winds will be northwest 5 to 10 kt.

On Saturday, scattered cumulus clouds will develop at or above 4k
feet with diurnal heating. Winds will be from the northwest,
increasing to 10 to 15 kt with a few higher gusts possible.





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