000
FXUS63 KPAH 232022
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

SCT-BKN STRATO-CU/CU WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
THE RULE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ASPECT INTO THE EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY SUGGEST CLEARING...AS CLOUDS LINGER FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW
ACROSS NRN MO INTO SRN IA. WNW WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE N THIS
EVENING AND DIMINISH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$