956
FXUS63 KTOP 262320
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. A few
instances of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall possible, but
severe weather potential is low overall.

- Warm and humid through Sunday. Sunday night cold front brings less
humid and slightly cooler weather for next week.

- Best rain and storm chances (50-70%) Sunday night with the
  cold front, otherwise small (10-30%) pop-up storm chances most
  afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Surface observations this afternoon depict a weak area of low
pressure across eastern Nebraska, with a weakening cold front
extending southwest into central Kansas. Satellite observations are
showing several bands of increasingly agitated cumulus ahead of and
parallel to the front. Given a moist and mostly uncapped airmass,
continued heating over the next hour or two should allow scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Forcing does remain quite weak though,
keeping confidence on the low end with regard to exact timing and
coverage of convection. Regardless, the environment continues to be
a very typical summer-time setup. Effective shear is weak, at less
than 15 kts, instability is moderate (2000-2500 J/kg), and moisture
content is high (PWAT 1.8-2.0"). Damaging winds with gusts up to
around 60 mph will be the main severe hazard, though some small hail
could occur with initial updrafts. Otherwise, as storms grow
upscale, there could be some isolated areas that pick up a quick few
inches of rain with a low-end flash flood risk. Generally though,
the more scattered nature of convection and a slow but steady
eastward progression will keep accumulations for most places around
or below one inch. Some places in north-central KS likely won`t see
anything. At any rate, any heavier storms will tend to clear east-
central KS by late evening, though a few weaker showers may linger
overnight.

Whatever weak boundary that still exists by tomorrow will lift back
north of the area as a broad zonal jet stream reestablishes itself
over the Northern Plains. This will keep warm and humid conditions
in place through the weekend. Highs climb into the 90s, lows stay in
the 70s, with heat indices approaching 100. Given a continued moist
airmass with only very weak CIN, can`t rule out an isolated shower
or storm across much of the weekend. However without any front or
upper shortwave to encourage ascent, most places will remain dry
through Sunday afternoon.

By Sunday evening and overnight, a front will push southeast across
the area as an upper trough begins to amplify over the Great Lakes.
This will increase shower/storm chances area-wide. Behind the front,
slightly cooler and drier air will work in, with dewpoints dropping
into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures look to
be near seasonal averages, in the upper 80s, with low temperatures
in the mid 60s slightly below average. Precipitation chances look
lower into mid-week behind the front, though in a typical summer
pattern like this it is difficult to discount PoPs altogether this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR at sites as line of storms continues to propagate eastward
and away from terminals. Confidence is low-medium with the next
round of TSRA as most guidance indicates sct TSRA forming along
the front, impacting KTOP/KFOE in 05Z-07Z time frame. Inserted
it as PROB30 with poor handling of models with this first round
of TSRA. As the front passes through, winds weaken and become
variable from 04-06Z remaining light through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Prieto