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000
FXUS63 KTOP 282349
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
549 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

An upper level trough across the Great Lakes States this afternoon
will move east across New England on Friday.

A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to build southeast
across eastern KS this afternoon. Northerly winds will diminish
later this afternoon and become light tonight. Clear skies and light
winds will allow overnight lows to drop into the mid teens to lower
20s. Temperatures may become steady or slowly rise before sunrise
across north central KS...as the sfc ridge axis shifts east into MO
and southerly winds increase above 5 KTS.

Friday...The subtropical H5 jet will increase across the
southwestern US and eastward across the southern plains. The
stronger winds aloft across the central Rockies will cause a lee
surface trough to deepen across the central and southern high plains
through the day on Friday. The increasing surface pressure gradient
across KS will cause south-southeasterly winds to increase to 10 to
20 MPH with some wind gusts to around 30 MPH across north central
KS. The southerly winds will warm high temperatures into the mid to
upper 40s across much of the CWA. The far northeast counties of the
CWA may only reach the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

Models still keeping generally west to northwest flow aloft
across the county warning area through the weekend. Temperatures
should moderate out ahead of the leeside sfc trough in the high
plains. Highs on Saturday should the warmest with readings generally
in the low to mid 50s. A slight cool down in the 45 to 50 degree
range on Sunday. The couple of shortwave troughs moving through the
plains Sunday and early Monday will pass south and north of the cwa
respectively. This will keep any precip to the southeast and
northeast of the area through the weekend and early next week. Highs
for Monday will again be in the upper 40s to around 50.

By Tuesday...the next strong longer wave trough will dig into the
Pacific Northwest which will induce strong warm air advection across
the central plains in response to cyclogenesis in the high
plains. Although clouds will be on the increase highs Tuesday
should still make it into the lower 50s most areas. As one piece
of the upper trough ejects out into the northern plains/southern
Canada by Wednesday morning...a cold front should push into the
northwest portions of the cwa with cooler temperatures and a
chance for rain most areas. Ahead of the front...highs Wednesday
should make the 50s with the 40s in the north central. The chance
for rain or snow will then linger across much of the cwa into
Thursday as the western/southern stream portion of the trough over
the southwestern CONUS begins to approach the plains. There may be
a lull in precip chances with a dry slot between the
approach/passage of the northern and southern streams systems late
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Temperatures on Thursday will be colder
all areas with the cold front well south of the cwa. Highs should
range from the middle 30s northcentral to the lower 40s south and
east of the Kansas Turnpike.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds shift from a
light northeast to southeast nearing 12kts around the noon hour
Friday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67