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000
FXUS63 KTOP 180425
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

The main area of showers (no lightning detected so far, and no
real instability to support thunder) has remained generally south
of a Minneapolis KS to Ottawa KS line, and should continue south
of this line before moving southeast/dissipating early this
evening. While that is the main area of rain, a few showers have
managed to pop up amidst modest low level convergence in northern
KS as well, with minimal coverage and duration. This activity
should also dissipate by early evening. By 8 PM or so, expect
precip to have come to an end across the area. At least scattered
cloud cover in the mid levels should persist through the night,
which should help limit fog potential despite light winds and cool
temperatures amidst a moistening boundary layer compared to recent
days. If skies clear, patchy fog would be a possibility...mainly
in north central KS and in valleys of eastern KS. Surface high
pressure will slide east of the area on Friday with south winds
and some warm advection into the region. Expect highs a bit
warmer, but still only topping out in the lower 80s with no precip
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

Saturday into Monday will see a building of an upper ridge from
the desert southwest into the middle Mississippi Valley. A much
warmer airmass will accompany this building ridge, although the
local area for the most part will be on the eastern edge of the
very warm air. High temperatures will be progressively warmer...
mid 80s for Saturday, 90s for Sunday, and mid 90s by Monday. The
ridge will also be somewhat flat...a bit of an odd orientation for
a late July ridge really...and a few disturbances will ride along
the northern and northeastern edge of the ridge, probably
impacting the local area at times. There is some indication of one
of these weak disturbances on Saturday night, but mid level
temperatures are so warm that precip should be very hard to come
by, and have a dry forecast at this point despite the NAM/GFS
suite attempting to develop light QPF into northern KS by Sunday
morning.

Monday night through the end of the forecast will see the warm
airmass maintained, although the temperatures may be impacted most
by precip/cloud cover and also a rather weak front that should be
near the forecast area by Tuesday night. This front will be driven
by a fairly strong short wave trough forecast to cross the region
(with high model confidence) Tuesday. Between this and a few
weaker waves, expect MCS`s to track across the northern and
central Plains into the Mississippi Valley through this time
frame. The exact timing and intensity of these systems is very
much uncertain, but the likelihood appears good enough to maintain
at least some precip chances from Monday night into Thursday.
Pending cloud cover and daytime precip, highs should be in the 90s
with lows in the low to middle 70s and plenty of humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2014

Models show mid level moisture remaining over the terminals
through mid morning. Because of this and afternoon cross over
temps 4 to 7 degrees below forecast lows, concerns for fog are to
low to include in the forecast at this time in spite of the MAV
guidance developing some MVFR VSBY. If skies clear out and temps
drop into the lower 50s, later shifts may need to watch out for
some ground fog formation. Otherwise I anticipate VFR conditions
prevailing due to a lack of forcing or strong moisture advection.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters