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000
FXUS63 KTOP 280442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders