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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
626 FXUS62 KTBW 191815 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 215 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Broad upper level ridging and strong surface high pressure continue to ridge west-southwestward over the southeast U.S. for the next couple of days. Interaction between this high pressure and Tropical Storm Alberto in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and a tropical wave northeast of the Bahamas is producing a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in gusty easterly winds over Florida for the next couple of days. By Friday morning, the upper ridge and surface high becomes more east-west oriented, while a tropical easterly wave moves across the Florida peninsula. This will produce a slightly decreased pressure gradient allowing for decreasing winds across the area. Models are also hinting out some slightly drier air with PWAT values dropping to around 1.3 - 1.5 inches. If this does pan out, it will be short-lived with moisture rebounding by Saturday with PWAT values back up to around 1.7 - 2.2 inches over the weekend and into next week. With all that being said, the forecast is really kind of a typical summertime forecast. Daily afternoon showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90`s and overnight lows in the 70`s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Gusty easterly winds will persist through the day with gusts up to 20 knots possible, with some higher gusts in thunderstorms. SHRA and TSRA will be moving into the area from the east, so will hold TEMPO TSRA at all terminals between 18-22Z this afternoon. Winds and rain chances decrease overnight after 01Z. Gusty winds expected once again by mid-morning on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A tight pressure gradient remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. This is producing gusty easterly winds that has warranted the continuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon. The gradient weakens by Thursday evening with decreasing winds expected for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. Daily afternoon showers and storms will be possible each day through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Pretty typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant moisture, warm temperatures and easterly winds, gusty at times. The only fire weather concern will be some high dispersions this afternoon and again on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated storms expected each afternoon through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 93 76 94 / 10 20 20 60 FMY 76 93 75 93 / 10 40 20 60 GIF 74 90 74 95 / 30 30 20 60 SRQ 75 94 75 94 / 10 20 30 60 BKV 72 93 72 96 / 10 20 20 60 SPG 80 94 79 94 / 10 20 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...Close